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4QCY24: A one-stop guide to the key macro/financial indicators

* Global equity markets remained buoyant in 4QCY24, though bond yields hardened and US Dollar (USD) strengthened. The anticipation and the eventual win of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections supported these movements in the financial markets, which continued in Jan’25 as well.

* World real GDP growth was stable at 3.0% for the fourth consecutive quarter in 3QCY24. Although India’s growth weakened to 5.4% in 3QCY24, it was still the world’s fastest-growing economy for the fourth consecutive quarter. Retail sales growth remained stable at 2-3%, with subdued growth (of 1-2%) in industrial production.

* Global inflation has eased in recent months, but the last-mile journey is turning out to be very difficult as both headline and core inflation have been stable at about 2.5% during the past 3-4 months.

* Monetary stimulus is wearing off globally (shown by the shrinking size of central banks’ balance sheets), though the global fiscal deficit likely widened in 2HCY24. Most central banks have already cut interest rates starting from 4QCY24.

* Lastly, the US housing market and labor market continue to show resilience, though China’s real estate market remains in the doldrums.

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