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TRAI’s Oct’24 subscriber (subs) data shows some moderation in the pace of sim consolidation in the lower ARPU segment on account of the Jul’24 tariff hike by all three private telcos (while BSNL didn’t announce any tariff hike). Jio/VIL lost a further 3.8mn/2mn overall subs while Bharti added 1.9mn subs in Oct'24 and BSNL added 0.5mn subs; hence, cumulative subs decline for the overall industry was lower at 3.3mn in Oct’24 vs. 10.1mn subs loss in Sep’24. Further, the industry’s MBB (mobile broadband — 3G+4G+5G) subs loss was also lower at 4mn in Oct'24 due to decline of 3.8mn/1.4mn/0.9mn for Jio/ BSNL/VIL while Bharti registered MBB subs gains of 2.1mn. Moreover, the industry’s active subs grew by 6.9mn in Oct’24, led by rise of 3.8mn/2.7mn/1mn for Jio/Bharti/BSNL but partly offset by decline of 0.7mn for VIL. Jio's overall and MBB subs declining trend continued while its active subs addition continued to be strong in Oct'24, leading to improved VLR ratio of 97.5% in Oct’24 (vs.95.8% in Sep’24). Bharti’s overall MBB and active subs increased while VIL’s overall MBB as well as active subs continued to decline in Oct’24. We believe the SIM consolidation trend seen post the Jul'24 tariff hike is largely behind us and was limited largely to lower-end subs; hence, it is not a reason for concern for Jio/Bharti. Separately, Jio continues to register robust FTTH additions at 0.63mn driven by FWA rollout (targeting 1mn monthly addition) and even Bharti also registered strong FTTH additions at 0.43mn in Oct'24 (vs. 0.19mn in Sep'24).

* Jio’s net subs decline further by 3.8mn in Oct’24, though its active subs gain strong at 3.8mn:

Jio’s net subs declined further by 3.8mn in Oct’24 (though it moderated from significant net subs loss of 8mn in Sep’24) after 28 consecutive months of subs gains during Mar’22-Jun’24. Jio had earlier reported an even sharper net subs loss of 9.3mn/12.9mn/19mn in Jan’22/Dec’21/Sep’21 due to sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike and repurposing of customer retention efforts for low-ARPU subscribers. However, Jio’s active subs addition continues to be strong at 3.8mn in Oct'24. Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio improved further to 97.5% in Oct’24 vs.95.8% in Sep’24 vs. 99.5% for Bharti and 85% for VIL and 59.5% for BSNL.

* Bharti’s MBB subs addition improves to 2.1mn in Oct’24; also gains 1.9mn overall subs and 2.7mn active subs:

Bharti’s MBB subs addition again picked up pace, and it added 2.1mn MBB subs in Oct’24 (after adding only 0.4mn each in Aug’24 and Sep’24), back in line with MBB subs addition trend of 1.5mn-4mn each month during Feb’22-Jul’24 (except for decline of 0.3mn in Apr’22 and muted addition of 0.5mn in Oct’23). Further, it gained 1.9mn overall subs and 2.7mn active subs in Oct’24 (after witnessing overall and active subs loss in Jul'24-Sep'24). This is in line with management commentary post 2QFY25 results that sim consolidation trend has normalised from Oct'24. Further, its VLR ratio strengthened to 99.5% in Oct’24 (vs. 99.3% in Sep’24).

* VIL’s MBB subs loss at 0.9mn in Oct’24; decline continues in its overall and active subs:

VIL’s MBB subs base declined further by 0.9mn in Oct’24, the 10th time in the last 21 months, primarily driven by delay in its 5G rollout and 4G coverage gaps; with this, Jan’22-Oct’24 cumulatively witnessed only 3.3mn rise in MBB subs. Further, its active subs base declined by 0.7mn (in line with the declining trajectory witnessed since the last many months except in Sep’23). Moreover, overall subs base fell by 2mn in Oct’24, continuing the downward trend due to churn in lower ARPU segments given the sharp hike in entry level prepaid tariffs, followed by the Jul’24 tariff hike. VIL's continued subs loss is a key concern; the management earlier said it’s hopeful of the ongoing network expansion capex to turn around the subs loss by end-FY25 though it expressed difficulty in predicting the timeline for the same.

* BSNL’s overall and active subs gains momentum slow down; also registers MBB subs loss of 1.4mn in Oct’24:

All three private telcos hiked their tariffs by 15-17% in the 1 st week of Jul'24 while BSNL kept its tariff unchanged. This has turned out to be positive for BSNL, whose overall subs rose by 0.5mn in Oct’24 (though it further moderated from 0.8/2.5/2.9mn in Sep’24/Aug’24/Jul’24) while its active subs increased by 1mn (vs. 1.1mn/4.2/2.9mnmn in Sep’24/Aug’24/Jul’24). However, MBB subs declined by 1.4mn (after adding 12.7mn MBB subs cumulatively over Jul’24-Sep’24). In its 2QFY25 concall, the VIL management also indicated that subs’ port-outs to BSNL have started declining since Aug’24.

* Jio registers robust FTTH additions at 0.62mn driven by FWA rollout (targeting 1mn monthly addition), Bharti also picks up pace with 0.43mn FTHH subs additions:

Jio continues to record robust FTTH subs additions at 0.63mn in Oct’24 (vs. 0.62mn in Sep’24) driven by its aggressive push of JioAirFiber pan-India coverage (JioAirFiber is now available in +5,900 cities/towns). Hence, Jio’s FTTH market share strengthened to 33.1% in Oct’24 (vs. 32.5% in Sep’24). During RIL’s recent AGM, the management highlighted that JioAirFiber added its first 1mn homes in 6 months and the next 1mn homes in next 100 days, and it aims to add 1mn homes every month, going forward, and it has reiterated its target to connect 100mn homes via FTTH and AirFiber. Further, Bharti also registered strong FTTH additions at 0.43mn in Oct'24 (vs. 0.19mn in Sep'24) - probably due to rural expansion and FWA rollouts.

* Jio continues to gain M2M subs market share from Bharti/VIL, but still Bharti leads the segment with ~52% market share, followed by VIL:

Industry's M2M subs base increased by 1.5mn to 56.1mn in Oct'24, led by rise of 0.64mn/0.60mn/0.19mn/0.04mn for Bharti/Jio/VIL/BSNL. Hence, Jio's M2M subs market share improved to 16% in Oct’24 (from 15.3% in Sep'24). Bharti continued to lead with 51.8% M2M subs market share (though lower vs. 52% in Sep'24). Similarly, VIL's market share also declined to 26.8% (vs. 27.1% in Sep'24); while BSNL's market share remained low at 5.5% (unchanged MoM).

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