Telecom Sector Update : Tariff hike leading to a decline in subscribers By Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
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Bharti, VIL, and RJio lost subscribers while BSNL gained from them.
* Bharti - Impact on lower-end subscribers; continued growth in 4G/5G subscribers
* RJio - Loss in 4G/5G subscribers while lower-end subscribers remained stable
* VIL - Continued loss in lower-end and 4G/5G subscribers
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) released the subscriber data for Jul’24. The key highlights are as follows:
* Major SIM consolidation occurred in the rural area:
* The industry’s gross subscribers declined 0.9m MoM (vs. a gain of 1.6m in Jun’24), bringing the total base to 1,170m. The decline was led by the price hike implemented by all three private telecom operators. RJio, Bharti, and VIL lost 0.8m, 1.7m, and 1.4m subscribers MoM, respectively, while BSNL emerged as the winner by gaining 2.9m subscribers MoM, as it did not implement any tariff hike.
* The active subscriber base declined 1.5m MoM to 1,060m (vs. 1.3m gain in Jun’24). Over the last six months, the average addition was 2.2m per month. RJio, Bharti, and VIL lost 0.2m, 1.2m, and 3m subscribers, respectively, while BSNL gained 2.9m subscribers.
* The industry’s rural subscriber base declined 1.4m MoM (vs. +0.7m in Apr’24) to 534.1m, primarily due to VIL/Bharti losing 1m/1.8m rural subscribers. RJio continued to lead the rural markets with an addition of 1.2m subscribers, accounting for 39.4% share (+10bp MoM), followed by Bharti at 35.5% (-20bp MoM) and VIL at 19.8% (-10bp MoM). According to Jul’24 data, majority of the SIM consolidation occurred in rural areas (refer to Exhibit 11).
* The industry’s 4G subscriber additions were strong at 5.2m MoM (vs. +5.1m in Jun’24 and average 5.5m additions per month in the last six months), bringing the total to 903m (85.3% of active subscribers). RJio/VIL experienced a decrease of 0.8m/1.1m in subscribers, while Bharti added 2.6m subscribers MoM.
* Mobile Number Portability (MNP): The total MNP requests increased consistently, validated by a higher churn and SIM consolidation. The number of MNP requests stood at 13.68m (vs. 11.84m in Jun’24), representing 1.3% of the total active subscribers.
* Bharti - Majority of the subscriber loss occurred in the rural area (1.8m loss), while 0.1m subscribers were gained in the urban area and 2.6m in 4G/5G. The company’s overall gross/active subscriber loss was 1.7m/1.2m (vs. +1.3m/+0.7m in Jun’24 and average +1.2m per month in the last six months). Its active market share declined 10bp MoM to 36.2%. However, the company gained 2.6m subscribers (vs. +3.2m in Jun’24), bringing its total 4G subscriber base to 276m (71% of gross subscribers).
* RJio - The company continued to maintain subscribers in the rural area (+0.1m MoM) but lost 0.9m urban/4G/5G subscribers to BSNL. The company’s gross/active subscribers declined 0.8m/0.2m MoM (vs. +1.9m/4m in Jun’24). Its active market share remained flat at 41.6% (the highest in the industry). Its 4G subscribers declined 0.8m MoM (vs. +1.9m in Jun’24) and stood at 476m.
* VIL continued to lose subscribers in rural/urban areas as well as in 4G. It lost 1m/0.4m subscribers in rural/urban areas (in urban to BSNL). It witnessed a 1.4m/3m MoM decline in gross/active subscribers (vs. 0.9m/2.7m loss in Jun’24). Its active market share contracted to 17.5% (-20bp MoM). Its 4G subscriber base also declined 1.1m MoM (vs. +0.6m in Jun’24) to 127m (59% of gross subscribers).
* BSNL emerged as the only winner, gaining 1.2m/1.7m subscribers in rural/urban areas and 4.5m in MBB. It witnessed a +2.9m MoM increase in both gross/active subscribers (vs. 0.7m/0.6m loss in Jun’24). Its active market share increased to 4.7% (+30bp MoM). Its 4G subscriber base also increased 4.5m MoM (vs. -0.5m in Jun’24) to 25m (28% of gross subscribers).
* Wired broadband subscribers in the industry increased 150k MoM to 41.98m (vs. +520k in Jun’24), primarily due to RJio/Bharti adding 450k/120k subscribers MoM (vs. +410k/90k in Jun’24). RJio is aggressively rolling out JioAirFiber, which may be aiding this growth. BSNL’s net subscribers remained flat MoM (vs. +10k in Jun’24).
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