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Growth dips to 4%

IPM grew by ~4% YoY in Feb’25 (down from 8.5% in Jan’25), this lags 3Y CAGR of ~8%. It grew 7.4% YoY based on MAT Feb’25, driven by 4% price, ~1% volume and 2% NI growth. In Feb’25, both acute and chronic segment growth were subdued vs Jan’25 levels. Chronic segment grew 5% YoY while acute growth came in at 3% YoY. Therapy outperformers during the month were Urology (+10%), GI (+8%) and Cardiac (+7%). Top performers in the listed universe were P&G Health (+15%), FDC (+14%), IPCA (+11%) and JBCP (+10%). Our coverage outperformers were IPCA, JBCP, ZYDUSLIF, SUNP, CIPLA, and LPC while TRP and DRRD underperformed IPM. We believe that price growth of 4-5%, NI of 2-3% and volume growth of ~1% will drive high single-digit FY25 IPM growth.

* IPCA, JBCP, ZYDUSLIF, SUNP, CIPLA, and LPC outperform IPM: Based on Feb’25 IPM data, Sun retained its top spot with ~8% market share (ms). For the same period, Alkem, Glaxo and FDC have improved their rank by 1 each to 5 th, 14th and 22 nd respectively. For the month of Feb’25, our coverage outperformers were IPCA, JBCP, ZYDUSLIF, SUNP, CIPLA, and LPC, delivering 11%/10%/8%/8%/5%/5% YoY growth respectively. TRP and DRRD underperformed the IPM due to weak performance of top therapies (VMN, Pain) for TRP, and (GI, Respi, Pain) for DRRD. We expect chronic-focused players to continue to deliver double-digit growth. Indian companies registered 4.3% growth during the month while MNC’s grew 3.2%.

* Volume growth at ~1% in MAT Feb’25: IPM growth of 7% based on MAT Feb’25 was driven by price growth of 4%, NI growth of 2% and volume growth of just 1%. Unit growth in Feb’25 was negative. CIPLA, IPCA reported positive unit growth this month. Overall, we expect high single-digit growth for IPM in FY25 driven by price growth of 4- 5%, NI of 2-3% and volume growth of 1%.

* Urology, GI outperform: Therapy outperformance was led by Urology and GI which grew 10%/8% respectively. While IPM’s top therapy, Cardiac, grew 7% YoY growth in Feb’25, significantly ahead of the IPM. Chronic and Acute therapies reported 5%/3% YoY growth respectively during the month. Growth was dragged by Gynaec., Anti-infectives and Respiratory. In the Anti-diabetic segment, SUNP reported 14.5% growth, while Abbott reported flat growth. Ipca has consistently outperformed market growth in the Pain segment led by the Zerodol franchise. While Derma growth was a subdued at 3.7% YoY in Feb‘25, DRRD reported 10% growth aided by Venusia. While Cardiac has grown ahead of IPM, SUNP continues to underperform in this segment.

* Feb’25 Top brands’ performance: Electral is claimed No. 1 position in Feb’25 growing 44%. IPCA’s Zerodol-SP gained three ranks and grew 13%. Rybelsus (semaglutide) continued to scale-up with 44% growth. Cipla’s top 10 brands reported 5% YoY growth – Foracort (slipped to the second largest brand in Feb’25) recorded flat growth for the month. Zydus’ Lipaglyn maintained double-digit trajectoryof 85%. IPCA’s Zerodol franchise continued its growth, led by Zerodol-SP (+13% YoY). GLXO’s top brand Augmentin declined 6% YoY, with other key top brands, viz. Calpol, T-bact and Betnovate-N, reporting -7%/+3%/-19% growth respectively. JB Pharma’s Azmarda grew 10% YoY and DRRD’s Cidmus grew 14%. Sun’s growth was driven by steady performance of smaller brands. Sanofi’s Lantus declined 7% YoY (Toujeou grew +6%YoY).

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