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* Wireless subs: RJio’s inactive subs cleanup continues; subs recover for Bharti

* The industry’s wireless subscribers dipped further by 3.3m MoM (following a ~17m decline in 2QFY25), largely due to the cleanup of inactive subscribers by RJio. However, the impact of tariff hike-led SIM consolidation seems largely behind with net adds recovering for Bharti and gains moderating for BSNL. Excluding IoT devices, wireless subs base declined ~4.8m in Oct’24 (vs. -18.9m in 2QFY25).

* After three months of decline, Bharti added 1.9m net wireless subs in Oct’24.

VIL continued to lose subscribers with ~2m net declines in Oct’24 (higher decline vs. ~1.6m monthly declines on average in 2QFY25).

* BSNL’s net adds further moderated to 0.5m in Oct’24 (vs. 6.3m net adds in 2QFY25), indicating stabilization of the SIM consolidation impact.

* RJio’s wireless subs declined further by 3.8m in Oct’24 (after ~13m net declines in 2QFY25). However, we believe the churn was likely restricted to inactive subs.

* The Mobile Number Portability (MNP) requests remained elevated at 13.5m in Oct’24 (vs. 12.5m monthly average in CY24TD).

* VLR subs: Robust VLR additions drive all-time high VLR proportion for RJio

* VLR (or peak active) subscriber base was up ~7m MoM (vs. 1.6m net declines in Sep’24), led by robust VLR additions for Bharti and RJio.

* Despite ~4m wireless subs decline, RJio’s VLR subs base rose further by ~4m MoM in Oct’24, taking its VLR proportion to an all-time high of 97.5%.

* After three months of VLR subs decline, Bharti added ~3m VLR subs in Oct’24, while VLR subs decline continued for VIL with a 0.7m decline (though improved compared to the ~2m monthly VLR decline in CY24TD).

* BSNL’s VLR additions moderated further to 0.9m (vs. 8.2m additions in 2QFY25).

* Mobile Broadband (MBB) subs: RJio’s inactive subs base cleanup led declines

* The industry’s MBB subs declined further by ~4m in Oct’24 (after a 5.6m net decline in Sep’24), primarily due to ~4m decline for RJio.

* Following a muted Aug-Sep’24, Bharti’s MBB net adds improved to 2.1m in Oct’24 (vs. ~1.9m monthly net adds on average in CY24TD), while VIL’s MBB subs declined 0.9m MoM in Oct’24.

* After three months of net additions, BSNL’s MBB subs dipped 1.4m in Oct’24, indicating a reversal in subscriber trends in favor of private telcos.

* MBB subscriber mix was stable at ~78% of the industry’s wireless subs (though up ~410bp YoY). Bharti’s MBB subs proportion was up ~590bp YoY at ~72.3%.

* Fixed Broadband (FBB) subs: Bharti and RJio continue to expand market share

* The industry’s FBB subs rose 1.03m MoM to 44.7m (+20% YoY), largely driven by robust 630k net adds for RJio and further ramp-up in Bharti’s net adds to 430k, likely driven by the ramp-up in AirFiber offerings.

* Bharti and RJio’s market share inched up 60bp MoM each, and their combined market share in FBB now stands at ~53% (vs. 46% YoY). We expect India’s FBB market to also turn into an effective duopoly in the longer term.

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