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Silver prices surged nearly 10% over the week to trade close to $80, supported by tightening global supply, strong investment inflows, and rising geopolitical risks. Weaker-than-expected US jobs data reinforced expectations of faster Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting safe-haven demand. Market volatility has increased due to CME margin hikes and annual commodity index rebalancing. While long-term fundamentals remain bullish amid persistent supply deficits and critical mineral status, near-term direction hinges on key technical supports.

Key Highlights

* Silver jumped ~10% in a week, closing near $80

* Supply constraints and investment demand underpin prices

* Fed rate-cut expectations boost safe-haven buying

* CME margin hikes and index rebalancing add volatility

Silver prices delivered a strong weekly performance, rising nearly 10% to settle close to the $80 mark, as tightening supply conditions and renewed safe-haven demand lifted market sentiment. The rally reflects a combination of macroeconomic triggers and structural supply constraints that continue to define the long-term bullish narrative for the metal.

Price gains were supported by weaker-than-expected US labor market data, which showed subdued job growth and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest-rate cuts in 2026. Lower rate expectations typically pressure the US dollar, improving the appeal of dollar-denominated precious metals such as silver. Rising geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over tariff policies further strengthened investment flows.

On the supply side, global inventories remain tight. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade, prompting record exports of more than 660 tons in October to ease shortages in London. Although silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes by end-December, liquidity conditions remain strained, with elevated lease rates highlighting ongoing physical tightness. The inclusion of silver in the US Geological Survey’s 2025 Critical Minerals List has also added a strategic premium to prices.

Market volatility has intensified following CME margin hikes late last year and ahead of annual commodity index rebalancing, which could see the liquidation of around 12,000 futures contracts in mid-January.

Despite near-term volatility from technical and positioning factors, silver’s long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by persistent supply deficits, strategic demand, and an improving macro environment.