Rupee likely to inch up ahead of RBI decision after recovery tempers bearish run
The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly firmer on Friday ahead of the central bank's interest rate decision, supported by a brief recovery in the prior session that helped cool the recent bearish run.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 89.86-89.88 range versus the U.S. dollar, after settling at 89.9750 on Thursday.
The rupee had slid to an all-time low of 90.42 on Thursday before staging a recovery, helped by what one banker said was "natural" dollar selling.
The banker said that the quick run higher on dollar/rupee to near 90.50 "likely convinced a section of exporters and probably a few speculative accounts that this was a good level to sell into."
"In hindsight, a correction was clearly due," he added. "The question now is how long and to what extent this correction will run."
Before Thursday's recovery, the currency had declined more than 1% and was on a six-day losing streak, amplifying concerns about the underlying demand-supply imbalance in dollars.
The primary focus now shifts to the Reserve Bank of India's rate decision in a couple of hours, followed by a press conference, where the RBI chief is expected to be asked questions on the rupee's recent decline.
The overnight index swap market is pricing in virtually no chance of a rate cut. At the same time, economists are more divided on the outcome, with opinions split between a status quo move and a 25-basis-point reduction.
The RBI is likely to take a pause on interest rate cuts, despite the low inflation and robust GDP at this point, MUFG Bank said in a note.
The bank thinks the RBI may unveil steps to attract capital inflows, including from Non-Resident Indians, and says comments from the central bank chief on the rupee and forex outlook will be closely watched.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 90.05; onshore one-month forward premium at 18.75 paisa
** Dollar index down at 98.99
** Brent crude futures down 0.2% at $63.2 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.0904%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $526.5 million worth of Indian shares on December 4
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $32.2 million worth of Indian bonds on December 4
