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Below the Quote on Gold, Silver and Crude Oil by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Silver stole the limelight again on Monday, extending the strong momentum from Friday’s 6% surge, as decade-low Chinese inventories, persistent supply-tightness concerns, elevated borrowing costs and ETF demand pushed COMEX prices to a fresh record of $59.4 per ounce. Global silver ETFs saw inflows of 9.7 million ounces last week, bringing year-to-date additions to 113.4 million ounces.

Meanwhile, Gold finished the day little changed after briefly reaching a six-week high of $4,264 an ounce, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut. CME data indicate markets now assign nearly an 87% probability to a December cut. The latest economic data added to the cautious tone, with the Institute for Supply Management reporting that U.S. manufacturing contracted for a ninth consecutive month as the PMI slipped to 48.2. Today, gold eased to $4,220 on profit-taking, while silver declined 2% to $57.2 as investors took a breather after the metal’s accelerated six-day advance and awaited key US data releases later in the week. 

WTI crude oil climbed to $60/bbl yesterday after OPEC+ kept production plans unchanged and maintained its three-month pause on output increases for early 2026. The rise was amplified by geopolitical tensions, as ongoing Russia-Ukraine strikes despite diplomatic efforts keeps markets skeptical of a Ukraine peace deal. Ukraine’s attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, Kazakhstan’s main crude export route, along with drone strikes on a Russian refinery and the Beriev aviation plant in the Rostov region added a notable risk premium. Further support came from comments by U.S. President Trump that airspace over and around Venezuela should be considered closed, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions. Today, oil prices are holding their gains and trade above $59.5 as markets assess these renewed geopolitical risks, including Ukraine’s stepped-up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and the possibility of U.S. military action in Venezuela.

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