Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
After a sharp pullback from all-time highs last week, Comex Gold edged higher today as US election uncertainty weighed on dollar and treasury yields. President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris prompted speculation on whether it would benefit or hinder Donald Trump's chances of returning to the White House. Markets are now eagerly anticipating the release of several key economic indicators ahead of the FOMC policy decision next week. As per Bloomberg estimates, US Q2 GDP to expand at a faster pace of 1.9% vs 1.4% in Q1, but still significantly lower compared to 3.3% in Q4 2023, while core PCE inflation, Fed's preferred price gauge is expected to hold steady at 0.1% mom in June, with the year-over-year change falling to 2.5% from 2.6% previously.
WTI Crude oil saw a notable recovery, climbing to $80.69 per barrel, supported by a weaker dollar and concerns over wildfires in Alberta, Canada, which threatened oil supplies. An estimated 348,000 barrels a day of production are at risk, according to Alberta Wildfire and Alberta Energy Regulator data. Also, surprise PBoC short term rate cut to boost economic growth may provide a cushion to oil prices which fell 2% last week following disappointment from the Third Plenum. PBOC’s decision earlier Monday to trim seven-day reverse repo rate is lowered by 10 basis points to 1.7%, for the first time in almost a year prompted Chinese banks cut their main benchmark lending rate for the first time since August 2023. The one-year loan prime rate was reduced to 3.35% from 3.45% previously and five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was lowered to 3.85% from 3.95%, according to a statement by the People’s Bank of China on Monday.
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