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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

COMEX gold prices tumbled nearly 4% on Wednesday to $3,270.8 per ounce, as risk-on sentiment gained traction amid growing optimism over US-China trade talks. Also, President Donald Trump dialed back threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, further weighing on safe haven bids. Additionally, renewed strength in the US dollar close to the 100 mark, kept gold prices under pressure, leading to a close below the key $3,300/oz level. Today, gold rebounded sharply to $3377/oz earlier in the session as mixed signals from the Trump administration renewed market uncertainty. US Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified that no unilateral tariff reductions are planned without reciprocal actions from China, dampening earlier optimism. Upcoming economic data including jobless claims, durable goods orders, and home sales figures could influence price direction later in the day.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $61.5 per barrel yesterday, hurt by renewed oversupply fears on Kazakhstan’s initial stance of prioritizing national interests over its OPEC+ obligations. Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov stated the country would set output levels based on its own priorities, although he later reiterated Kazakhstan's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement. Despite this clarification, bearish sentiment persisted. Additional pressure came from reports that several OPEC+ members may propose accelerated production increases for the second month in June. Still, crude managed a modest recovery by the end of the session, closing above $62 per barrel, supported by positive developments in US-China trade discussions and large draws in refined product inventories. According to the EIA, US crude stocks increased by 200,000 barrels for the week ending April 18. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate inventories declined sharply, by 4.5 million and 2.4 million barrels, respectively. Today, oil is hovering around $62.3 per barrel amid OPEC+ internal tensions and the Trump administration’s fluctuating stance on trade tariffs.