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The 2025/26 U.S. rice outlook anticipates larger supplies, lower exports, higher domestic consumption, and increased ending stocks. U.S. production is forecast at 219.3 million cwt, a slight decrease due to lower yields and reduced harvested area. Meanwhile, the season-average farm price is expected to drop to \$13.20 per cwt. Global rice production is projected to hit a record 538.7 million tons, with India, Bangladesh, and China leading the way. Despite increased global supplies, global trade is forecast to decline slightly to 60.8 million tons. India continues to dominate global rice exports, accounting for nearly 40% of the market share.

Key Highlights

* U.S. rice production forecasted at 219.3 million cwt, down 1%.

* U.S. rice exports expected to fall to 94.0 million cwt.

* Global rice production reaches a record 538.7 million tons.

* India remains the world’s largest rice exporter, leading with 24.0 million tons.

* U.S. rice season-average farm price expected to drop to \$13.20 per cwt.

The 2025/26 U.S. rice outlook signals a year of larger supplies, but lower exports and a decrease in farm prices. U.S. rice production is forecast at 219.3 million cwt, which is a 1% reduction from the previous year, largely due to a decline in harvested area and lower yields. Long-grain production is projected to be reduced by 4.8 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain production is expected to rise by 2.0 million cwt. This lower production is expected to result in a decrease in the season-average farm price, which is projected to fall to \$13.20 per cwt, down from \$15.20 last year.

On the global stage, rice production is forecast to reach a record 538.7 million tons, driven by increases in India, Bangladesh, and China. India will continue to lead in global rice exports, with a projected 24.0 million tons, maintaining almost 40% of the global trade share. However, global rice trade is expected to slightly decrease, with a forecast of 60.8 million tons due to India’s competitive pricing and larger exports. Despite the increase in supply, global consumption is expected to hit a record 538.8 million tons, with significant gains in India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Nigeria.

Overall, while the U.S. sees a reduction in exports and prices, global rice supply and demand continue to grow, with India playing a major role in shaping global trade.

In conclusion, the rice market is poised for growth globally, but with challenges in U.S. exports and lower prices for domestic farmers.

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