IMD Predicts Above-Normal Heatwave and Rainfall in May 2025 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of India in May 2025, with an expected increase in heatwave days in several regions, including Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. Despite the intense heat, occasional thunderstorms will help to moderate temperatures compared to the extreme conditions of May 2024. The IMD also predicts normal to above-normal rainfall across the country, except for some parts of North-West, Central, and North-East India. Additionally, the IMD confirmed a neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and Indian Ocean Dipole, suggesting favorable conditions for the monsoon season. Relief is expected in early May due to a western disturbance.
Key Highlights
* IMD predicts above-normal temperatures and more heatwave days in May 2025.
* Occasional thunderstorms will prevent extreme heat like in May 2024.
* Above-normal rainfall expected for most parts of India.
* Neutral ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole signals positive monsoon conditions.
* Western disturbance to provide temporary relief in early May.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal maximum temperatures for May 2025, with most regions in India likely to experience heatwave conditions. The IMD predicts an increase in heatwave days, particularly in areas such as Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar, where temperatures will exceed the normal range by one to four days. However, occasional thunderstorms are expected to provide some relief, preventing the extreme heat levels witnessed in May 2024.
While daytime temperatures are expected to rise, the IMD also forecasts above-normal minimum temperatures, especially in western Rajasthan and Gujarat, which may experience warmer nights compared to other regions. Overall, the IMD anticipates normal to above-normal rainfall in most parts of the country, with the exception of some areas in North-West, Central, and North-East India.
The weather department has also predicted a neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the monsoon season, which are considered favorable for good rainfall. The IMD’s forecast for the monsoon season indicates that rainfall will likely be above normal, with an expected 105% of the long-period average (LPA), which is around 87 cm during June to September 2025.
The IMD chief, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, highlighted that the initial week of May may bring cooler temperatures due to a western disturbance passing from west to east. This will bring temporary relief before the heat intensifies.
In conclusion, while May will see above-normal temperatures and heatwave conditions, the forecasted thunderstorms and the neutral ENSO are expected to provide some balance, making the overall weather outlook for May 2025 relatively manageable.
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