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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 09th Sept 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold surged to a record high of $3,646 per ounce on Monday, driven by soft U.S. labor market data that prompted traders to price in three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, including a 25 bps cut at the upcoming September meeting. The U.S. dollar remained under pressure, weighed down by concerns over Federal Reserve independence. Meanwhile, China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak for the tenth consecutive month, adding 0.06 million troy ounces to its reserves in August. Today, gold extended gains to fresh all-time highs of $3655/oz ahead of the benchmark annual revision of U.S. jobs data, due later today. Market participants are also closely watching U.S. inflation data later this week, which could influence the trajectory of rate cuts in Q4, although it’s unlikely to alter expectations for a September move.

WTI crude oil surged above $63/bbl on Monday, buoyed by a smaller-than-expected output increase from OPEC+ and growing prospects of additional sanctions on Russian energy exports. U.S. President Trump indicated readiness to proceed with a second phase of sanctions against Russia, following Russia’s largest aerial assault on Ukraine to date, involving over 800 drones and missiles. However, prices retreated to close at $62.3/bbl after Saudi Aramco cut the official selling price (OSP) for all its crude grades to Asia for next month, signaling softening regional demand. Today, oil prices steadied above $62.5/bbl, supported by the modest OPEC+ supply increase and growing speculation that Russia’s first-ever strike on Ukraine’s main government building in Kyiv could trigger additional sanctions, potentially tightening global oil supplies.