IGI Logo

Indian equity markets are likely to make a cautious start on Wednesday, as the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations continued to create nervousness across global markets. Further, traders may remain cautious as the crude oil prices remain firm above $100 per barrel, amid uncertainty elevated around the Strait of Hormuz and broader global energy supplies. Additionally, sentiments may remain downbeat as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 1,959.39 crore on Tuesday. 

Some of the key factors to be watched: 

CPI based retail inflation rises to 3.48% in April on uptick in food prices: Retail inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) with base year 2024 rose marginally to 3.48% (Provisional) in the month of April 2026 as compared to 3.40% (Final) in the preceding month, mainly due to an uptick in food prices. 

India-Oman FTA likely to come into force from June 1: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said that the free trade agreement (FTA) between India and Oman is expected to come into force from June 1. The pact was signed in December 2025.

West Asia crisis a balance of payments stress test, India better placed to navigate: Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said that the ongoing West Asia crisis is a ‘live balance of payments stress test’, with direct consequences for inflation, the current account, and the exchange rate, but India’s fiscal consolidation path, infrastructure investment and reforms provide it a base to navigate the current environment of conflict.

India plans 500 delegations, outreach to industry to boost FTA utilisation: Union Minister Piyush Goyal said the commerce ministry is preparing granular plans to boost the utilisation of free trade agreements (FTAs) by Indian industry, including sending 500 delegations abroad, training 1,000 people, and engaging with 1,600 industry chambers.

Reforms will continue; industry needs to spend more on R&D, shed protectionist instinct: NITI Aayog Member Rajiv Gauba said the government will continue with the reform agenda, getting into nuts and bolts of trust-based governance but industry needs to ramp up investment on R&D and shed protectionism to enable India to become an attractive global production and innovation hub.

Global front: US markets closed mostly in red on Tuesday as U.S. inflation climbed and oil gained for a third straight day as hopes faded for a Middle East peace deal to get ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday following overnight losses on Wall Street after U.S. inflation accelerated due to persistently high oil prices since the start of the Iran war.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Sensex and Nifty tumbling nearly 2 per cent, as elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the West Asia conflict clouded markets' confidence. Unabated foreign fund outflows and the rupee depreciating to a lifetime low also hit investor sentiment. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1456.04 points or 1.92% to 74,559.24 and the CNX Nifty was down by 436.30 points or 1.83% to 23,379.55. 

Some of the important factors in trade:

Crisil cuts India’s FY27 GDP forecast to 6.6%, flags rising inflation: Ratings agency - Crisil has projected that India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 6.6% in fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), down from 7.6% in FY26, citing high crude and commodity prices, weaker global growth, and a below-normal monsoon. 

Unemployment rate in urban India declines to 6.6% in January-March 2026: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) in its Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) has showed the unemployment rate among people aged 15 and above has declined marginally to 6.6% in January-March 2026 from 6.7% in October-December 2025. 

Indian industry needs to leverage, utilise India's newly finalised FTAs: Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has urged Indian industry to leverage and utilise India's newly finalised free trade agreements (FTAs), as these pacts offer trade and investment opportunities. He said that the country's track record in FTA utilisation is not great.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer