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Nifty :23815

Technical Outlook

Day that was

Indian equity market extended its decline for third-consecutive session and the Rupee hit a record low, triggered by escalating US-Iran tensions and surging oil prices. Nifty settled the day at 23815 down ~360 points. Market breadth was in favour of declines with an A/D ratio of 2.5:1. Nifty Mid and Small has relatively did well and declined only ~1% compared to benchmark. Sectorally, baring Pharma and FMCG all major indices closed in red while consumer durable and realty were the top loser. Technical Outlook:

• The index began the week with on a weak note, though it initially showed resilience by recovering from lower levels. This upward momentum was short-lived as significant selling pressure emerged near the morning gap resistance at 23,987. The daily price action resulted into a bearish candle with upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.

• Index is likely to start today’s session on a muted note tracking ongoing geopolitical conflict resulting into rise in crude prices. Key point to highlight is the Nifty continues to consolidate in the vicinity of 38% retracement of its previous 11% rally while basing around its 20-day EMA over the past three-weeks, Indicating extension of ongoing consolidation.

• Going ahead, we expect the index to consolidate within the 23,200- 24,400 range. A sustained close above 24,400 is required to trigger the next leg of upward momentum; else, the current consolidation phase is likely to extend. In the process, we expect volatility to remain elevated amid evolving geopolitical developments coupled with ongoing earnings season. In such a volatile environment, buying the dips would be the prudent strategy to adopt as strong support is placed at 23200 being 61.80% retracement of previous move (22182-24601) and the price gap support from 7 th April 2026. Our constructive bias is further validated by following observations: 1. The current uptrend is reinforced by participation across all sectors and robust market breadth as currently 83% of the Nifty 500 components are trading above their 50 days SMA compared to last week’s reading of 72%. While for 200 days SMA similar reading has improved from 40 % to 52%. This collective strength, paired with better-than-expected earnings in key pockets, augurs well for durability of ongoing up move. 2. While Midcaps are already trading at record highs, the Nifty remains 8% below its previous peak. Furthermore, 18 months breakout on the Nifty 500 vs. Nifty 100 ratio chart suggests that the broader market is positioned to continue outperforming its large-cap peers 3. Historically, the Nifty shares a positive correlation with its global peers. The current resilience across US and Asian equities provides a strong external tailwind, creating a favorable setup for the domestic market to narrow the performance gap through a catch-up activity Key Monitorable: A. Inflation data US & India B. IIP data

Intraday Rational:

• Trend – The index retraced only 38.2% of its previous 12-day rally over the last 10 days, signaling a healthy and a slow pace of retracement.

• Levels - Sell around 80% retracement of yesterday decline

Nifty Bank : 55310.55

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

The Bank Nifty Index continued its losing streak and closed negative for the day at 54478 down 1.5%. Nifty PSU Bank relatively underperformed , losing 2.36%.

Technical Outlook:

• Index failed to capitalized the initial recovery and settled the session near days low. Consequently, daily price action resulted into bear candle with lower high lower low , indicating corrective bias.

• Index is likely to start the session with a negative gap tracking ongoing geopolitical conflict resulting into rise in crude prices. Over past three weeks Index has retraced merely 38.2% of earlier 3 weeks rally indicating slower pace of retracement, highlighting healthy consolidation. Key point to highlight is that, index has closed below 20-day EMA suggesting further correction in coming sessions.

• Immediate support is placed at 54200 being gap-area formed on 19th March and in vicinity of 38.2% retracement of entire April rally (49954-57456). Below that next support is placed at 53700 levels.

• Nifty PSU Bank relatively underperformed closed below 200- day EMA . Sustainability above previous session high will be important for revival in upward momentum.

• Intraday Rational:

• Trend- The index retraced only 38.2% of its previous 12-day rally over the last 10 days, signaling a healthy and a slow pace of retracement.

• Levels- Sell around 80% retracement of yesterday decline

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