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Oil prices extended their rally on Wednesday amid continued disruption to Persian Gulf energy supplies and uncertainty around potential US– Iran talks, alongside the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged 5% to $118/bbl, remaining a key driver of volatility and a headwind for domestic markets. The Nifty index continued to consolidate within the previous session’s range on a closing basis. A decisive close above 24200 is crucial to unlock further upside, as this level acts as immediate resistance. On the downside, 24000 remains a strong support zone, with 23940 as a critical breakdown level. A sustained move above 24310 could trigger a meaningful breakout and signal a shift in momentum. Conversely, a breach below 23800 may accelerate the decline towards 23500–23150 levels. Momentum indicators suggest an ongoing consolidation phase, with ADX below 25 and RSI under 50. At the start of the new derivatives series, positioning data highlights the 24200–24300 Call OI zone as a significant hurdle for bullish revival, while support is gradually shifting towards 23500. Despite near-term consolidation, the broader market structure remains constructive above 22950. However, upside may stay capped due to elevated crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, all of which continue to weigh on overall sentiment.

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