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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot Gold is likely to move in a wide range amid ongoing uncertainty over US-Iran peace deal. Any positive sign on the peace agreement between the US and Iran could ease inflationary pressure and reduce concerns over interest rate hikes. Moreover, softening of US dollar and stabilizing US treasury yields could provide a firm floor to prices. Meanwhile, the latest CME FedWatch tool suggests a rise in the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike to 60%, from 51% a day ago could restrict its upside. Moreover, investors will keep an eye on key US economic numbers and Fed member Waller’s speech to get more clarity.

• MCX Gold June is expected to move in the band of Rs158,000 to Rs161,000.. Only a move above Rs161,000 it would rise towards Rs163,000.

• Spot silver is hovering in the broad range of $73 to $78.80. Any move outside of the range would give more clarity in price trend. MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a wide range of Rs269,000-Rs280,000. Only a move above Rs280,000 it would move to Rs283,500.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade within a tight range as persistent uncertainty over the US-Iran peace negotiations keeps the market cautious. A concrete confirmation of a diplomatic breakthrough would lower the likelihood of stricter monetary policy, improve risk appetite and global industrial demand. Furthermore, better-than-expected US manufacturing data would provide a reliable floor for the red metal. On the demand side, a steady Shanghai Yangshan copper premium at $71 per metric ton serves as a key indicator of resilient physical appetite from China, the world's top consumer.

• MCX Copper May is expected to move in the band of Rs1332-Rs1358 level with a positive bias. Only a move above Rs1358 , it would rise towards Rs1370 level.

• MCX Aluminum May is expected to hold its ground near Rs380-Rs382 level and move towards Rs390-Rs392 level. MCX Zinc May is likely to hold above Rs364 and move towards Rs370-Rs372 level. Only a move below Rs364 it would slip towards Rs360.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX crude oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile as intense negotiations between the US and Iran continue, with the complete dismantling of Tehran's nuclear program remains a nonnegotiable US demand. Adding to the geopolitical friction, Iran is reportedly working with Oman on a framework for a permanent toll system designed to formalize its control over maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. However, US President firmly rejected the proposal. This direct clash over maritime sovereignty introduces a massive risk premium to the energy markets. Meanwhile, investors will remain cautious and await further clarity.

• MCX Crude oil June is likely to move in a wide range of Rs 9200 and Rs9900 level. Only a move below Rs9200 it would correct further towards rs8800 levels.

• MCX Natural gas June is expected to face hurdle near Rs315 level and move lower towards Rs295-Rs290 level.

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