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Nifty :23654

Day that was.. Indian equity benchmarks concluded the session on a flat note to settle at 23645, despite positive global cues and decline crude prices. However, Market breadth was in favour of advance with an A/D ratio of 2:1. Broader markets relatively outperformed the benchmark, led by the Nifty Smallcap index which gained 0.60%. Sectorally, except for BFSI and IT, all major indices closed in the green, with Cement, Defense and Realty emerging as the top performers

Technical Outlook:

• After a gap up opening index failed to capitalize the initial up move as it faced stiffed resistance around 20 days EMA and gradually seen profit booking as the day progressed. Despite this retracement, the daily price action formed a higher high-low structure, indicating prolonged consolidation.

• This price action extended the consolidation phase into a seventh consecutive session, remaining tightly bound within the 23,200- 23,800 territory. This tight-range price behavior occurred while navigating geopolitical concerns, crude price volatility, shifting bond yields, and fluctuations in the USDINR pair. Ultimately, this prolonged sideways movement signifies a healthy consolidation process, effectively establishing a strong base for the next major leg upward.

• Going ahead, for a meaningful pullback to materialize, the index must decisively cross and sustain above its immediate resistance at the 20-day EMA and the upper band of the current consolidation zone at 23,800. Failing to do so will result in a prolonged consolidation within a narrow range of 23,200-23,800, while continuing to offer stock-specific opportunities as key support is placed at 23200 being 61.80% retracement of previous move (22182-24601) and the price gap support from 7th April 2026.

• Notably, We expect broader market to relatively outperform the large caps as the ratio chart of Nifty500 vs Nifty 100 has resolved breakout of past two years consolidation. Such breakout would result into acceleration in Midcap and small caps outperformance going ahead

• On the sectoral front, the IT index has staged a sharp 6% recovery from its decade-long rising trendline support, indicating bounce from key support amid oversold conditions. Historically, since CY06, the IT index has witnessed a maximum price-wise correction of 35%, with time-wise corrections lasting between six and seven quarters. Currently, the index has corrected 42% in past 6 quarter and approached its long-term rising trendline. This alignment with the historical rhythm offers a highly favorable risk-reward setup at the current juncture.

Intraday Rational:

• Trend – Index has been consolidating in 600 points range over past sevens sessions, highlighting prolonged consolidation

• Levels - Buy around 61.8% retracement of past two sessions

Nifty Bank : 53439

Technical Outlook

Day that was: The Bank Nifty Index concluded the day on a marginally negative note at 53439 on back of positive global cues. Nifty PSU Bank relatively outperformed, gaining 0.35%.

Technical Outlook:

• The index witnessed gap-up opening and failed to sustain at higher levels and gradually drifted towards 80% retracement from prior two days up move. The daily price action resulted into candle with higher high higher low indicating elevated buying demand.

• Index has formed higher high-higher low after 10 sessions decline but has failed to decisively close above previous session high. Going ahead, a decisive close above last sessions high (54109) is required to pause the ongoing corrective phase that would open the door for a pullback towards 20 days EMA that coincided with last week’s high of 55000. Failure to do so would result into prolongation of consolidation in 55000-52800 zone.

• Index is firmly holding above gap-area support formed on 7th April and 61.8% retracement of entire April rally (49954- 57456) at 52800 making it strong support in short term.

• Nifty PSU Bank formed candle with higher high lower low after 10 sessions decline and rebounded from crucial support zone of 7800 being placement of 52-week EMA coincided with April low of 7830. Thereby, holding 7800 level on a weekly closing basis is important to watch out for as that would help indexx to stage a recovery going ahead 

Intraday Rational:

• Trend-Supportive efforts emerged around 61.8% retracement of its preceding rally (49954-57456)

• Levels- Buy around 61.8% retracement of yesterday range

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