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Nifty :25807

Technical Outlook

Day that was.. Indian equity benchmark ended its four-day winning streak and closed the session on a negative note.

Nifty settle at 25807 down 0.50% amid negative global cues. Broader market moved in tandem with the benchmark with Nifty Mid and Smallcap index down 0.50% each. Sectorally, Barring Consumer durables and NBFC’s all the other indices closed in red, wherein IT, Realty and Oil&Gas were the top loser.

Technical Outlook:

* The Index opened with a gap-down, wherein an intraday pullback remained short-lived. As a result, the daily price action resulted in a bear candle carrying lower high-low formation, indicating extended breather.

* Index is likely to witness a gap-down opening, tracking global weakness amid fear of AI disruption. Going ahead, we believe index is undergoing a heathy retracement and setting the stage for the next leg of upmove towards the 26,350 mark in coming weeks.

* Key point to note is that, index has witnessed a constructive pullback after its recent sharp rally, retracing close to the 61.8% level of the preceding uptrend (24,680-26,341), while it continues to hold firmly above a cluster of key moving average with stock specific momentum reflects resilient participation beneath the surface, indicating underlying strength and constructive broader market structure.

* In the process, bouts of volatility amidst geopolitical development, inflation print and fag end of earnings season cannot be ruled out. In this backdrop, any decline should be capitalized to accumulate quality stocks with strong earnings as strong support is placed at 25200 being 61.8% retracement of recent up move (24571-26341) coincided with 200 days EMA.

Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

* The key index heavy weights like financials, oil & gas, Auto (carrying >50% cumulative weightage of Nifty) have regained the momentum which would provide impetus for next leg of up move

* On the broader market front, In line with our view Nifty midcap has rebounded from 52 weeks EMA which has been held firm since past nine months while small cap index witnessed sharp pullback from lower band of six months falling channel. The improving market breadth would result into broadening of the ongoing rally.

*  Market breadth has been witnessing improvement, as the percentage of stocks trading above their 50 days SMA has bounced from bearish extremes of 15% to 51% levels, while percentage of stocks above 200-day SMA within the Nifty 500 universe enhanced to 42%. Historically, such contractions in breadth have preceded durable market bottoms, with extreme bearish readings near 15% marking inflection points in the past

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Three-day upmove snapped, indicating prolonged consolidation

* Levels- Sell around previous session close Nifty :25807 Weekly Bar Chart MACD in daily has cross above zero line, indicating strengthening the trend February 13, 2026

Nifty Bank :60740

Technical Outlook

Day that was: Bank Nifty ended the day on a flat note at 60740, up 0.2%. The Nifty PSU Bank made new All time High closed marginally negative down 0.2%

Technical Outlook:

* Index opened on a negative note and traded within 267 points range throughout the session. The daily price action formed is small bodied candle with lower shadow indicating supportive efforts above gap-area.

* Index extended the breather for fourth consecutive session and holding above recent gap support area (60495-60150), indicating healthy consolidation. The index continues to trade decisively above its key moving averages and has sustained above the physiological level of 60,000 mark. This structural strength reinforces our bullish bias and supports maintaining a positive outlook going forward. We expect Index to gradually resolve higher and challenge its prior swing high of 61800 levels in coming weeks.

* On a broader perspective Index has staged a strong rebound from its previous resistance, now acting as support(57628) in line with the change-of-polarity principle, indicating resumption of uptrend. Any corrective declines from current levels should be viewed as buying opportunities as strong demand zone is identified near 59,300, being 50-day EMA and 61.8% retracement of the current up move (57,783-61,674).

* Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank Index made new All time high, forming higher high higher low on daily time frame, reinforcing near-term bullish momentum. Going forward, the index is expected to advance toward the 9,600 zone, corresponding to the measured range breakout of the 8,702–9,175 band

Intraday Rational

* Trend- Rebounded from former resistance now turned as support as per change of polarity principle.

* Levels – Sell around previous session close

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