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1.  The government budgeted GFD/GDP at 4.3% in the Union Budget 2027.
2. IT stocks came under sharp pressure after AI firm Anthropic unveiled new automation tools.
3. India and the United States announced a landmark trade deal.
4. The US Supreme Court, in a 6–3 majority, ruled the reciprocal tariff imposition by the US administration ineffective.
5. Gold and silver gained 7% and 8%, respectively; the Indian rupee appreciated 1.1%.
6. 3QFY26 net income of the Nifty-50 Index grew 9.8%, exceeding street expectations.

1. Headline CPI inflation in January stood at 2.75%, based on the new CPI series with 2024 as the base year.
2. WPI inflation for January was at 1.8% YoY compared to 0.8%.
3. As per the latest fortnightly data (15th Feb’26), system credit growth moderated to 13.7% YoY (14.6% YoY on 31st Jan’26), and deposit growth declined to 11.0% YoY (12.5% YoY on 31st Jan’26).
4. India’s IIP grew at a three-month low of 4.8% YoY in January 2026. This print was weaker than the previous two months (Nov–Dec’25) but remained robust relative to Apr–Oct’25 and came on a relatively strong base.
5. Q3FY26 GDP grew 7.8% YoY. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) growth remained strong at 9%; GFCF (investments) stayed buoyant at 8%; government consumption growth moderated to 5% YoY. Imports surged 9% YoY on a favourable base, while exports grew 6% on a high base. On a sequential basis, exports rose 5% QoQ, whereas imports declined by 1%.
6. Net GST receipts (gross GST after refunds) stood at Rs 1.61 tn, growing at a nine-month high of 7.9% YoY in Feb 2026. Net GST collections in 11MFY26 were 87.6% of FY26RE versus 91% during the same period in FY25. Overall, it appears there will be some shortfall in GST targets for FY26, though it should not be significant.

Outlook

At this juncture, we are seeing a mix of positives and a slew of uncertainties.
On the positive front, we have seen a healthy GDP print, the signing of two prospective trade deals with large trading partners, low interest rates, and cuts in various indirect taxes. We believe most of these are net positive contributors to the growth of the Indian economy.

On the other hand, we are seeing global geopolitical uncertainty and its consequent impact on trade routes, rising crude and possibly other commodity prices, and AI-related disruption across sectors such as IT services, Software as a Service (SaaS), and other tech-oriented or tech-dependent companies.

We reckon many of the geopolitics-related impacts could be transitory in nature, while AI-related impacts are more long-term and would necessitate changes in business models, faster pivots, and greater agility by impacted companies and not all may be able to adapt.

Indian markets are also correcting and shedding excesses of the past. At the same time, there is an improving risk–reward payoff potential in the high-growth and high-quality segment of the market. We need to look through short-term volatility and focus on areas of self-sustaining growth.

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