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Nifty :24765

Indian Equity benchmark staged a significant recovery and snapped it fourdays of losing streak. Nifty settled the day at 24765, up 285 points. Broader market turned positive with an A/D ratio of 2:1, wherein Mid and Smallcap has relatively outperformed gained 1.5% each. Sectorally, barring IT, all major indices ended in green led by Metals, Realty and Auto. Meanwhile, India Vix (which gauge the market sentiment) declined 21% to 17, indicating ease in volatility

Technical Outlook:

* The index opened the day on a positive note and witnessed follow through strength above its prior session upmove. As a result, daily price action formed a bullish candle carrying higher high-low structure, indicating buying demand from lower levels instead of elevated volatility.

* Index likely to open gap down on back of negative global cues. In line with our expectation index has rebounded from its 20-month EMA key support (24,300), coinciding with the previous swing low made in August 2025. Going ahead, we expect index to resolve higher and fill Monday’s Gap area (25178-24989) in coming session. A decisive close above 25200 mark would pave the way for the next leg of up-move; failing which, the index is likely to continue consolidating in the range of 24300-25200.

* In this process bouts of volatility to remain preeminent as markets closely track developments on the geopolitical front. Hence, we advise dips should be capitalised to build quality portfolios from medium to long term perspective as strong support is placed at 23,900, being rising trendline support which has been held since June 2022, signifies strong structural support.

* In the last four decades there have been six major geopolitical escalations. On each occasion it formed major bottom once anxiety around the event settled down. Investing in such panic reactions with long term mind set has been rewarding as index has double digit returns in subsequent three months. In the current scenario, post the kneejerk reaction, we believe market would stabilise.

* On the larger degree time frame, index has been respecting 20 months EMA which has been held post Covid-lows. The current reading is placed around 24300 that corroborates with August swing low of 24338, highlighting strong support going ahead.

* In tandem with the benchmark move, Nifty midcap, smallcap indices once again rebounded from their key support zone. We expect, index to resume with its recovery and sustain firmly above its previous swing low, while sailing through global volatility and set the stage for next leg of up move head.

Key Monitorable:

* Brent crude would be the key monitorable going forward amidst renewed geopolitical tension, that pulled it around falling resistance trendline placed at $83 range. A decisive close above $83 on weekly closing basis would fuel the momentum for next leg of up move that can add pressure on emerging markets like India

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 20-month EMA

* Levels- Buy around 80% retracement of last 2 days upmove (24,427- 24970)

Nifty Bank :59056

Technical Outlook:

* Index began the day with positive opening and witnessed supportive efforts emerging from 80% retracement of previous day around 58500 levels. Consequently, daily price action formed a high wave candle, carrying higher high-low pattern, indicating pause in downward momentum.

* Going ahead sustaining above the key support threshold of 58,500 amid ongoing geopolitical tension would keep the possibility of a pullback options open towards 60,000 mark, being 50% retracement of recent decline (61678- 58394).Failure to do so will lead to extended correction wherein key support is placed at 57,800 being its former resistance would be turned as a support as per change of polarity principal.

* We believe, volatility is likely to remain elevated on the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, any corrective declines from current levels should be viewed as buying opportunities as strong demand zone is identified near 57,800-57400 being 50% retracement of the rally recorded from Aug 2025 to Feb 2026 (53,606-61,674) and 200-day EMA

* The PSU Bank index formed inside bar candle, indicating pause in downward momentum after recent decline. Going ahead we expect pullback to continue till 9650 levels being 61.8% retracement of recent decline (9904-9227).

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- After recent decline shallow retracement indicates continuation of near-term corrective bias

* Levels- Sell around 61.8% retracement of last 3 days range (60,622-58,826)

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