Mustard Report As On 23rd June 2026 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
* Mustard prices corrected over 2.7% from June highs amid profit booking and soybean weakness.
* Government increased mustard MSP by ?250 to ?6,200 per quintal for 2026-27 season.
* Mustard arrivals during Apr–Jun 2026 declined 14% year-on-year to 12.33 lakh tonnes.
* Geopolitical tensions in West Asia supported rival edible oils, improving mustard price sentiment.
* Haryana began mustard procurement operations targeting 1.3 million tonnes during 2026-27 Rabi season.
* Crude mustard oil exports increased around 4% during Apr–Mar 2026 compared to last year.
* India’s oilmeal exports to China have surged nearly 900% over the past decade.
* USDA projects India’s mustard ending stocks at only 5.65 lakh tonnes for 2025-26.
* India’s stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline 7.57%, tightening mustard market fundamentals.
* Domestic mustard consumption is forecast to rise 3.76%, supporting demand during 2026-27 season.
* Limited government procurement reduces risk of large state-held stock releases in future.
* Canada’s 2026-27 carryout stocks are projected to decline sharply by nearly 40%.
* Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest is estimated 9% lower year-on-year, tightening global oilseed supplies.
* India’s mustard production is estimated at 137.68 lakh tonnes, up 8.6% annually.
* Global mustard production is projected to increase 1.44% to 96.89 million tonnes.
* Australia’s canola production remains historically strong at 7.68 million tonnes in 2025-26.
* European Union rapeseed production is expected to rise to 20.97 million tonnes.
* Bearish harmonic pattern and near-overbought RSI levels indicate potential technical price pressure
Oilmeal Exports
The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has provisionally reported oilmeal exports at 274,887 tonnes for March 2026, compared to 409,148 tonnes in March 2025, marking a decline of 33%.
India’s oilmeal exports continue to face significant market and logistical challenges, adversely affecting export realizations and profitability. Key issues include severe disruptions in Red Sea shipping routes, which have sharply increased freight costs and intense price competition from South American and European suppliers. As a result, India’s total oilmeal exports during April 2025 to March 2026 (2025-26), declined to 3,768,710 tonnes from 4,342,498 tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year, reflecting a drop of 13%. In value terms, exports fell to Rs. 9,340 crore from Rs. 12,171 crore during the same period
Key Points
China Emerged as a Mega Buyer: India's oilmeal exports to China skyrocketed, hitting 8.78 lakh tonnes during the April 2025–March 2026. This was largely driven by India's price competitiveness for rapeseed meal and China's restriction on Canadian canola. A major driver of Indian exports was China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed/canola meal.
Sluggish Soybean Meal: Indian soybean meal exports remain uncompetitive globally due to price disparities with major producers like Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, domestic livestock feed makers have increasingly shifted toward cheaper alternatives like DDGS (by-product of ethanol) at the cost of soymeal and other oilmeals.
Red Sea & Strait of Hormuz Crises: Geopolitical conflicts have forced shipping companies to bypass the Red Sea. Detouring around the Cape of Good Hope has added 10-15 days to shipping journeys, creating container shortages and inflating freight costs. Approximately 20% of India's oilmeal exports (destined for West Asia) and 15% (destined for Europe) are highly vulnerable to these logistical delays and costs.
Reduced Crush Availability: The temporary reduction and domestic high price of soybean, crushing activity dropped lead to lesser availability for shipping volumes.
Highlights
* Total oilmeal exports declined by 13% compared to the previous year.
* Rapeseed meal was the highest exported oilmeal with 1,754,916 metric tonnes.
* Soybean meal exports dropped sharply from 2.12 million to 1.55 million tonnes.
* Rice bran extraction exports surged dramatically, growing by more than tenfold.
* Total export value decreased from 12,171 crore to 9,340 crore rupees.
* September 2025 achieved the maximum monthly growth of forty percent.
* January 2026 registered the largest monthly export decline of 42%.
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