MCX Silver July is expected to dip towards Rs 222,000 - Rs 219,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 232,000 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to remain under pressure amid strong dollar and expectation of rise in US treasury yields. Further, prices may slip on anticipation that US Federal Reserve may maintain hawkish stance and hike interest rate by the end of the year. Last week policy meeting was largely seen as hawkish by investors prompting greater shift towards monetary policy despite of declining crude oil prices cooled inflation concerns. According to CME FedWatch tool markets are now pricing 85% chance of a rate hike in December, up from 61% before the Federal Reserve's meeting last week. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of slew of economic data from US. If data comes on stronger note then it would signal resilience in the economy, adding to rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, sharp downside may be cushioned on early signs of progress in ongoing peace talks between the US and Iran. MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip further towards Rs 145,000 - Rs 144,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 149,000 level
• MCX Silver July is expected to dip towards Rs 222,000 - Rs 219,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 232,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid strong dollar and risk aversion in the global markets. Further, mixed batch of economic data from major economies would weigh on prices. Furthermore, prices may slip on concerns that tighter monetary policy in major economies may push borrowing cost higher clouding outlook for global economic growth and industrial metal demands. Meanwhile, sharp fall in prices may be cushioned on ongoing concerns about US import tariffs and persistent decline in inventory at LME registered warehouses.
• MCX Copper July is expected to slip towards Rs 1285 level as long as it stays below Rs 1318 level. A break below Rs 1285 level prices may be pushed towards Rs 1280 - Rs 1274 level
• MCX Aluminum July is expected to slip towards Rs 335 - Rs 332 level as long as its stays below Rs 349 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 365 level and slip towards Rs 355 - Rs 352 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias amid ease in supply concerns as US and Iran negotiations made headway. Further, prices may dip on signs of gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and more oil tankers stranded are set to move out. Furthermore, prices may slip as US issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell oil on the international market, adding more oil in market. Iran may ramp up its oil exports amid removal of US blockade of Iranian port as a part of ceasefire extension agreement. Additionally, signs of improving US-Iran relations will ease fear of prolonged disruption in Middle East supplies. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on how quickly Middle Eastern producers can resume oil production and exports following damage from the war, and whether more ships will enter the region. Traders are also awaiting official inventory figures from EIA. MCX Crude oil July is likely to slip towards Rs 6700 - Rs 6500 level as long as it stays below Rs 7300
• MCX Natural gas July is expected to weaken towards Rs 295 - Rs 290 level as long as it stays below Rs 314 level.
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