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Gold

Gold prices declined 1.07% to settle at Rs.146,529, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar that climbed to a one-year high amid growing expectations of tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Market sentiment turned bearish after nearly half of Fed officials projected at least one rate hike this year, while CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September rate increase rising sharply to around 69% from 29% a week earlier. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for further policy direction. Despite the recent correction, major financial institutions remain structurally positive on gold. Deutsche Bank expects gold to reach $4,800 per ounce in Q4 under a prolonged Fed pause scenario, while Goldman Sachs revised its year-end forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $5,400, citing near-term downside risks but maintaining a constructive medium-term outlook. Physical demand remained weak across key consuming regions. India's gold imports have plunged nearly 70% since import duties were increased to 15%, while Swiss gold exports to India dropped to a six-year low of 955 kg in May. Domestic jewellery, bar, and coin demand also remained subdued. India's physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly outflow in a year during May, reflecting profit booking after the recent price rally. Globally, gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $2 billion in May, although year-to-date inflows remain close to $17 billion. Meanwhile, gold held in London vaults increased marginally to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 0.55% to 9,337 contracts while prices declined. Gold finds immediate support at Rs.145,660, with a break below likely to test Rs.144,795. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.147,240, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.147,955.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 144795-147955.

*  Gold prices dropped as the U.S. dollar strengthened to a one-year high on market expectations of a stricter U.S. Federal Reserve.

*  Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research have updated their forecasts to include a rate increase in September.

*  Gold imports into India, have fallen nearly 70% since the government raised import duties to 15% from 6% last month.

Silver

Silver prices witnessed sharp selling pressure and settled 3.62% lower at Rs.225,834, weighed down by rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and increasing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may resume policy tightening later this year. Sentiment weakened after both Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research revised their outlooks to include a September rate hike. Improving U.S. labour market indicators also supported the hawkish view, with the NER Pulse report showing private-sector hiring averaging 30.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending June 6, up from 26.5K previously. Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, for further clues on the interest rate trajectory. Additional pressure on silver came from easing geopolitical concerns after the United States granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil internationally, raising expectations of increased global crude supplies. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz improved, while Iran exported more than 30 million barrels of oil during the past week, reducing safe-haven demand across precious metals. On the physical market front, India’s silver imports plunged sharply following stricter import regulations and higher duties. May imports fell 87% in value terms to $75.57 million and declined 94% in volume terms to just 33 metric tons, the lowest level since February 2023. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes at the end of May, equivalent to approximately 920,378 silver bars. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.19% to 9,377 contracts alongside the sharp price fall. Immediate support is placed at Rs.224,450, with further downside towards Rs.223,065. Resistance is seen at Rs.228,010, and a breakout above this level may open the door for a move towards Rs.230,185.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 223065-230185.

* Silver fell amid higher US Treasury yields on rising bets on Fed rate hikes and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal.

* US private employers added an average of 30.75K jobs per week in early June.

* Traders see 69% chance of rate hike in Sept - CME FedWatch

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged lower by 0.27% to settle at ?6,964 as markets continued to assess developments surrounding the Iran-U.S. negotiations and the gradual normalization of crude supplies from the Persian Gulf region. Sentiment remained under pressure after the United States granted a 60-day waiver allowing global buyers, including U.S. refiners, to purchase Iranian crude and petroleum products. Progress in diplomatic talks held in Switzerland also reduced immediate supply disruption concerns, although differences remain on key issues related to nuclear inspections and sanctions. Supply conditions have improved noticeably, with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates utilizing alternative export routes and Iran shipping more than 30 million barrels during the past week. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also recovered, indicating easing concerns regarding the critical shipping route. Iraq further contributed to rising supplies, with southern crude production increasing by approximately 500,000 barrels per day to 1.5 million bpd as export infrastructure operations normalized. Despite the bearish impact of improving supply prospects, underlying fundamentals received support from a substantial decline in U.S. inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 8.262 million barrels to 418.2 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations of a 4.6 million-barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also declined sharply, while gasoline inventories fell and refinery utilization rates improved. Total U.S. crude inventories dropped to their lowest level since March 1985, highlighting continued strength in consumption and refinery demand. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 3.75% to 12,738 contracts while prices moved lower, indicating the emergence of new short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs.6,894, with a further decline potentially testing Rs.6,825. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.7,041, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs.7,119.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6825-7119.

* Crude oil dropped as traders monitored advancements toward resolving the conflict with Iran.

* Two crude tankers with just under 2 million barrels of oil sailed ‌through the Strait of Hormuz.

* US crude stocks fall to its lowest since March 1985, EIA says

Natural gas 

Natural gas prices declined sharply by 3.55% to settle at Rs.299, pressured by ample storage levels and forecasts indicating weaker demand over the next two weeks than previously anticipated. Market sentiment remained bearish despite expectations for warmer-than-normal weather through early July, as abundant inventories continued to outweigh supportive seasonal demand factors. Mild weather conditions during the spring enabled energy companies to inject larger-than-normal volumes into storage, keeping inventories comfortably above historical averages. According to LSEG, average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased slightly to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June from 109.7 bcfd in May, although production remains near record levels. Demand forecasts were revised lower, with total gas consumption, including exports, expected to average 101.8 bcfd this week and 105.7 bcfd next week. However, warmer temperatures are expected to support cooling demand and increase gas consumption by power generators in the coming weeks. On the supply side, LNG exports remained strong, with average flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export facilities rising to 17.2 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May as maintenance-related outages eased. Recent storage data showed an injection of 73 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 12, slightly below market expectations but sufficient to lift inventories to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, approximately 5.8% above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects both natural gas production and demand to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027, supported by growing LNG exports and power sector consumption. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 25.09% to 10,147 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at Rs.294.7, with further weakness potentially extending toward Rs.290.3. Resistance is placed at Rs.306.9, and a move above this level could trigger recovery towards Rs.314.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 290.3-314.7.

* Natural gas eased on ample amounts of gas in storage and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks.

* LSEG cut its two-week Lower 48 demand forecasts from Monday's outlook

* Inventories expected stayed 5.8% above the five-year average in the week ended June 19

Copper 

Copper prices declined sharply by 2.55% to settle at Rs.1,281.8, pressured by concerns that a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve could slow global economic growth and industrial demand. Market sentiment weakened following the conclusion of U.S.-Iran talks, while growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year further weighed on base metals. Several major financial institutions have revised their outlooks to incorporate tighter monetary policy amid persistent inflationary pressures. Despite the price decline, fundamental indicators remain mixed. China's refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year in May to 1.26 million metric tons, reflecting continued strong domestic supply. At the same time, China’s unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons, supported by robust investment in power infrastructure. Power grid spending in China surged 37% during the first quarter of 2026, highlighting continued strength in one of the key copper-consuming sectors. Inventory trends also remain supportive. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 23.6% last week, while inventories in LME warehouses fell further to 352,150 tons, with a significant portion earmarked for withdrawal. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a 30,000-ton global refined copper surplus in March and now forecasts a market surplus of 96,000 tons in 2026 and 377,000 tons in 2027 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Long-term market expectations remain constructive. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $13,735 per ton, while Citi increased its near-term target to $14,500 per ton, citing tighter mine supply growth and persistent global deficits outside the United States. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 24.69% to 7,783 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs.1,268.2, with further downside towards Rs.1,254.6. Resistance is placed at Rs.1,302.2, and a move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.1,322.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1254.6-1322.6.

* Copper fell on worries of potential growth headwinds from a Federal Reserve interest rate hikes

* China May refined copper output rises 2.2% y/y

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 23.6% last week.

Zinc 

Zinc prices declined 2.08% to settle at Rs.362.35, pressured by broad-based risk reduction across commodity and equity markets amid growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could adopt a more aggressive stance to contain inflation. Improved sentiment surrounding the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations also reduced concerns over global economic disruptions, contributing to weakness in safe-haven and industrial commodities. However, losses were partially limited by tightening supply conditions in the global zinc market. Fundamentally, China’s zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting strong domestic output and improving availability of refined metal. At the same time, Chinese authorities reiterated their commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy framework and enhancing support for domestic demand and technological innovation, which could provide longer-term support to industrial metals consumption. On the supply side, several disruptions continue to support the zinc market. Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan remains affected by reduced operating rates following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru has been recovering from fire-related disruptions. Concerns also persist regarding production levels at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine after a seismic event earlier this year. These supply challenges come at a time when the International Lead and Zinc Study Group expects a refined zinc deficit of 19,000 tons for the current year. Market balance indicators remain mixed. The global zinc surplus narrowed significantly to 26,500 tons in April from 56,300 tons in March, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined by 1.2% over the past week. Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus in 2026, although slowing mine supply growth could shift markets outside China into deficit during 2027 and 2028. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 24.26% to 1,286 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is placed at Rs.359.4, with further downside towards Rs.356.3. Resistance is seen at Rs.367.7, and a move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.372.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 356.3-372.9.

* Zinc dropped as market sentiment improved following progress in US–Iran talks.

* Pressure also seen due to expectations that the Federal Reserve would take more aggressive action to tackle inflation.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 2.57% to settle at Rs.345.25 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions. Market sentiment weakened after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace negotiations, improving expectations for a gradual normalization of trade and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. As tanker traffic carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas resumed, expectations also increased that aluminium shipments from Gulf producers would recover, easing fears of near-term supply shortages. The improving supply outlook was reflected in the London Metal Exchange market, where the premium for cash aluminium over three-month futures shifted into a discount of $8.5 per ton from a premium of $105 per ton recorded three weeks earlier. This sharp reversal indicates reduced urgency among consumers to secure immediate metal supplies. The Gulf region normally accounts for around 9% of global aluminium production, making the restoration of logistics a significant development for market participants. Fundamental data presented a mixed picture. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes. However, China continued to demonstrate strong production growth, with aluminium output rising 1.7% year-on-year to 3.89 million metric tons in May, marking the ninth consecutive month of expansion. Production during the first five months of 2026 increased 3.5% to 19.22 million metric tons. Trade data also remained supportive, with China’s unwrought aluminium imports rising 6.9% year-on-year in March, while exports of unwrought aluminium and related products increased 5.7% in May and more than 10% during the first five months of the year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 14.88% to 1,544 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs.340.9, with further downside towards Rs.336.5. Resistance is placed at Rs.351.3, and a move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.357.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 336.5-357.3.

* Aluminium fell as US granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, improving supply prospects.

* With easing worries about the availability, the premium for LME cash over 3M forwards swung to a discount at $8.5 a ton.

* Global aluminium output falls 1.7% year on year in May – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 0.64% to settle at Rs.16,668 as increased selling pressure from farmers and higher arrivals in major producing markets weighed on sentiment. During the peak harvest season, many farmers have accelerated stock liquidation, leading to a rise in daily arrivals that has outpaced immediate demand. Significant inventory levels, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal as of May-end, have also encouraged buyers to remain cautious and limit aggressive purchases. In addition, quality concerns, including reports of rhizome rot and deterioration in some arrivals, prompted sellers to accept lower prices, further contributing to the decline. Demand conditions remained mixed. While cumulative export performance continues to be supportive, fresh export inquiries from key markets such as Europe and the United States slowed during the week. However, demand from neighboring countries remained encouraging, with active procurement from Bangladesh supporting prices of finger-variety turmeric in Andhra Pradesh markets. Furthermore, growing demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers continues to provide support for premium-quality stocks. On the supply side, expectations of improved production prospects also pressured prices. The advancement of the Southwest Monsoon across southern India and forecasts for above-normal rainfall have strengthened expectations for healthy acreage during the 2026-27 season. Early reports indicate an increase in turmeric cultivation across major producing states following the recent period of elevated prices. Despite this, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than the previous season’s level of over 20 lakh bags, indicating that overall supply buffers remain relatively tight. Export data showed India’s turmeric shipments increased marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong demand from China, Bangladesh, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan helped offset weaker exports to the UAE and the United States. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 0.92% to 25,145 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at Rs.16,572, with further downside towards Rs.16,478. Resistance is placed at Rs.16,798, and a move above this level could push prices towards Rs.16,930.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16478-16930.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16143.85 Rupees dropped by -0.69 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.96% to settle at Rs.20,740 as traders booked profits after the recent rally driven by tightening supplies of premium-quality cumin seeds. Despite the correction, the overall market sentiment remains supported by shrinking availability of export-grade bold seeds. Arrivals in key trading centers such as Unjha in Gujarat and major Rajasthan mandis have started to decline as the peak post-harvest supply season comes to an end. This has enhanced the bargaining power of stockists and warehouse operators, helping maintain firmness in the physical market. Supply quality has emerged as a major concern this season. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms across major producing regions affected storage conditions and damaged seed quality, increasing moisture levels and reducing color retention. As a result, a significant price gap has developed between average-grade and premium export-quality cumin. In addition, reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have further impacted both production quality and harvestable volumes. Market participants are also closely monitoring farmer selling patterns. Many growers and stockists are holding back quality stocks and releasing supplies gradually, creating temporary tightness in spot availability. Demand from domestic processors remains steady, although buying activity is largely limited to immediate requirements rather than aggressive stock-building. Export demand continues to provide support, particularly for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Buyers from Europe and North America have re-entered the market, while expectations of increased Chinese purchases remain positive for future demand. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to around 90-92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced acreage and weather-related challenges. India’s jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE. However, strong growth in exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the decline. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 0.71% to 9,252 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs.20,540, with further downside towards Rs.20,330. Resistance is placed at Rs.21,020, and a move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.21,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20330-21290.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20831 Rupees dropped by -0.28 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views