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Gold

Gold yesterday settled 1.11% higher at 1,25,225, supported by rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December after dovish statements from multiple Fed officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for an imminent rate cut due to persistent labor market softness, echoing comments from Mary Daly and John Williams. Market odds for a 25 bps cut in December have surged to 81%, up from about 40% a week earlier. Traders now await US weekly jobless claims for further cues on economic momentum and monetary policy direction. On the physical front, China’s gold imports via Hong Kong fell sharply, dropping 64% in October, while imports via Hong Kong totaled 30.08 tons, down 17% on the month. Swiss gold exports to China also plunged 93% as record-high prices curbed demand. China’s VAT adjustment for gold purchases from November 1 is expected to raise costs for jewellery and industrial buyers, although the PBOC continued its buying streak for the 12th consecutive month, lifting reserves to 74.09 million ounces. Asian physical demand remained subdued due to price volatility. Indian dealers offered discounts of $21/oz, though narrower than last week’s $43. Chinese and Hong Kong markets saw trades at par to small discounts or premiums, while Singapore and Japan recorded modest premiums. Gold is under short covering, with open interest down 11.15% to 8,024. Support lies at 124,620, with further downside toward 124,010. Resistance is at 125,680, and a breakout could take prices to 126,130.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 124010-126130.

* Gold gains as expectations for a US interest rate cut next month have increased further following dovish signals from Fed officials.

* Fed’s Waller expressed support for a December rate cut, citing persistent weakness in the US labor market.

* China's October net gold imports via Hong Kong fall about 64% from September

Silver

Silver yesterday settled 1.19% higher at 1,56,321, supported by dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials that strengthened expectations of an imminent US rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted persistent labour market weakness, noting that inflation is “not a big problem,” and suggested that payrolls may be revised lower, signalling support for an early rate cut. His remarks reinforced comments by New York Fed President John Williams, who also hinted at the possibility of near-term easing. These statements shifted market expectations firmly toward earlier policy relaxation. On the supply side, 7.6 million ounces of silver left COMEX warehouses last week, pushing inventories down to 462 million ounces, the lowest since March. Meanwhile, LBMA inventories climbed to 844 million ounces in October – the highest in a year – as arbitrage opportunities encouraged metal to move back to London. London vault silver holdings rose 6.8% in October to 26,255 tons, easing a liquidity squeeze triggered by heavy outflows earlier in the month. Year-to-date silver-backed ETP holdings are up 18%, reflecting investor concerns over stagflation, debt sustainability and geopolitical risks. However, global silver demand in 2025 is expected to fall 4% YoY to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand forecast to decline 2%, and PV-related demand down 5% due to reduced silver loadings. The market is in short covering mode, with open interest down 23.68% to 8,359 while prices gained 1,839 rupees. Support is at 155,050, with further downside toward 153,770. Resistance is at 157,525, and a breakout could push prices to 158,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 153770-158720.

* Silver rose as dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials strengthened expectations for a near-term interest rate cut.

* Markets now price in an 81% chance of a 25 basis point cut next month, up sharply from 42.4% a week ago.

* Another 7.6 moz of silver left COMEX warehouses last week, reducing total inventories to 462 moz, the lowest level since March.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled 1.32% lower at 5,166, pressured by oversupply concerns that outweighed geopolitical worries surrounding Russian shipments. Although sanctions-related disruptions remain a risk as Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks show no progress, the broader outlook for 2026 continues to point toward a looser market. Multiple institutions, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, project that global supply growth will outpace demand through next year. Deutsche Bank expects a surplus of at least 2 million bpd in 2026, while Goldman Sachs highlights a supply wave likely to keep the market in surplus, though Brent could exceed $70 if Russian output declines more sharply. OPEC+ maintained its plan to raise December output targets by 137,000 bpd, while pausing any further increases in Q1 2026. In the US, the Energy Information Administration reported mixed inventory trends. Crude stocks earlier rose by 6.4 million barrels to 427.6 million, but the recent week showed a larger-than-expected 3.426 million-barrel draw, with Cushing stocks also falling. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.327 million barrels while distillates showed a marginal build. US crude output is set to average a record 13.59 million bpd this year before a slight dip next year, supported by stronger-than-expected August production. The market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.33% to 17,081 while prices fell 69 rupees. Support lies at 5,097, with further downside toward 5,027. Resistance is at 5,248, and a breakout may push prices to 5,329.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5027-5329.

* Crude oil eased as oversupply concerns outweighed worries that Russian shipments will remain under sanctions.

* Russia’s Novak said Moscow and Beijing have been discussing ways to expand Russian oil exports to China.

* Deutsche Bank sees a 2026 crude oil surplus of at least 2 million barrels per day.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas yesterday settled down by 4.15% at 399.9, pressured by near-record production and comfortable storage levels that kept overall supply ample. Output from the Lower 48 states averaged 109.1 bcfd so far in November, higher than October’s 107.3 bcfd and above the previous monthly record of 108.3 bcfd set in August. This strong supply has pushed inventories to about 4% above the seasonal norm, giving the market a solid buffer. Despite the surplus, the season’s first storage withdrawal was reported as colder weather briefly boosted heating demand. The EIA confirmed a 14 bcf draw for the week ended November 14, in line with expectations and contrasting with last year’s 3 bcf injection and the five-year average build of 12 bcf. LNG exports are also strengthening, with flows to major U.S. terminals averaging 18 bcfd in November, up from the record 16.6 bcfd in October. The EIA’s STEO further projects both output and demand to hit new records in 2025–26, with production seen rising to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, while consumption is set to climb to 91.6 bcfd in both years. Fresh selling is visible as open interest surged 62.42% to 22,912 while prices slipped by ?17.3. Support is placed at 389.2, with a break opening the path to 378.5. Resistance stands at 414.2, above which prices may test 428.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 378.5-428.5.

* Natural gas slipped as near-record production and strong storage levels kept the market well supplied.

* Output in the Lower 48 has averaged 109.1 bcfd so far in November, up from 107.3 bcfd in October.

* Forecasts indicate mild conditions through November 26, followed by colder-than-normal temperatures from November 28 to December 5, which could lift demand.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled 0.38% higher at 1010.8, supported by continued outflows from LME inventories into U.S. Comex stocks, even as concerns over weaker Chinese demand limited the upside. LME copper stocks have already declined 42% this year, while Comex inventories continue to rise, pushing the LME cash–three-month premium to $25/ton, its highest since mid-October, before easing to $10. However, the Yangshan premium—a key gauge of Chinese buying appetite—fell 6% to $32, reflecting subdued import demand. China’s copper fundamentals remained soft, with cathode imports down 22.1% YoY and 15.7% MoM in October. Refined output for the month slipped 4.9% MoM, though it still posted an 8.9% YoY increase. Global supply concerns remain in focus as disruptions persist, including Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg mine, where production is expected to resume only by July 2026. Meanwhile, the ICSG reported a 51,000-ton global refined copper deficit in September, reversing the 41,000-ton surplus in August, though the market still holds a modest surplus for the year so far. On the price outlook, Cochilco raised its 2025–26 copper forecasts to record highs, while Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2025 target to $10,610/ton and sees a long-term rise toward $15,000/ton by 2035 due to tightening resources and accelerating demand. Fresh buying emerged as open interest rose 6.77% to 8,344, with prices gaining ?3.8. Support is placed at 1007.8, below which 1004.8 may be tested. Resistance lies at 1016, and a break above could open the door to 1021.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1004.8-1021.2.

* Copper prices gained supported by ongoing outflows to U.S. inventories.

* Copper stocks in the LME are down 42% so far this year amid outflows to the Comex copper stocks.

* This activity saw the premium for the LME cash copper contract over the three-month forward rising to $25 a ton, its highest since mid-October.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled slightly higher by 0.03% at 297.35, supported by a narrowing global surplus even as rising LME inventories capped gains. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed the global zinc market surplus fell to 20,300 tons in September, down from 32,700 tons in August. For the first nine months of 2025, the refined zinc surplus stood at 120,000 tons, higher than the 107,000-ton surplus recorded in the same period last year, signaling a still-loose but gradually tightening balance. However, upside remained restricted as LME-registered zinc stocks rose sharply to 47,425 tons, marking a 40% gain since early November, easing immediate supply concerns. Despite this rise, the cash–three-month premium around $135/ton indicates continued tightness in the prompt market. China’s production dynamics also influenced sentiment. October zinc output surged to a record 665,000 tons, even as domestic demand softened due to persistent property sector weakness. Exports jumped to 8,519 tons in October, up 243.8% MoM, as smelters redirected metal overseas amid LME market tightness. Earlier, September refined zinc production fell 4% MoM but rose over 20% YoY, with cumulative output up nearly 9% YoY in the January–September period. Production is expected to increase again in October due to resumed operations and incremental supply from major smelting regions. Fresh buying interest is evident as open interest rose 3.64% to 2,480 while prices edged up by ?0.1. Support is placed at 295.7, below which 294 may be tested. Resistance is at 299.1, and a break above could take prices toward 300.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 294-300.8.

* Zinc gained as global zinc market surplus declined to 20,300 metric tons in September from 32,700 tons in August.

* However, upside seen limited as rising zinc stocks in LME at 47,425 tons for a gain of 40% since the start of November.

* Global refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million mt in 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled marginally lower by 0.07% at 268.15, pressured by lingering concerns over demand prospects in top consumer China. Softness in manufacturing activity and efforts to curb overcapacity weighed on sentiment. However, the downside remained limited as expectations of a December U.S. rate cut grew following dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, improving the broader risk appetite. Supply-related factors also provided support. Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity limits, limiting output growth. Global production trends were mixed: the International Aluminium Institute reported October primary aluminium output at 6.294 million tons, up 0.6% YoY. Aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports dropped 3.6% in October to 329,100 tons, while SHFE-monitored stocks rose 7.67%, reflecting a divergence in regional supply-demand balances. Additional supply disruptions also tightened the outlook: Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline due to equipment failure, Century Aluminium curtailed two-thirds of its Iceland output, and Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia. In the demand landscape, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminium and products in October, up 10.4% YoY, following strong September imports, signaling healthy demand from construction, transport, and packaging sectors. The market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 11.08% to 2,978 as prices edged lower by ?0.2. Support lies at 266.8, below which 265.3 may be tested. Resistance is at 270.1, and a break above could lift prices toward 271.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 265.3-271.9.

* Aluminium dropped as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.

* However downside seen limited supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled 0.35% higher at 14,194, supported by concerns over crop damage in key growing regions of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka due to recent rains. Erode is witnessing a surge in arrivals from these states, while continuous rainfall has triggered disease outbreaks in some areas, increasing preservation challenges amid high humidity. In Nanded, heavy rainfall has damaged nearly 15% of turmeric acreage, adding to supply-side worries. However, upside remains capped as overall acreage has increased this season, with favourable early rains boosting sowing activity. Turmeric area for 2024–25 stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than the previous season. Stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with almost no fresh arrivals for the past two days, lending additional price support. Market participants are monitoring weather conditions closely as low inflows and cautious selling continue to fuel firmness. At Duggirala, fresh crop arrivals are enjoying strong demand, with superior-quality new produce fetching premiums of 1,000–1,200 bags traded daily. Nearly 50–55% of the new crop has been sold, and with harvesting ongoing, steady arrivals are expected to keep market activity strong through June. Turmeric exports during Apr–Sep 2025 increased by 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes, reflecting improving overseas demand. However, September exports dipped 3.58% MoM, though they remained 7.59% higher YoY at 16,523.10 tonnes. The market is under short covering, with open interest down 2.99% to 10,050 as prices rose by 50 rupees. Support is placed at 13,986, with further weakness toward 13,778. Resistance is seen at 14,338, and a breakout could lift prices to 14,482.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13778-14482.

* Turmeric gained as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Also, due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14657.9 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled 1.79% lower at 21,355, weighed down by comfortable supplies and weak export interest as existing stocks remain sufficient to meet current commitments. Farmers continue to face difficulties in initiating sowing due to uneven rainfall, particularly in Gujarat, where the season is running significantly behind schedule. Despite the price decline, sentiment remains partly supported because delayed sowing and weather-related uncertainties are keeping the broader supply outlook tight. Arrivals at the Unjha market remain minimal, and good-quality cumin continues to command higher prices. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown a slight improvement but remains highly price-sensitive, limiting any strong upside momentum. Logistical disruptions in India and the Middle East are keeping overall supply tight, but upside remains capped as the retail season has ended and foreign buyers remain largely inactive. Demand is subdued, and current export commitments are being managed from available stocks. Production for the current season is expected to be 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year's 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 declined 14.51% to 101,898.64 tonnes, though September shipments rose 2.20% YoY and 22.93% MoM. In Unjha, spot prices fell 0.27% to 21,015. The market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.3% to 3,180 and prices falling by 390 rupees. Support lies at 21,190, with further weakness toward 21,020. Resistance is at 21,640, and a breakout may take prices to 21,920.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21020-21920.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Farmers are struggling to start sowing due to uneven rainfall.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21015 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.

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