MCX Crude oil June is likely to face hurdle near Rs10100 level and move towards Rs 9600 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $4480 and move towards $4650 on growing hopes that the US and Iran may return to negotiations, easing inflation concerns. Any sign of progress in the peace negotiation with Iran would further cool down oil prices and support bullion prices. On the other hand, investors will eye on key US economic numbers to get more clarity on Fed interest rate path. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-bps rate cut this year stands at only 1%, whereas 25 bps rate hike has jumped to 45% due to persistent inflation concerns.
• MCX Gold June is expected to move in the range of Rs157,000-Rs161,500. Only a move above Rs161,500 it would rise towards Rs163,000.
• International Spot Silver is hovering around $77 per ounce mark; we expect prices to consolidate between $74 and $79.50 mark. MCX Silver July is expected to trade in a wide range of Rs270,000-Rs282,000. Only a move above Rs282,000 it would turn bullish.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to face hurdle and move in a tight range amid weak economic numbers from China. Recent retail sales and industrial production figures from China missed expectations. Domestic cooling combined with profit-booking could restrict its upside. Further, diminishing prospects of US rate cuts would weigh on prices. Meanwhile, any sign of progress in peace negotiation between US and Iran could bring a relief rally in the metal space. Additionally, Shanghai Yangshan copper premium stands at $71 per metric ton, indicates strong physical demand in China.
• MCX Copper May is expected to move in the band of Rs1335-Rs1360 level. Only a move below Rs1335 , it would slip towards Rs1325 level.
• MCX Aluminum May is expected to hold its ground near Rs375-Rs376 level and move towards Rs385-Rs386 level. MCX Zinc May is likely to dip towards Rs360 as long as it stays under Rs368-Rs370 level. Only a move below Rs 360 it would slip towards Rs 355.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil prices are likely to correct toward the $98–$100 per barrel range as geopolitical tensions ease following US President Donald Trump's announcement to postpone a scheduled military strike on Iran. This diplomatic pause allows the market to shed its heavy geopolitical risk premium. Furthermore, extension to the sanctions on Russian seaborne crude by an additional 30 days would ease immediate supply fears. Meanwhile, focus will remain on further progress on US-Iran peace negotiation, any positive sign could cool down oil prices.
• MCX Crude oil June is likely to face hurdle near Rs10100 level and move towards Rs 9600 level. Only a move below Rs9600, it would slip towards to Rs 9400.
• MCX Natural gas May is expected to face hurdle near Rs 298-Rs 300 level and move towards Rs 285-Rs 282 level.
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