Commodity Research - Daily Evening Track 14th January 2026 by Kotak Securities Ltd
Silver, Gold hits record high on dovish signals while Crude oil loses upside traction amid supply pressure
Spot silver surged beyond the $90/oz threshold, reaching a record $91.5, while gold climbed to $4,639.63/oz as softer U.S. inflation strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve easing. Headline CPI held at 2.6% y/y, and core CPI rose 0.2% m/m, undershooting forecasts, keeping June rate-cut pricing intact ahead of December core PPI. Geopolitical risk, resilient industrial and investment demand, and tightening inventories amplified safe-haven flows. Political pressure on the Fed intensified after Trump renewed calls for meaningful cuts, even as global central bankers and Wall Street leaders publicly backed Powell amid a federal probe. Concerns over confidence in U.S. assets and central bank autonomy supported precious metals. Markets price two 25-bp cuts in 2026.
WTI crude eased below $61.50 per barrel after four consecutive sessions of gains, as near-term supply pressures outweighed geopolitical risk premium. The API reported a sharp build in U.S. inventories, with crude stocks rising 5.23 million barrels, gasoline up 8.23 million barrels, and distillates increasing 4.34 million barrels, signaling softer demand dynamics in the world’s largest oil-consuming market. Adding to the supply narrative, Venezuela has begun reversing production cuts and resumed exports, with two supertankers carrying roughly 3.6 million barrels already departing under a tentative supply arrangement with Washington. While escalating civil unrest in Iran has raised concerns over potential disruptions from a major OPEC producer, markets remain cautious until risks translate into tangible supply losses.
Base metals continued to draw support from a powerful start to the year, with nickel leading gains, extending its rally on a surge in Chinese investor activity. Copper, while slightly lower on the day, remains near record territory as supply-side risks dominate sentiment. Fears of U.S. tariffs have pulled material into American warehouses, tightening supply elsewhere, while weather disruptions and labor issues in key producing regions continue to limit mine output. Meanwhile, demand from clean energy, electric vehicles, and data-center expansion remains robust. With expectations of easier monetary policy globally, the medium-term backdrop for base metals remains firmly supportive.
U.S. natural gas futures are holding firm above $3.40/MMBtu as colder-than-normal weather across the eastern two-thirds of the country, with sharper cold over the Rockies, Northwest, and Midwest, lifts heating demand. LNG feedgas flows have risen to about 20.3 bcf/day, up 12.1% week-on-week, improving export absorption. Weather-driven demand sensitivity remains high during peak winter usage. However, Lower-48 dry gas output near 113.3 bcf/day and subdued total demand at 95.1 bcf/day continue to cap upside, while softer Mexico exports add pressure. Overall, the fundamental outlook stays cautiously balanced.
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