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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to find support near $4,000 and move higher towards $4,130 amid expectations of a less hawkish stance from major central banks. Falling crude oil prices have eased inflation concerns, which may prompt central banks to alter their monetary policy outlook. Additionally, signs of cooling US labor data likely to weigh on Federal Reserve's ratehike expectations. Meanwhile, focus will remain on today’s Non-farm payroll number. Any sign of slowdown in job growth would hurt Fed’s stance and support the bullions to trade higher. Latest US economic numbers has lowered the probability of September rate hike to 64%.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs 145,000 - Rs 146,000 level as long as it holds above Rs 140,000 level

• Spot silver is hovering in the band of $56 to $61. A move above $61 would bring further upside in price towards $63. MCX Silver September is expected to rise towards Rs 233,000 - Rs 234,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 225,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to consolidate in a broader range as investors wait for further update on new tariffs on refined copper by US. Meanwhile, steady growth in Chinese manufacturing activity and depleting LME inventory levels would provide support to prices. Furthermore, easing inflation concerns following softer crude oil prices would force the major central banks to turn less hawkish in their stance, which could provide some help to the metal prices. While, focus will remain on key US jobs data which could bring further volatility.

• MCX Copper July is expected to move in the band of Rs 1255 and Rs 1278 level. Only move above Rs 1278 it would open the doors towards Rs 1285.

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to slip towards Rs 326 - Rs 327 level as long as its stays below Rs 335 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold support at Rs 358 level and rise towards Rs 364 - Rs 366 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude is expected to trade with negative bias on easing tension in the Middle east and improved oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The supply flows has increased in last 1-weeks, as more than 10 mb/d oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Further, strong exports from Iran and sharp recovery in UAE exports would likely to weigh on oil prices. At the same time, President Donald Trump and Qatari officials praised the recent momentum in negotiations and expressed readiness for the next round of talks, despite Tehran's persistent refusal to relinquish control of the strait.

• NYMEX crude oil is likely to face hurdle near $70 and move lower towards $65. MCX Crude oil July is likely to slip towards Rs 6300, as long as it trades under Rs 6700 level.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to slid towards Rs 300 - Rs 295 level as long as it stays below Rs 320 level.

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