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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot Gold is expected to slip back towards $3300 level on strong dollar and rise in U.S treasury yields. Further, demand for safe haven may decline on optimism over possible trade deal between U.S and its major trading partners. Most of the countries will try to use new three-week window to negotiate with U.S. Additionally, stronger than expected economic data from US signaled resilience in the economy, giving more room for US Fed to hold rates steady. As per CME Fedwatch tool, market expectations that the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting decline to a 63.9% probability, down from 65.8% a day ago. Moreover, hawkish comments from Fed officials may weigh on gold prices

• Spot gold is likely to face stiff resistance near $3350 level and slip back towards $3300 level. MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip towards Rs 96,200 level as long as it stays below Rs 97,300 level

• MCX Silver Sep is expected to rise towards Rs 110,000 level as long as it trades above Rs 108,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade with a negative bias on strong dollar and fragile global market sentiments. Further, investors fear that U.S President Donald Trump trade policies will hurt global economic growth and dent demand for industrial metal. Meanwhile, sharp fall may be cushioned as U.S President Donald Trump said 50% tariff on imported copper would be effective August 1 but refrained from giving any details. All eyes will be on details, as which copper products would be included and will it be implemented on all partners who supply copper to U.S. Additionally, market anticipates more stimulus package from Chinese government to revive struggling property sector

• MCX Copper July is expected to slip further towards Rs 878 level as long as it stays below Rs 892 level. A break below Rs 878 level prices may slide further towards Rs 874 level

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to correct towards Rs 248 level as long as it stays below Rs 251 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move north towards Rs 262 level as long as it stays above Rs 258 level.

Energy Outlook

• Crude oil is likely to slip further towards $65.50 amid strong dollar and weak global market sentiments. Further, prices may dip as investors are worried that latest tariff announcements by U.S President Doland Trump threaten global economic growth and oil demand. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to raise production by 548,000 bpd in August and are set for another big output boost in September. Moreover, investors are worried that despite of having trade deals with major trading partners, tariffs are still going to be significantly higher than they were before, fueling inflationary fears. Meanwhile, sharp fall may be cushioned on rising tension in Middle East. Additionally, U.S President Donald Trump is considering a bill that would impose tougher sanctions on Russia

• MCX Crude oil July is likely to slip back towards Rs 5550 level as long as it stays below Rs 5900 level.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to rise further towards Rs 295 level as long as it stays above Rs 280 level.

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