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Market Closing Commentary

Indian benchmark indices remained under pressure throughout the session. Despite multiple attempts to recover from the day's lows, buying momentum failed to sustain, keeping the indices in a narrow range with a negative bias. Volatility increased further during the final hour amid MSCI rebalancing-related activity, leading to sharper intraday swings. Elevated crude oil prices, with Brent trading above the $90 per barrel mark, along with persistent geopolitical concerns, continued to remain key overhangs for investor sentiment.

At close, the Nifty 50 declined 0.39% to settle at 24,080, while the Sensex fell 0.40% to close at 76,957.

On the sectoral front, Nifty Bank and Pharma emerged as the top-performing sectors, attracting selective buying interest and providing some support to the benchmark indices. On the downside, Nifty Media and Metal remained the key laggards, witnessing selling pressure during the session.

The broader market delivered a mixed performance. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index declined 0.74%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index gained 0.24%, indicating relatively stronger resilience in the midcap segment despite weakness in the benchmark and small cap indices.

Nifty Outlook

Index on the daily chart formed a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow indicating corrective consolidation and buying demand at lower levels around 24,000 levels.

Index on Monday’s session tested the 24,000 levels, going ahead a decisive break down below the 24,000 level will signal further correction towards the lower band of the range placed at 23,800 levels. On the higher only a move above 50 days EMA placed around 24,190 will open pullback towards 24,300-24,350 levels in the coming sessions.

Overall, we expect the index to extend the recent consolidation and trade in the broad range of 23,800-24,600 amid stock specific action. Within the consolidation last two-week highs placed around 24,380 will be the key hurdle for the index only a move above the same will signal positive movement. Failure to move above the same will keep the bias corrective.

Nifty has key support at 24,000-23,800 levels being the confluence of the previous major gap area and 61.8% retracement of previous up move from 23,606 to 24,774.

 

Bank Nifty Outlook

 Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle with a lower low and a higher high signaling buying demand from the 50 days EMA.

The broader 9 weeks consolidation range remains intact between 56,500 and 58,700. We expect the index to extend the current consolidation and only a breakout or breakdown will signal a directional momentum.

Within the consolidation index is facing resistance around 58,000 levels. Index sustaining above 58,000 levels will open upside towards 58,500-58.700 levels. Failure to move above 58,000 levels will signal consolidation in the range 57,000-58,000 levels in the coming sessions

In the smaller time frame Bank Nifty in the last 19 sessions is seen consolidating in a narrow range retracing just 50% of its previous 7 sessions up move from 56,023 to 58,248. A shallow retracement signals higher base formation.

Index has key short-term support at 56,500 levels being the confluence of the 52 weeks EMA and the lower band of the last 9 weeks range.

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