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The life insurance industry posted retail APE growth of ~13% YoY in May-26, with LIC outgrowing the private sector at 15.5% (on a favorable base), while the private sector reported ~12% YoY growth. On a 2Y CAGR basis, industry retail APE grew ~8%, led by ~10% growth in the private sector, whereas LIC grew at ~4%. The protection segment is likely to have sustained its momentum, driven by improving affordability. In contrast, the savings business—including both linked and non-linked products—likely witnessed some slowdown amid uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions. For YTDFY27, industry retail APE growth stood at 16.5% YoY, with LIC growing 17.1% and the private sector up 16.2%. Group APE for the industry declined 4% YoY in May-26, with ~19% decline for LIC partly offset by ~24% growth in the private sector. Overall, total industry APE grew 7.5% YoY in May-26, with the private sector growing 14.5%, while LIC declined ~2%. Among the listed private players, Axis Max Life continued to outperform the industry, delivering 15.7% retail APE growth in May-26. SBI Life, IPRU Life, and HDFC Life reported muted growth at 7.7%, 6.1%, and 6% YoY, respectively, while Canara HSBC Life reported ~10% growth in May-26. We expect the industry to log 11-12% retail APE growth in FY27E, backed by 13-14% growth in the private sector, while LIC’s retail APE is likely to grow 6-7%.

LIC outgrows the private sector, albeit on a favorable base

The life insurance industry reported ~13% retail APE growth in May-26, with the LIC outgrowing the private sector at ~15.5%, vs 12.3% YoY for the private sector. However, LIC’s healthy growth was aided by a favorable base (May-25: -6.6% YoY). On a 2Y CAGR basis, industry retail APE grew 7.8% YoY, with the private sector growing at 9.7%, while LIC recorded a muted 3.8% growth in May-26. The protection segment is expected to have maintained its momentum in May-26, while the savings business, including linked and nonlinked products, likely witnessed some softness amid the uncertainties related to geopolitical tensions. For YTDFY26, industry retail APE grew 16.5%, with LIC growing 17.1% and the private sector delivering ~16% growth. Consequently, LIC’s YTDFY27 RWRP market share increased by 20bps YoY to 31.9%. On a total APE basis, the industry reported 7.5% APE growth in May-26 (Private: 14.5% YoY; LIC: -2.1% YoY), impacted by ~4% decline in group APE.

Axis Max Life continues its growth momentum; other players see muted growth

Among private listed players, Axis Max Life continued to deliver strong performance, outgrowing industry retail APE growth at 15.7% in May-26. Other listed players witnessed relatively muted retail APE growth, with SBI Life at 7.7%, followed by HDFC Life and ICICI Pru Life each reporting ~6% retail APE growth. Canara HSBC Life delivered ~10% retail APE growth, while ICICI Pru Life’s reported retail APE declined 1.2% YoY. On a 2Y CAGR basis, Axis Max Life remained the fastest-growing player, delivering 20% retail APE growth, followed by HDFC Life (up 10%) and SBI Life (up 6%). On total APE basis, Axis Max Life delivered ~12% YoY growth in May-26, while SBI Life reported muted 1.2% growth, due to a decline in Group APE. ICICI Pru Life’s reported total APE grew ~7% in May-26, while HDFC Life’s total APE declined 0.8%. Canara HSBC Life clocked strong 25% APE growth in May26, driven by robust Group APE performance. Among other private players, Bajaj Life clocked strong 19% retail APE growth, while TATA AIA Life delivered a modest ~10% retail APE growth in May-26.

We expect industry retail APE growth of 11-12% in FY27E For FY27E,

we expect industry retail APE growth of ~11-12%, with private players outgrowing the industry at 13-14%, while LIC is expected to deliver 6-7% retail APE growth. Valuations across life insurance stocks appear attractive, offering a favorable risk-reward.

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