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Gold

Gold prices edged higher, settling up 0.21% at 134,409, as market participants assessed the delayed US jobs data and evolving Federal Reserve guidance. Sentiment remained broadly supportive after New York Fed President John Williams indicated that monetary policy is well positioned heading into 2026, with inflation expected to moderate further amid rising labour-market risks. Reinforcing the dovish tone, Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that underlying inflation pressures are lower than headline readings and warned that overly restrictive policy could trigger unnecessary job losses. He reiterated his preference for a faster pace of easing following the Fed’s cumulative 75 bps rate cuts this year. On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations, while October payrolls were revised sharply lower due to distortions from the government shutdown. Global fundamentals stayed constructive as central banks continued aggressive gold accumulation. The People’s Bank of China extended its buying streak to thirteen months, while global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October. Physically backed gold ETFs also recorded their sixth straight monthly inflow, with assets under management hitting a fresh peak. However, physical demand in India and China remained subdued due to record prices and volatility, leading to wider discounts. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.39% alongside a 279 price gain. Gold has immediate support at 133,365; a break below could test 132,320. On the upside, resistance is seen at 135,400, and a decisive move above this level may open the door toward 136,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 132320-136390.

* Gold edges higher as traders digest the delayed US jobs report.

* Fed’s Williams said that monetary policy is well-positioned as the US heads into 2026

* The Fed’s monetary policy path has continued to dominate market sentiment since last week’s 25 bps rate cut.

Silver

Silver prices ended marginally lower, settling down 0.07% at 197,755, as investors booked profits after a sharp record-setting rally driven by tightening inventories and strong industrial demand. The recent inclusion of silver on the US critical minerals list had earlier boosted sentiment, alongside expectations of a structural supply deficit. Fundamentals remain supportive over the medium term. Robust ETF inflows and strong retail buying continue to reinforce expectations of a fifth consecutive annual market deficit. Industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and data-center infrastructure remains a key driver, while mine production and recycling have stayed largely flat for more than a decade. China’s announcement of strict export controls on silver from 2026 has intensified near-term buying interest. At the same time, Chinese stockpiles have fallen to decade lows, following record exports of over 660 tonnes in October, contributing to delivery stress and elevated lease rates in London. The LBMA reported silver holdings in London vaults rose 3.5% in November to 27,187 tonnes, though borrowing costs remain high, highlighting ongoing liquidity concerns. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.68% while prices declined by 146, indicating short build-up. Silver has immediate support at 194,885, and a break below this level could drag prices toward 192,010. On the upside, resistance is seen at 200,010, with a sustained move above potentially testing 202,260.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 192010-202260.

* Silver dropped as investors booked profits after a record rally on tightening inventories, strong industrial demand

* Support also seen on loower levels ofter dollar following Fed rate cut, though prospects for further easing in 2026 remain uncertain.

* Additional support came from robust ETF inflows and retail buying, reinforcing expectations of a market deficit in the year ahead.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply, settling down 1.38% at 5,071, as markets grappled with mounting signs of oversupply and rising fears of a global oil glut. Increasing output from OPEC+ and strong production growth from non-OPEC producers, particularly in the Americas, continued to weigh on prices, with Brent crude drifting toward the $50 range. Sentiment was further pressured by expectations that the conflict in Ukraine could move toward a resolution, potentially easing restrictions on Russian oil flows and adding to supply in an already well-balanced market. Weak economic indicators from China also clouded the demand outlook, although downside risks were partially cushioned by geopolitical uncertainty after reports of possible US military action in Venezuela. On the inventory front, US crude oil stocks fell by 1.81 million barrels for the week ended December 5, less than market expectations, while inventories at Cushing rose by 308,000 barrels. Gasoline stockpiles surged by 6.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels, reinforcing concerns over soft near-term demand. The International Energy Agency trimmed its projected 2026 surplus slightly to 3.84 million barrels per day, citing lower supply growth and improving macro conditions, though it still signaled a sizeable oversupply. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest jumping 27.68% while prices fell by 71, indicating aggressive short build-up. Crude oil has immediate support at 5,000, and a break below could trigger a move toward 4,929. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,148, with a sustained move above potentially testing 5,225.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4929-5225.

* Crude oil prices dropped amid signs of oversupply, signaling a global oil glut.

* IEA forecasts a significant surplus in 2026, reflecting growing concerns over worldwide oil oversupply.

* Rising production from OPEC+ and other drillers has pressured futures, with Brent nearing the $50s.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined sharply, settling down 3.76% at 356, as record production levels and ample storage supplies continued to pressure the market. Mild weather forecasts across large parts of the United States ahead of Christmas have reduced expectations for heating demand, reinforcing the bearish tone. LSEG estimates Lower-48 gas output at around 109.7 Bcf per day so far in December, broadly matching the record highs achieved in November, underscoring the persistent supply overhang. On the storage front, the US Energy Information Administration reported a withdrawal of 177 Bcf for the week ended December 5, slightly above market expectations and marking the first meaningful draw of the season. Total gas stocks fell to 3,746 Bcf, standing 0.7% below year-ago levels but still 2.8% above the five-year average, indicating comfortable supply conditions. LNG exports remain a key supportive factor, with November shipments hitting a record 10.9 million metric tonnes, nearly 70% of which were shipped to Europe, reflecting steady overseas demand. However, the longer-term outlook remains supply-heavy. The EIA projects US dry gas production to rise to 107.7 Bcf/d in 2025 and further to 109.1 Bcf/d in 2026, while demand is also expected to grow but at a slower pace. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 10.17% alongside a 13.9 decline in prices, indicating unwinding of bullish positions. Natural gas has immediate support at 349.4, and a break below this level could see prices testing 342.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at 364.2, with a sustained move above potentially opening the path toward 372.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 342.7-372.3.

* Natural gas prices dropped as record production levels and ample storage supplies continue to weigh on prices.

* Weather forecasts across the US point to above-average temperatures for much of the country ahead of Christmas.

* US utilities withdrew 177 Bcf from underground storage in the week ended December 5.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower, settling down 0.34% at 1,105.9, as renewed concerns over demand resurfaced following another round of weak economic data from China. November figures showed further slowing in factory output and retail sales growth, while property investment and property sales by floor area continued to deteriorate, highlighting persistent stress in the world’s largest copper-consuming economy. Adding to near-term pressure, inventories monitored by the SHFE increased, while Peru reported a 4.8% year-on-year rise in October copper production, reinforcing short-term supply comfort. Despite near-term headwinds, the broader outlook remains constructive. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper deficit of 51,000 tons in September, reversing an August surplus and indicating a tightening market trend. Major banks remain optimistic, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton, while ANZ Research expects prices to stay above $11,000 in 2026 and potentially approach $12,000 amid supply constraints and accelerating demand from electric vehicles and energy infrastructure. China’s top smelters have also agreed to cut output by 10% in 2026, supporting expectations of tighter refined copper supply, even as November imports fell for a second month due to high prices. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 1.86% while prices declined by 3.8, indicating short build-up. Copper has immediate support at 1,096.8, and a break below this level could open the door toward 1,087.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,113.9, with a sustained move above likely to test 1,122.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1087.8-1122.

* Copper retreated dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton from $10,650.

* Peru's copper production rises 4.8% in October

Zinc

Zinc prices declined sharply, settling down 1.86% at 302.95, as sentiment weakened amid a surge in exchange inventories and caution ahead of key US economic data. LME zinc stocks jumped by 31,075 metric tons, a sharp 48% increase, taking total inventories to 95,550 tons and exerting immediate pressure on prices. Investor risk appetite also softened as markets awaited US data for clarity on the interest-rate outlook. In China, factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low in November, while new home prices continued to fall, keeping concerns around the property sector firmly in focus. Developer Vanke’s renewed efforts to secure bondholder support for debt repayment further highlighted sectoral stress. Despite near-term weakness, underlying fundamentals remain mixed. The ILZSG reported the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, pointing to gradual tightening. Support also emerged from expectations of a potential Fed rate cut following soft US data and supply-side disruptions in China, where several zinc mines are scheduled for maintenance shutdowns in December, likely reducing concentrate availability. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories fell 12.3% week-on-week, while inventories outside China remain extremely low. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 12.45% while prices fell by 5.75, indicating position unwinding. Zinc has immediate support at 300.9, and a break below could see prices testing 298.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at 306.8, with a sustained move above likely to test 310.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 298.8-310.6.

* Zinc prices dropped as LME zinc inventory increased by 31075 MT, up by 48% bring total to 95,550 mt.

* China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15-month low in November, while new home prices extended a decline.

* A zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown in December, resulting in fewer production days.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged marginally higher, settling up 0.04% at 280.2, supported by improving demand prospects and persistent concerns over tight global supply. Sentiment found support despite mixed signals from China, where aluminium production rose 2.5% year on year to 3.79 million tonnes in November, taking output for the first eleven months to 41.17 million tonnes. While higher production capped gains, inventories continued to trend lower. LME on-warrant stocks fell to 452,600 tonnes following fresh cancellations in Malaysia, while SHFE inventories declined 2.5% over the week, highlighting ongoing physical tightness. Supply-side risks remained a key focus. Australia’s South32 announced plans to place the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique under care and maintenance by March due to unresolved power supply issues. Additional disruptions were reported in Europe, with one potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended following equipment failure. Reflecting tightening availability, global producers sought sharply higher premiums of $190–$203 per tonne from Japanese buyers for January–March shipments. On the outlook, views remain divided. ANZ raised its short-term aluminium price target to $2,900 per tonne, while Goldman Sachs expects prices to ease in 2026 on slowing demand growth and a potential surplus. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 5.76% while prices gained 0.1. Aluminium has immediate support at 278.2, and a break below could test 276.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at 282, with a sustained move above likely to test 283.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 276.2-283.8.

* Aluminium gains supported by improving demand prospects and persistent concerns over tight global supply.

* LME data showed that on-warrant aluminium stocks in the LME-registered warehouses fell to 452,600 tons.

* China, is expected to approach its 45-million-ton annual cap, leaving limited room for further production growth.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices yesterday settled lower by 1.87 percent at 15,860, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favourable monsoon rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remains limited due to below-normal arrivals and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment continues to find support as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their inventories, creating a strong base ahead of the new crop arrivals. Crop conditions remain a key focus. Excessive and continuous rainfall in major growing regions such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Erode has resulted in waterlogging, disease outbreaks and potential rhizome damage. Around 15–20 percent crop damage has been reported in key areas. Arrivals are expected to be delayed to February–March, while IPM and EU/US-compliant material is likely to be available only after May 2026. Carry-forward stocks remain at record-low levels, tightening overall availability and supporting prices. International demand remains firm, particularly from Europe and the USA, while Indonesia’s season has ended with lower-than-normal quality output. On the supply side, turmeric acreage for 2024–25 rose to 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10 percent year-on-year, and further expansion of 15–20 percent is anticipated. Exports during April–September 2025 increased by 4.02 percent year-on-year. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 7.97 percent to 13,005 while prices declined by 302. Turmeric has support at 15,662; a break below could test 15,466. Resistance is seen at 16,108, and a move above this level may push prices towards 16,358.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15466-16358.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and International demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15486 Rupees gained by 0.28 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices yesterday settled higher by 0.86 percent at 21,035, supported by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing, which continue to keep market sentiment firm. Sowing progress in Gujarat, the key producing state, remains slow due to uneven rainfall, with area as of 15 December 2025 reported at 3.24 lakh hectares, down sharply by 13.95 percent compared to last year. At the Unjha spot market, arrivals are very low, and good-quality cumin is commanding premium prices. Logistical issues and weather challenges across India and the Middle East are further tightening near-term supply, lending support to prices. However, the upside appears capped due to comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand. Traders indicate that the retail season has concluded, foreign buying remains inactive, and current export requirements are being met from available inventories. Farmers are estimated to be holding nearly 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded this season, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Export performance during April–September 2025 declined by 14.51 percent year-on-year, despite month-on-month improvement in September shipments. Production estimates for the current season are seen lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing area, while overseas supply constraints have not yet translated into stronger demand for Indian cumin. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 14.09 percent to 3,741 alongside a price gain of 180. Jeera has support at 20,750; below this, prices may test 20,450. Resistance is placed at 21,310, and a decisive break above could open the path towards 21,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20450-21570.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20782.7 Rupees gained by 0.24 percent.

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