IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices settled 0.72% higher at Rs144,162, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and a modest easing in expectations surrounding aggressive U.S. monetary tightening after the release of inflation data. The dollar retreated from recent highs following the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, providing fresh support to bullion. At the same time, newly appointed Fed Chair Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to controlling inflation, reducing concerns over premature policy easing despite political pressure. The Federal Reserve also raised its 2026 PCE inflation projections, while headline PCE inflation accelerated to 4.1% in May. Markets are now pricing in three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, with nearly a 62% probability of the first increase arriving in September. Physical market trends remained mixed across major consuming regions. Gold traded at a premium in India for the first time in nearly six weeks as the recent price correction encouraged buying, although overall demand remained moderate. In contrast, Chinese bullion continued to trade at discounts, reflecting subdued consumer demand despite the People’s Bank of China extending its gold reserve purchases for a 19th consecutive month. However, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong declined by around 38% in May. Meanwhile, London vault holdings increased marginally to 9,392 tonnes, while the World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs witnessed US$2 billion in net outflows during May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America, although year-to-date ETF inflows remain firmly positive. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.18% while prices advanced sharply. Gold is holding immediate support near Rs 143,165, followed by rs142,165, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 144,975. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 145,785, keeping the near-term bias cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142165-145785.

*  Gold edged higher as dollar weakened and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes eased slightly following inflation data.

*  The headline PCE inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in May.

*  Gold started trading at a premium in India for the first time in a month and a half

Silver

Silver prices settled 0.79% higher at Rs 221,404, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields after the latest U.S. PCE inflation data broadly matched market expectations. Although inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the report eased concerns over a sharper rise in price pressures, improving sentiment across precious metals. Additionally, crude oil prices continued to retreat to levels seen before the Iran conflict, reducing inflationary concerns and offering further support to silver. Market expectations for U.S. monetary policy remain focused on a September rate hike, with traders currently assigning a 92% probability to such a move. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture, as the goods trade deficit widened sharply to US$105.8 billion in May, the largest in over a year, driven by stronger imports despite higher tariffs. Wholesale inventories also increased 0.3% during the month, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise and indicating stable business stocking activity. Fundamental developments in the physical silver market remained significant. Silver holdings in London vaults rose 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 920,378 silver bars. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged 87% in value and 94% in volume from a year earlier to the lowest level since February 2023 after the government imposed stricter import restrictions and raised import duties to 15%. These measures were introduced to curb precious metals imports and reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves following record silver imports during the previous financial year. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 33.72% while prices advanced. Silver has immediate support at Rs 219,675, followed by Rs 217,940, while resistance is seen at Rs 223,470. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 225,530, keeping the near-term outlook cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 217940-225530.

* Silver recovered as a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields provided support after US PCE inflation report.

* Inflation remains well above Fed’s 2% target, data eased concerns about a sharper-than-expected acceleration in price pressures.

* Traders are pricing in about a 62% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, lower than an earlier expectation of 64%.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 3.14% lower at Rs 6,577, extending recent losses as easing supply concerns outweighed supportive inventory data from the United States. Market sentiment improved after more oil tankers successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, reducing fears of prolonged supply disruptions despite a cargo vessel being struck near Oman. Additional pressure came after Saudi Aramco resumed crude loading operations at its Ras Tanura terminal following a nearly four-month suspension, signaling a gradual normalization of regional exports. Reports that Iraq is considering leaving OPEC if it is not allowed to significantly raise production also added uncertainty to the producer alliance. Meanwhile, UBS lowered its Brent crude price forecasts, citing expectations of improving Middle Eastern supplies, while Saudi Arabia is expected to sharply reduce its August official selling prices for Asian buyers following the recent decline in spot crude prices. On the supply-demand front, the latest U.S. inventory data offered mixed signals. Crude oil inventories declined by 6.09 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 4.5 million-barrel draw, indicating firm refinery demand. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also fell by 1.08 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories increased by 2.06 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 3.06 million barrels, suggesting comfortable fuel supplies despite the decline in crude inventories. Net crude imports also recorded a modest increase during the week. Separately, OPEC's May crude production dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades, largely due to disruptions affecting Iranian exports and reduced shipments from Gulf producers during the regional conflict. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 7.15% while prices declined sharply. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs 6,487, followed by Rs6,396, while resistance is seen at Rs 6,679. A sustained recovery above this level could push prices toward Rs6,780, although the near-term bias remains cautious unless key resistance levels are decisively breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6396-6780.

* Crude oil prices plunged as more oil tankers exited the Strait ‌of Hormuz, easing supply concerns.

* Iraq warns it might leave OPEC if oil quota not raised

* UBS cut its Brent oil price forecasts, lowering its targets to $85 per barrel for the end of September and December

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.38% higher at Rs 312.9, supported by stronger flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities and forecasts for above-normal temperatures that are expected to boost electricity demand for air conditioning. Weather forecasts indicate warmer-than-normal conditions will persist through July 11, increasing natural gas consumption by power generators, which account for nearly 40% of U.S. electricity generation. According to LSEG, average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states remained steady at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June, close to record levels. The firm also expects total gas demand, including exports, to rise from 102.8 bcfd this week to 108.6 bcfd over the next two weeks. LNG export activity also remained firm, with average feedgas flows to the nine major U.S. export plants increasing to 17.3 bcfd in June, supported by record deliveries to the Golden Pass LNG facility in Texas. Fundamental data continued to reflect a balanced market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended June 19, broadly in line with market expectations and close to the five-year seasonal average, leaving inventories around 5.7% above normal. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026. Dry gas production is projected to increase to 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.1 bcfd. LNG exports are also expected to climb to 17.2 bcfd, reflecting expanding export capacity and steady international demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 9.73% while prices moved higher. Natural gas has immediate support at Rs 309, followed by rs 305.1, while resistance is placed at Rs 318.1. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 323.3, indicating a cautiously positive near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 305.1-323.3.

* Natural gas rose supported by increased flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for hotter weather in coming weeks.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states held at 109.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in June.

* The U.S. EIA said energy firms added a near-normal 76 bcf of gas into storage.

Copper

Copper prices settled 0.40% higher at Rs1,266.65, supported by declining exchange inventories and an improving medium-term supply outlook, although gains remained capped by easing geopolitical tensions. LME copper stocks declined to 339,100 metric tons, their lowest level since mid-March, while inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.7% from the previous week to 135,732 metric tons, the lowest since December. However, the cash LME contract continued to trade at a US$40 per ton discount to the three-month contract, suggesting that near-term physical supply remains adequate. Market sentiment also turned cautious after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace negotiations, reducing immediate concerns over global supply disruptions. Fundamentally, the copper market continues to present a mixed outlook. China's refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year in May to 1.26 million metric tons, while unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% to a seven-month high, supported by robust investment in power grid infrastructure. The International Copper Study Group reported a 145,000 metric ton global refined copper deficit in April, compared with a surplus in March, although the market still recorded a cumulative surplus during the first four months of the year. Long-term market sentiment remains constructive, with Jefferies forecasting an average annual supply deficit through 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Citi both raised their copper price forecasts, citing slower mine supply growth, stronger global demand, and persistent structural supply shortages despite higher visible inventories. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 4.59% alongside higher prices, indicating the formation of new long positions. Copper has immediate support at Rs1,263.4, followed by Rs 1,260.2, while resistance is seen at Rs1,270.4. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 1,274.2, maintaining a constructive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1260.2-1274.2.

* Copper prices gained as copper stocks on the LME continued to decrease.

* Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks fell 5.7% from last week to 135,732 tons, the lowest since December.

* Global refined copper market showed a 145,000 deficit in April, compared with a 23,000 metric tons surplus in March – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.41% higher at Rs 358.65, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and production disruptions at several major mining and smelting operations. Although the U.S. dollar strengthened to a 13-month high on expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, concerns over supply availability outweighed the impact of a stronger dollar. Market sentiment remained supported after Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan continued operating at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru faced temporary disruptions due to fire damage, with production only gradually resuming. In addition, the earlier seismic event at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine continued to raise concerns over prolonged production losses, reinforcing expectations of a tighter refined zinc market. Fundamental data presented a mixed picture. China's refined zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting stable domestic supply, while the country's central bank maintained an accommodative monetary policy aimed at supporting domestic demand and industrial activity. Meanwhile, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses edged 0.1% lower, highlighting steady physical demand. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 metric tons in March, although the market remained in surplus during the first four months of the year. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus in 2026 due to improving mine supply but forecasts slower production growth from 2027 onward, potentially pushing markets outside China into deficit. Global zinc demand is projected to grow by around 2% annually over the next two years. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.42% while prices advanced, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Zinc has immediate support at Rs354.7, followed by Rs 350.6, while resistance is seen at Rs361.0. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 363.2, keeping the near-term technical outlook positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 350.6-363.2.

* Zinc gained supported by tight near-term supply conditions.

* The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 tons in March  - ILZSG

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 0.1% from last release on Jun 18.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.26% higher at Rs 332.9, supported by declining exchange inventories and expectations of tighter medium-term global supply. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.7% from the previous reporting period, indicating steady physical demand. However, gains remained limited as the geopolitical risk premium continued to fade following the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, reducing concerns over immediate supply disruptions. Broader market sentiment also remained cautious as investors increasingly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year in response to persistent inflation, creating headwinds for the base metals complex. Meanwhile, the LME cash-to-three-month spread remained in a slight contango of US$3.46 per tonne, suggesting improved near-term supply availability. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed outlook. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes. Goldman Sachs continues to maintain a constructive long-term outlook, forecasting a 720,000-tonne global aluminium deficit in 2026, driven by slower recovery of smelting operations in the UAE and Bahrain. In China, aluminium imports increased 6.9% year-on-year in March, while refined aluminium production rose 1.7% in May, extending a nine-month growth streak. Production for the first five months of 2026 increased 3.5%, supported by previously elevated international prices. China's exports also remained strong, with shipments of unwrought aluminium and products rising 5.7% in May and more than 10% during the first five months of the year. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 11.98% alongside higher prices, indicating the addition of new long positions. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs 328.8, followed by Rs 324.6, while resistance is placed at Rs 337.9. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 342.8, keeping the near-term technical outlook moderately bullish.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.6-342.8.

* Aluminium gains as inventories in SHFE warehouses fell 2.7%

* However upside seen limited with the Middle East war risk premium fading as a fragile peace in the region continues to hold.

* Markets increasingly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year, amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 1.11% higher at Rs16,590, recovering on short covering after recent declines driven by increased selling from farmers during the peak harvest season. Although daily arrivals in major producing mandis have remained strong and exceeded immediate demand, bargain buying and short covering helped prices rebound. Farmers who had previously withheld stocks in anticipation of higher prices have accelerated sales, while sizeable inventories of around 1.13 lakh bags at Warangal continued to keep buyers cautious. Reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in a portion of fresh arrivals also pressured lower-grade supplies, although premium quality produce continued to attract steady demand. Fundamental factors remain mixed for the medium term. The southwest monsoon has progressed across southern India, improving prospects for the upcoming sowing season and supporting expectations of healthy acreage during 2026-27. Early reports suggest an expansion in turmeric cultivation following the recent period of elevated prices. Despite increased arrivals, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than the previous season's level of more than 20 lakh bags, limiting overall supply availability. Export demand remained broadly stable, with India's turmeric exports increasing 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset weaker exports to the UAE and the United States. Bangladesh remained the largest importer, while growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and continued procurement by Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric provided additional support to market sentiment. Meanwhile, spot prices at Nizamabad also strengthened modestly, reflecting stable physical demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.85% alongside higher prices, indicating the addition of new long positions. Turmeric has immediate support at Rs16,292, followed by Rs15,994, while resistance is seen at Rs 16,816. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs17,042, keeping the near-term technical outlook constructive.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15994-17042.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15927.5 Rupees gained by 0.22 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 1.20% lower at Rs 20,200, as profit booking emerged after the recent rally despite continued concerns over tightening supplies of premium-quality cumin. While overall crop availability remains adequate, the availability of export-grade bold seeds has tightened considerably due to quality issues and slower market arrivals. Daily arrivals at major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have declined as the peak post-harvest selling season has passed. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms in key producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan affected seed quality by increasing moisture content and reducing colour, creating a wider price gap between average and premium-grade cumin. Farmers and stockists are also releasing high-quality stocks gradually, limiting spot availability and supporting the premium segment. Market fundamentals remain cautiously supportive despite softer domestic demand. Spice processors and traders continue to follow a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy rather than aggressive forward buying, resulting in steady but limited demand. Market participants are also closely monitoring the progress of the southwest monsoon, as early rainfall patterns will influence soil moisture and sentiment ahead of the next sowing season. Export demand remains favourable for residue-compliant and premium-quality cumin, with buyers from Europe and North America actively sourcing high-specification lots. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to around 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, mainly due to reduced sowing acreage. Global production estimates have also declined in China because of adverse weather. Meanwhile, India's jeera exports fell 18% year-on-year in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp decline in shipments to the UAE, although exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil registered strong growth. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.78% while prices moved lower. Jeera has immediate support at Rs 20,070, followed by Rs19,930, while resistance is placed at Rs 20,390. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs20,570, although the near-term trend remains range-bound with a cautious bias.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19930-20570.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20500.1 Rupees dropped by -0.24 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views