MCX Crude oil July is likely to move in a wider range of Rs6400-Rs6850 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to face strong resistance near $4100 and move towards $4000 level amid strong dollar and hawkish comments from US Fed members. Further, renewed exchanges of attacks between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices and rekindled inflation concerns. However, both sides later agreed to suspend further attacks ahead of peace talks set to resume this week in Doha. Moreover, recent liquidation in both gold and silver is negative for prices. Latest data shows, falling long holdings in gold ETF’s to a 7-month low. Also, long holdings in silver ETFs fell to an 11-month low last week. On the other hand persistent buying form central banks may limit its downside.
* MCX Gold Aug is expected to face hurdle near Rs145,000-Rs145,500 level and move lower towards Rs142,000 level
* MCX Silver July is expected to dip towards Rs 215,000-Rs216,000 level as long as it stays below Rs228,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to find support and trade with positive bias amid strong demand outlook from China and depleting LME inventory levels. China’s industrial profit surged to a 4 month high in May with gain over 18.8% YoY. The latest result reflected the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector. Further, depleting inventory levels would also support the metals to holds its gains. Meanwhile, strong dollar and concerns over tighter monetary policy in major economies may push borrowing cost higher clouding outlook for global economic growth and industrial metal demands.
* MCX Copper July is expected to move towards Rs1280 level as long as it stays above Rs1250 level. A break above Rs1280 level prices may be pushed towards Rs1300 level
* MCX Aluminum July is expected to slip towards Rs327-Rs328 level as long as its stays below Rs338 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold support Rs354 level and rise towards Rs360-Rs364 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to move in the band of $68 and $72 in today’s session as investors will eye further progress in peace talks between US and Iran. A renewed tension between US and Iran last week has come to a halt after both side agreed to halt further strikes ahead of peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. Meanwhile, signs of gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and increased movement of ships through Strait would increase oil flows and restrict any major upside in prices. On the data front, latest CFTC data, showed further fall in speculative net longs to pre-war levels, which indicates wanning bullish sentiments.
* MCX Crude oil July is likely to move in a wider range of Rs6400-Rs6850 level. Only a move below Rs 6400, it would slip towards Rs6200.
* MCX Natural gas July is expected to rise towards Rs 315-Rs320 level as long as it stays above Rs300 level.
Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631
