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Gold

Gold yesterday settled marginally down by -0.02% at 110,156 amid profit booking, as investors digested stronger-than-expected US economic data while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. August retail sales rose more than anticipated, and import prices saw their largest rise in seven months, surprising analysts who had expected a decline. Despite the stronger data, signs of a cooling US labor market continued to fuel expectations that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut—the first since December—and potentially signal an easing cycle extending into 2026. This year, gold has already rallied approximately 40%, supported by geopolitical tensions, strong central bank demand, and sustained ETF inflows. Commerzbank revised its gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce by year-end and $3,800 by the end of 2026, while UBS projected $3,800 by end-2025 and $3,900 by mid-2026, citing Fed easing and dollar weakness as key drivers. Physical gold demand across Asia remained subdued as record-high prices deterred retail purchases, with China offering discounts of $17–$24 per ounce. However, China’s central bank continued its gold purchases into the 10th consecutive month. In India, discounts narrowed to $6 from up to $12 last week, while Hong Kong and Singapore saw slight premiums. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping -7.55% to 14,394. Gold now finds support at 109,885, with a further test of 109,610 possible if support breaks. Resistance stands at 110,550, and a sustained move above could target 110,940.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 109610-110940.

* Gold dropped on profit booking as investors weighed stronger-than-expected US economic data.

* August retail sales rose more than anticipated, while import prices posted their largest increase in seven months.

* UBS raised its gold price forecast by $300 to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025 and by $200 to $3,900 by mid-2026.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 128,820 on profit booking, following recent gains as investors positioned for the US Federal Reserve’s expected 25 basis point rate cut this week. Markets are now almost fully pricing in this reduction, with expectations of 67 basis points of easing by year-end, supported by cooling US labor market data and subdued inflation. US President Donald Trump also intensified pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a larger cut, citing weakness in the housing market. Meanwhile, other major central banks such as Canada and China are expected to ease policy, while Japan and the UK are likely to maintain status quo. Industrial demand for silver remains robust, driven by sectors such as solar, electric vehicles, and electronics, tightening the physical silver market and supporting prices amid supply constraints. Silver ETP investments have surged, with net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, surpassing the total for all of last year.  Retail investment in India remains strong, with a 7% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, while European retail investment is recovering but remains below past elevated levels. The global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025 due to increased supply and falling demand, though industrial use stays steady. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped -6.13% to 17,168. Silver now finds support at 127,900, with a further test of 126,985 possible. Resistance stands at 130,090, and a sustained move above this could target 131,365.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 126985-131365.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices gained as investors positioned for an expected Fed rate cut

* The latest US Retail Sales report showed stronger-than-expected consumer spending in August, easing recession fears.

* US business inventories rose by 0.2% month-over-month in July 2025, matching June's pace and coming in line with market expectations.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.92% at 5694 as markets factored in potential supply disruptions from Russia due to renewed Ukrainian drone attacks targeting key ports and refineries. The latest strike formed part of a broader effort by Ukraine to impair Russian energy infrastructure, notably the Primorsk export hub. Goldman Sachs estimates these attacks have sidelined about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity in August and early September. Further concerns emerged as pipeline operators imposed tighter storage limits, adding to supply bottlenecks. The European Union is also considering new sanctions aimed at firms in India and China that facilitate Russian oil trade. On the macro front, investor focus remains on the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. Easing monetary policy is anticipated to bolster US economic growth, thereby supporting energy demand. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week ending September 5, reaching 424.6 million barrels, defying expectations of a 1 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels to 220 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles surged by 4.7 million barrels to 120.6 million barrels, well above market expectations. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest surged by 58.9% to settle at 6863. Current support is seen at 5592, with a further test of 5490 possible. Resistance now stands at 5747, and a breakthrough could push prices towards 5800, indicating bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5490-5800.

* Crude oil rose amid potential disruption of supplies from Russia due to Ukrainian drone attacks.

* Goldman Sachs estimates that the Ukrainian attacks have taken out about 300,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity.

* The EU is considering new sanctions, including those targeting firms in India and China that facilitate Moscow’s oil trade.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled up by 3.12% at 274.1 amid a notable drop in daily output. The rise came despite forecasts for softer demand over the next two weeks, ample gas in storage, and stagnant flows to LNG export plants. LSEG reported that average gas output in the Lower 48 states declined to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to fall to a preliminary three-month low of 105.1 bcfd on Tuesday, primarily due to pipeline maintenance and production declines in Texas, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. US energy firms injected 71 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 5, surpassing market expectations of 68 bcf. The build was significantly higher than last year’s 36 bcf and the five-year average of 56 bcf. Storage levels remained 1.1% below last year but were 6% above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects natural gas production and demand to hit record highs in 2025 before a slight decline in 2026.  Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -12.87% to settle at 23169. Support is now seen at 267.8, with a test of 261.4 possible. Resistance stands at 278.4, and a breakout above could see prices testing 282.6, indicating bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 261.4-282.6.

* Natural gas edged up on a drop in daily output.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 before sliding in 2026 – EIA

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 915.8 amid profit-taking, after prices had rallied on hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut and positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations. Officials from both countries reached a framework agreement over TikTok, lifting market sentiment and limiting the extent of losses. On the supply front, China reported a 5% drop in September copper production, reducing about 500,000 tonnes from the global market, while inventories remain near multi-year lows. LME stockpiles are around 40% below the five-year average, adding to supply concerns. Major disruptions also continued as Freeport-McMoRan confirmed its Grasberg mine in Indonesia will remain shut due to ongoing rescue operations for missing workers. The global copper surplus shrank sharply to just 36,000 metric tons in June, compared to 79,000 tons in May, while the first half of 2025 showed a surplus of 251,000 tons, significantly lower than 395,000 tons in the same period last year. Chile’s Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine posted year-on-year production increases in July, while Collahuasi mine’s output fell by 27.2%. Meanwhile, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 14.9% from last Friday, suggesting some easing of supply tightness.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down -10.42% at 4334. Support is seen at 913.2, with a possible test of 910.5 if prices fall further. Resistance is likely at 919.2, and a move above could target 922.5, indicating short-term bullish attempts despite current profit-taking.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 910.5-922.5.

* Copper prices retreated amid profit-taking after prices rose amid bets of a U.S. rate cut

* Chile expects copper output to expand this year despite setbacks at two major mines

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 14.9% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up marginally by 0.05% at 283.15, supported by a weakening US dollar and tightening supply conditions in China. Beijing’s renewed efforts to curb overcapacity in key industrial sectors, aimed at tackling persistent deflationary pressures, are expected to further reduce zinc output. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic data showed continued weakness, with industrial production in August falling to a one-year low and retail sales slowing to an eight-month low, both missing market expectations. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 8.8% from last Friday, indicating a slight increase in stockpiles, while LME registered zinc stocks continued to decline, down to 50,150 tons—nearly a 75% drop since mid-April. Cancelled warrants suggest another 15,375 tons are set to leave the LME system, fuelling concerns about zinc availability and contributing to a backwardation structure where the cash contract trades around $18 per ton above the three-month forward. On the supply side, September production is projected to dip by 16,400 mt to 609,800 mt, though the downside remains limited amid possible capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners. Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine saw a 20% drop in Q1 output, and Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut earlier this year.  Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with open interest dropping -5.52% to 3202. Support is seen at 281.4, with a further test of 279.7 likely if prices decline. On the upside, resistance is at 284.6, and a break above may target 286.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 279.7-286.1.

* Zinc gains amid weakening US dollar and tightening supply conditions in China.

* China is expected to reduce output following Beijing’s renewed efforts to curb overcapacity in key industrial sectors.

* Industrial production in August fell to a one-year low, missing market expectations

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled marginally up by 0.1% at 260.35, supported by a combination of supply concerns and speculative bullish positions. China’s aluminium production fell by 0.5% in August, reaching 3.8 million metric tons compared to the previous year. This decline contributed to tightening supply sentiment, especially as primary aluminium stocks in the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged by nearly 100,000 tonnes in the first third of the month, now standing at 375,000 tonnes. Additional supply concerns arose after Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses when Guinea’s military-led government transferred mining leases to a state-run entity, which may impact ore supplies to major producer Emirates Global Aluminium. Despite the supply-side worries, the global primary aluminium market faced a supply surplus in June, where production reached 6.0944 million tons against consumption of 5.9113 million tons, leaving a surplus of 183,100 tons. The premium offered by global producers to Japanese buyers for primary metal shipments for October-December declined to $98-$103 per ton, indicating weakening demand. China’s export of unwrought aluminium and products in July rose to 542,000 tons from 489,000 tons in June, while imports surged by 38.2% YoY to 360,000 tons.  Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -6.64% to 4024 contracts. Aluminium is currently finding support at 259.6, with a further test of 258.8 if prices decline. Resistance lies at 261, and a breakout above that could see prices testing 261.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.8-261.6.

* Aluminium gains as China's aluminium production fell by 0.5 % to 3.8 million metric tons in August.

* Prices gained as speculative bullish positions and quick demand for physical aluminium.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose to 335,300 metric tons at the end of August, up 6.3% from the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 12,106 amid an increase in acreage driven by favourable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as heavy rainfall caused damage to standing turmeric crops in key growing regions. In Nanded, approximately 15% of turmeric crop area was reportedly affected by adverse weather conditions. The India Meteorological Department’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September for some parts of South India has raised concerns among turmeric growers. At the same time, turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals over the last two days, supporting price stability. Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions, while low inflows and cautious selling are helping maintain firmness in prices. The current dry weather conditions favor timely planting, and preliminary estimates suggest that turmeric acreage may increase by 15-20%, as other crop options are seen as less profitable. In the 2024-25 season, the area under turmeric rose to 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the previous season. In export markets, turmeric exports during April-June 2025 rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared to the same period in 2024, though June exports saw a 7.93% decline year-on-year and a 28.21% drop from May 2025.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by -0.42% to settle at 16,665. Support is seen at 11,952, with a further test of 11,800 likely if prices fall. On the upside, resistance is seen at 12,326, and a breakout above could see prices testing 12,548.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11800-12548.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12965.45 Rupees dropped by -0.74 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled marginally down by -0.05% at 19,585 amid weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. The market faced pressure due to continued inactivity from foreign buyers, comfortable domestic supplies, and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks. Traders noted that current export business is being met from existing inventory, as farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, though only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the season’s end, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production this year is expected to be in the range of 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing area, despite favorable crop conditions and good sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Geopolitical disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have trimmed their supplies, yet India’s export demand remains limited, weakening overall market confidence. Cumin production estimates for China were revised downward to 70–80 thousand tons due to adverse weather.  Jeera exports during April-June 2025 declined by -19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes from 73,666.09 tonnes in the same period last year. June exports rose by 10.26% year-on-year but dropped by 29.67% compared to May 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest rose by 10.45% to settle at 3,456 while prices fell by -10 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 19,470, and a breach of this could test 19,350. Resistance is likely at 19,680, and a breakout above could see prices testing 19,770.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19350-19770.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19546.25 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

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