IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices extended weakness, settling lower by -0.71% at 98,696, as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on safe-haven demand after former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed hope for progress toward ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The market is also awaiting the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, expected to provide fresh cues on the U.S. economic outlook. On the institutional front, UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 to $3,600, citing persistent U.S. macroeconomic risks, declining global reliance on the dollar, and strong investment flows. From the demand side, India’s gold ETF holdings surged 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tonnes by June 30, 2025, with assets under management rising 88% to 64,777 crore. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% YoY in Q2 2025 to 1,249 tonnes, supported by a 78% jump in investment demand, despite weak jewelry consumption. Notably, gold jewelry demand fell 14% to 341 tonnes, its lowest since Q3 2020, largely due to high prices deterring buyers in India and China. In physical markets, Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $6/oz against domestic prices, improving slightly from last week’s $9, while festive demand ahead of Dussehra and Diwali is expected to lend support.  Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.19% to 13,956 lots. Immediate support lies at 98,365, below which prices could test 98,030. On the upside, resistance is seen at 99,275, and a breakout above may push prices toward 99,850.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 98030-99850.

* Gold dropped after Trump said he hoped Russia's Vladimir Putin would move toward ending the war in Ukraine.

* U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to urge the Federal Reserve to pursue deeper rate cuts.

* India’s gold ETF holdings rose 42% year-on-year to 66.68 tonnes as of June 30, 2025.

Silver

Silver prices slipped sharply by -1.98% to 111345 as optimism around progress in Ukraine peace negotiations weighed on safe-haven demand. The geopolitical tone was underscored by President Trump’s discussions with European leaders and his effort to facilitate direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, markets shifted focus toward the Jackson Hole symposium and the upcoming release of the FOMC July minutes, which are expected to provide greater clarity on monetary policy direction. Fed commentary remained mixed, with officials pointing to persistent inflation risks but also acknowledging strong labor market conditions. Producer prices in July rose by 0.9% MoM, the highest in three years, reinforcing concerns of stagflationary pressures and tempering expectations of aggressive rate cuts. On the investment front, silver continues to enjoy robust demand. Silver ETP holdings surged to 1.13 billion ounces by June, marking their strongest semi-annual inflows since 2021 and reflecting bullish sentiment. Retail demand showed resilience, particularly in Europe and India, the latter posting a 7% YoY rise in H1 2025 despite elevated prices. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure as open interest climbed by 12.17% to 16973, signaling short build-up. Prices are now finding support at 110505, with a break below exposing 109665 levels. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 112885, and a sustained move above could push prices toward 114425.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 109665-114425.

* Silver weakened as Ukraine peace progress reduced safe-haven investor demand.

* Markets eye Jackson Hole symposium for labor market and policy outlook.

* Bostic expects one 2025 rate cut, citing strong labor market.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices slipped by -1.68% to 5400 as the market weighed geopolitical and supply-side developments. Traders focused on the possibility of peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S., which could pave the way for sanctions relief on Russian crude, potentially boosting global supply. Reports indicated that Chinese refineries booked 15 cargoes of Russian oil for October and November delivery, partly offsetting weaker Indian demand. However, the broader market sentiment remained pressured, with crude hovering near a two-month low following a bearish IEA forecast projecting a record global surplus of 2.96 million bpd in 2026, driven by surging OPEC+ production. On the supply-demand balance, U.S. EIA data added further downside pressure, showing a crude inventory build of 3.037 million barrels, against expectations of a 0.8-million-barrel draw, alongside a 45,000-barrel rise at Cushing. Refined product inventories showed mixed trends, with gasoline stocks falling by 0.792 million barrels, while distillates rose by 0.714 million barrels, signaling uneven demand conditions. Meanwhile, OPEC painted a more balanced medium-term outlook. In its monthly report, the group raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.38 million bpd, while trimming non-OPEC supply growth estimates to 630,000 bpd from earlier projections. Technically, crude remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest surging 22.07% to 15,368 as prices fell by 92 rupees. The commodity is finding support at 5371, with further downside likely towards 5341 if broken. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 5451, with a breakout potentially testing 5501 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5341-5501.

* Crude falls as Russia-Ukraine-US talks raise hopes of sanction relief, more supply.

* Chinese refineries bought 15 Russian oil cargoes for October-November delivery.

* IEA forecasts record 2026 surplus of 2.96 million barrels daily.

Natural gas

Natural gas futures dropped sharply, settling -5.54% lower at 240.5, as the market remained pressured by near-record output and strong storage builds. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.1 bcfd so far in August, slightly higher than July’s record of 107.9 bcfd, underscoring robust supply conditions. Despite hotter-than-normal summer weather, steady production has enabled above-average injections into storage. The latest EIA report showed a 56 bcf storage build for the week ending August 8, surpassing both market expectations of 53 bcf and seasonal norms. This lifted total inventories to 3.186 trillion cubic feet, about 6.6% above the five-year average, though still 2.4% below last year’s levels. On the demand side, LNG feedgas flows averaged 16.2 bcfd in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July, reflecting steady export momentum. Looking forward, the U.S. EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook highlighted expectations of record supply and demand in 2025 before a modest easing in 2026. The agency sees dry gas output rising to 106.4 bcfd in 2025 from 103.2 bcfd in 2024, before slipping to 106.1 bcfd in 2026. Domestic consumption is projected at 91.4 bcfd in 2025, also a record, before easing slightly in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9.7% to 38,711 alongside a price fall of 14.1 rupees, signaling bearish momentum. Natural gas is finding immediate support at 233.8, with further downside risk towards 227 if broken. On the upside, resistance is placed at 250.3, and a breakout above this could open the path towards 260 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 227-260.

* Natural gas fell pressured by near-record production and strong storage levels.

* Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.1 bcfd so far in August, up from July’s record 107.9 bcfd.

* Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, robust supply has allowed above-average injections into storage.

Copper

Copper yesterday closed lower by -0.95% at 873.9, pressured by rising output from key producers even as demand expectations in China offered some support. Peru’s copper output surged 7.1% year-on-year in June, largely due to stronger production from the Las Bambas mine. At the same time, China’s renewed pledge to stimulate consumption has underpinned sentiment, with seasonal demand from its power and construction sectors expected to remain firm. On the price outlook, Citi raised its 0–3 month copper forecast to $9,200 per tonne from $8,800, citing a more gradual unwinding of U.S. copper inventories tied to Section 232 tariffs, alongside dollar weakness cushioning downside risks. On the supply side, Chile’s Cochilco maintained its 2025–2026 average copper price forecast at $4.30 per pound, while slightly trimming production projections. Chile’s output is expected to grow 1.5% this year to 5.58 million tons, slower than earlier estimates. Meanwhile, Zambia posted a significant rise in first-half production to 439,644 tons versus 373,263 tons last year, while Codelco’s output jumped 17% in June.  China’s import appetite remains robust, with July copper concentrate imports rising 9% to 2.56 million tons, reflecting record smelting demand. Unwrought copper imports also increased 3.4% to 480,000 tons, though growth slowed from June’s 9% due to price constraints and supply pressures. Technically, copper is under long liquidation as open interest fell -7.85% to 4,322 while prices dropped -8.4 rupees. Immediate support lies at 870.4, with a break lower opening 866.8, while resistance is at 880.1 and above that at 886.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 866.8-886.2.

* Copper dropped as output in Peru, rose 7.1% year-on-year in June

* China's refined copper production in July rose by 14% from the year

* However, China's latest pledge to continue to boost consumption reignited demand hopes.

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.64% to settle at 264.1, weighed down by rising inventories and weak macroeconomic signals. Domestic zinc ingot inventories across seven key markets rose to 135,400 mt, up 16,300 mt from August 11, reflecting persistent surplus conditions. This build-up in stocks, coupled with a stronger US dollar index and uncertainty over global interest rate trends, exerted additional downward pressure. The demand outlook also remains fragile as a series of soft Chinese economic data highlighted industrial production slowing to a seven-month low in July, retail sales growth easing to a six-month low, and the unemployment rate touching a four-month high. On the supply side, global dynamics remain mixed. While Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% fall in output and Nyrstar announced a 25% annual production cut, Chinese zinc production in July surged 23% YoY and 3% MoM, surpassing expectations due to delayed maintenance and release of new capacity in Henan and Yunnan. However, some smelters in South China were disrupted by heavy rainfall, limiting output in certain regions. Globally, the zinc market shifted to a 44,100-tonne deficit in May after a surplus in April, but the first five months of 2025 still showed a surplus of 88,000 tonnes, though sharply lower than last year’s 214,000 tonnes. The market is under long liquidation with open interest dropping 5.89% to 2,092 contracts, while prices eased by 1.7. Support is now seen at 263.2, with a break below opening the door to 262.3. Resistance lies at 265.3, and a move above could push prices toward 266.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 262.3-266.5.

* Zinc dropped as total zinc ingot inventory in seven locations was 135,400 mt, an increase of 16,300 mt from August 11.

* Expectations for an interest rate cut fluctuated on the macro level, and the US dollar index rose, putting pressure on prices.

* Pressure also seen as a wave of underwhelming economic data from China fueled concerns over softening demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices extended their decline, settling lower by 1.27% at 248.8, marking the third straight session of losses. The market was pressured by prospects that peace talks between the U.S. and Russia could pave the way for increased Russian supply. Sentiment also weakened after the U.S. administration expanded its 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to cover hundreds of additional products, with further measures targeting steel and semiconductor chips expected in the coming weeks. Despite this, downside pressure remained limited as robust demand prospects and ongoing supply constraints continue to provide underlying support. In China, which accounts for over half of global aluminium output, production in July rose by 1.05% year-on-year and 3.11% month-on-month, though overall annual output remains capped at 45 million tonnes under Beijing’s capacity control policy. On the global front, European supply remains tight due to ongoing sanctions on Russia, another key producer. Demand indicators were encouraging, with China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and related products rising to 542,000 tonnes in July, up from 489,000 tonnes in June. Meanwhile, imports also surged, climbing 38.2% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes in July. Aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 14.69% to 2,723 contracts. Prices slipped by 3.2, with immediate support at 247.5 and further downside risk toward 246. On the upside, resistance is placed at 251.5, and a break higher could see prices testing 254.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 246-254.

* Aluminium slid as the prospect of an end to the Ukraine war might allow major producer Russia to boost supply.

* China's imports of unwrought aluminium and products in July surged 38.2% from the prior year.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 315,400 metric tons at the end of July, down 0.4%.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures closed 0.88% higher at 13,342, supported by tight supplies in key markets like Warangal, where farmer-held stocks are nearly exhausted and no fresh arrivals were reported in the past two sessions. Limited inflows and cautious selling are keeping the undertone firm, though the upside remains capped by expectations of higher acreage this season. Favourable monsoon conditions have encouraged timely sowing, and preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% in 2025–26. For the ongoing 2024–25 season, the area under turmeric has already reached 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. At the Duggirala market, fresh arrivals are witnessing strong demand, with new crop consistently fetching a premium over older stocks due to superior quality. Daily trading volumes remain steady at 1,000–1,200 bags of 70 kg each, indicating active participation despite the season nearing its end. So far, around 50–55% of the new crop has been traded, while arrivals are expected to continue through June, ensuring robust market activity. On the export front, turmeric demand has been upbeat. During Apr–May 2025, exports rose 8.37% to 34,162.28 tonnes, compared with 31,524.59 tonnes in the same period last year. In May 2025, exports jumped 10.28% year-on-year and a sharp 28.41% month-on-month, underscoring strong overseas demand. Technically, turmeric is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.15% to 17,155, alongside a price gain of 116 rupees. Immediate support lies at 13,260, with further downside risk towards 13,176, while resistance is seen at 13,398, and a breakout could lift prices to 13,452.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13176-13452.

* Turmeric gains as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13675.25 Rupees dropped by -0.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures closed 0.70% higher at 19,370, supported by short covering after recent weakness triggered by subdued domestic and export demand post the retail season. Market participants note that the downtrend was largely due to comfortable supply levels, limited foreign buying, and tepid trade activity, with current export needs being met from existing stocks. Farmers are still holding about 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving a sizeable carryover stock of around 16 lakh bags. On the production front, the current season is projected to remain at par with last year as favorable sowing and crop conditions supported yields. However, sowing area reductions have trimmed India’s overall cumin output estimate to 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. State-wise, production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan.  Exports, however, remain under pressure. During Apr–May 2025, jeera exports dropped 27.07% to 42,925.74 tonnes, compared with 58,860.98 tonnes in the same period last year. Yet, on a positive note, May 2025 exports rose 11.26% year-on-year and 17.68% month-on-month, indicating some revival in overseas demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.37% to 5,190, while prices gained 135 rupees. Immediate support lies at 19,230, with further downside potential to 19,100, whereas resistance is placed at 19,470, and a breakout above could push prices towards 19,580.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19100-19580.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19397.6 Rupees dropped by -0.36 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views