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Gold

Gold prices surged by 2.69% to settle at 1,24,629, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and growing expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and announced new export controls, sparking renewed geopolitical uncertainty. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of a 25-bps Fed rate cut at the upcoming October 29 meeting further supported bullion. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,900, citing robust ETF inflows and strong central bank buying. On the physical front, Indian demand remained firm despite record prices, with dealers quoting premiums up to $15 per ounce, compared to $9 last week, ahead of key festive demand. In contrast, Chinese buying remained weak post-holiday amid high prices, with discounts of $48–$60 per ounce offered to stimulate demand. Swiss customs data showed gold exports to China jumped 254% in August to 35 tons, while shipments to India also rose, offsetting reduced flows to the U.S. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped by 5.33% to 15,705 lots while prices advanced 3,265. Support for Gold is seen at 1,23,470, below which prices could test 1,22,310, while resistance is placed at 1,25,320, and a break above this may push prices toward 1,26,010 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 122310-126010.

* Gold rose record high amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

* U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods to the United States.

* Markets are pricing in a near-certain chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October followed by a similar reduction in December.

Silver

Silver prices soared 5.58% to settle at 1,54,645, marking a new all-time high, supported by robust safe-haven demand amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, global political instability, and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. The rally gained momentum after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions, though later signaled a willingness to negotiate with China. Broader geopolitical uncertainties, including the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, political turmoil in France, and leadership instability in Japan, further fueled investor demand for precious metals. Expectations of consecutive 25-bps Fed rate cuts this year and tightening physical silver supply in London added to the bullish sentiment. Silver’s dual demand from both industrial and investment sectors—particularly for renewable energy applications—has kept consumption high, with a supply deficit projected for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. Silver ETPs saw strong inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, pushing global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, their highest since early 2021. Indian retail investment demand rose 7% year-on-year, reflecting strong price expectations. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped sharply by 17.49% to 23,705 lots while prices jumped 8,179. Support is now placed at 1,50,135, below which prices may test 1,45,620, while resistance is seen at 1,57,130; a break above could lift prices toward 1,59,610 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 145620-159610.

* Silver hits record high as US-China trade tensions, political risks, and Fed cut hopes boost demand

* Goldman Sachs said that silver prices were expected to rise in the medium term due to private investment flows.

* Goldman Sachs warned of heightened near-term volatility and downside risks compared to gold.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose 1.09% to settle at 5,303, supported by improving sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance adopted a softer tone toward China, raising hopes for eased trade tensions despite the planned 100% tariffs and export controls set for November 1. Trump’s remarks that the U.S. could “be fine with China” offered relief to markets, while his comments about supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles added geopolitical risk to global oil supply. However, gains were limited by concerns over rising output as OPEC and its allies increased production by 630,000 barrels per day in September, raising fears of a potential supply glut later this year. China’s crude oil imports also declined 4.5% in September to 47.25 million tonnes, signaling soft demand. Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels to 416.5 million, exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate stocks also climbed. Refinery runs dropped by 308,000 barrels per day, and utilization rates slipped to 91.4%. OPEC maintained its robust demand outlook for 2025–26, but the group’s faster-than-expected supply increase could result in a smaller market deficit of 50,000 barrels per day in 2026, down sharply from earlier estimates. Technically, crude oil is under short covering as open interest fell by 25.04% to 9,880 lots while prices gained 57. Support is seen at 5,258, below which prices may test 5,214, while resistance is at 5,346, and a move above could push prices toward 5,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5214-5390.

* Crude oil climbed as hopes for eased US–China trade tensions lifted sentiment.

* OPEC left its global oil demand forecasts unchanged for this year and next, signaling steady consumption growth

* OPEC+ projected a much smaller supply deficit for 2026 as OPEC+ accelerates its output increases.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher by 0.33% to settle at 276.5, supported by mild short covering amid ample storage levels and subdued near-term demand expectations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) build in gas inventories for the week ending October 3, above market expectations of 77 bcf and last year’s 78 bcf. Total storage now stands at 3,641 bcf—23 bcf higher than last year and 157 bcf above the five-year average—indicating comfortable supply ahead of winter. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from September’s 107.4 bcfd and a record 108 bcfd in August. Despite the decline, output remains robust, supported by high injection rates earlier this year. Weather forecasts show mostly warmer-than-normal conditions through October 25, which should keep heating demand muted. LSEG projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, to ease slightly next week before rebounding in the following week. Meanwhile, LNG feed gas flows averaged 16.1 bcfd in early October, nearing record highs, reflecting strong export activity. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 2.56% to 37,537 lots while prices gained 0.9. Natural gas has immediate support at 270.7, below which prices could test 265, whereas resistance is seen at 280.6; a sustained move above this level may push prices toward 284.8 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265-284.8.

* Natural gas dropped on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mild weather.

* Data showed an 80 bcf build in natural gas storage for the week ending October 3, above market expectations of 77 bcf

* There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 1.01% to settle at 264.15, tracking LME prices that climbed above $2,750 per tonne in October — the highest level in over three years — amid tightening supply and strong speculative interest. Prices were supported by China’s decision to curb base metal output growth to just 1.5% annually for 2025–2026, compared with the earlier 5% target, reinforcing Beijing’s aluminium output cap of 45 million tons. The move comes as part of China’s effort to manage overcapacity and control deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating ore quality, adding to global supply concerns. On the demand side, rising investment in data centers, which consume large amounts of aluminium, and stronger Chinese manufacturing PMI data boosted sentiment. Speculative positioning on the LME showed the largest net long since mid-2024, while on-warrant stocks dropped 15% in a month to 398,775 tons, highlighting robust physical demand. The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global aluminium deficit of 985,300 tons in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting tight market conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 5.51% to 3,564 while prices gained 2.65. Aluminium has immediate support at 262 and 259.7, whereas resistance is placed at 265.7; a breakout above could push prices toward 267.1 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 259.7-267.1.

* Aluminium rose tracking LME prices past $2,750 per tonne in October, the highest in over three years, amid tight supply.

* Chinese authorities cut their annual output growth target for base metals to an average of 1.5% annually for 2025 and 2026, compared to the 5% target previously.

* China exported 521,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in September, down from August's 534,000 tonnes.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.81% to settle at 294.25, supported by easing trade tensions between the US and China and tightening supply conditions in the physical market. LME-registered zinc inventories dropped sharply to 37,475 tons, down nearly 70% since mid-July and at their lowest since March 2023, driving the premium for the cash contract over the three-month forward to a three-year high of $100 per ton. However, rising inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, which have more than doubled to 106,950 tons since July, partially offset supply concerns. Production trends showed mixed signals. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a 6.3% rise in mined zinc output in H1 2025 but a 2% drop in refined output due to refining bottlenecks and smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and China. Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans a 6.6% production cut, while Ivanhoe Mines posted record zinc output of 57,200 tons in Q3. Meanwhile, Peru’s Antamina mine expects a 67% annual output surge to 450,000 tons. The global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 30,200 tons in July versus a 21,100-ton deficit in June, with a cumulative surplus of 72,000 tons in the first seven months of 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest fell by 0.28% to 3,241 while prices rose 2.35. Zinc has immediate support at 292.4 and 290.6, while resistance is seen at 296.2, with a potential test of 298.2 on a breakout above.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 290.6-298.2.

* Zinc rose amid hopes of easing trade tensions between the United States and China.

* Focus on LME zinc stocks at 37,475 tons, down 70% since mid-July to lowest since Mar 2023.

* Zinc supply worries lift LME cash premium to $100/T, highest in three years.

Copper

Copper prices surged 3.56% to settle at 1003.5, rebounding sharply after recent losses, as US President Donald Trump signaled optimism over trade negotiations with China, easing fears of a prolonged trade war. The rebound followed a steep 4% drop on Friday after Trump’s tariff threats on Chinese goods. Supply constraints continued to support prices, with disruptions in major producing countries like Chile and Indonesia limiting output—Codelco reported its lowest monthly production in over two decades, while Indonesia’s Grasberg mine remained under pressure following a fatal accident. Global inventories across LME, SHFE, and Comex stand at around 556,000 tons, with nearly half concentrated in Comex, indicating localized surplus in the US. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the refined copper market showed a surplus of 57,000 tons in July, compared with a 14,000-ton deficit in June. For the first seven months of the year, the market recorded a 101,000-ton surplus, narrower than the 401,000-ton surplus last year. The ICSG projects a surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 followed by a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026. Meanwhile, China’s September copper concentrate imports dropped 6.2% to 2.59 million tons due to reduced exports from Indonesia, though overall imports in 2024 are still up 7.7% year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering with open interest down by 8.27% to 6,590. Copper has support at 963.3, below which it may test 923.1, while resistance is at 1026.3, and a break above could push prices toward 1049.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 923.1-1049.1.

* Copper jumped after US President Donald Trump said that trade relations with China “will all be fine”

* China's imports of copper rose 14.1 % from month ago to 485,000 tonnes in September.

* ShFE copper stocks are at just under 110,000 tons, the highest since April 25 but down almost 60% from February.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday surged by 5.99% to settle at 13,560 as heavy rainfall in key growing regions caused notable crop damage. Reports from Nanded indicate that around 15% of the turmeric crop has been affected by excessive rains, tightening supply sentiment in the market. However, the upside remains capped due to an increase in acreage supported by favorable monsoon conditions. The IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in parts of South India during September has raised further concerns for growers. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and no fresh arrivals have been seen recently, while low inflows and cautious selling continue to lend firmness to prices. On the production front, dry weather has facilitated timely planting, and preliminary data suggests a 15–20% increase in turmeric acreage for the 2024–25 season, totaling 3.30 lakh hectares compared with 3 lakh hectares last year. Strong buyer interest persists at the Duggirala market, where new crop arrivals are fetching premiums over older stock due to superior quality. Turmeric exports during April–July 2025 rose 2.29% to 63,020.23 tonnes, while July exports grew 9.31% month-on-month despite a marginal 0.27% yearly dip. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 13.42% to 10,525 contracts as prices gained 766. Support is seen at 12,956, and a break below may test 12,350, while resistance is positioned at 13,864–14,166, suggesting continued bullish momentum if prices sustain above current levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12350-14166.

* Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* While upside capped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12750.35 Rupees gained by 0.4 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday edged lower by 0.23% to settle at 19,125 as weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season weighed on market sentiment. Despite support from the GST Council’s decision to reduce the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG-related demand and exports, overall trade activity remained subdued. Comfortable domestic supplies and muted overseas buying kept pressure on prices. Farmers are reportedly holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season end, leaving an estimated carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is anticipated to remain steady compared to last year, supported by favorable crop conditions and good sowing. However, overall national output is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is estimated at 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during April–July 2025 fell 19.81% to 73,026.35 tonnes compared to 91,070.02 tonnes last year.  Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling as open interest rose 18.36% to 2,592 lots, indicating new short positions. Support is seen at 19,070, and a break below may test 18,990, while resistance lies at 19,200–19,250, where sustained strength could trigger short covering.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18990-19250.

* Jeera prices dropped flat due to weak export demand

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18954.25 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.

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