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Gold

Gold yesterday settled higher by 1.26% at 116,344, supported by a weaker dollar and increased expectations of further US rate cuts. The latest US PCE inflation data aligned with forecasts, reinforcing market bets that the Federal Reserve may continue its policy easing path later this year. Traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and around 65% for an additional cut in December. Attention now turns to upcoming US economic indicators such as job openings, private payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payrolls, along with concerns over a potential US government shutdown. On the trade front, new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump targeting imported drugs, trucks, and furniture, effective October 1, have added fresh uncertainty to the economic outlook. Meanwhile, global physical gold flows remain mixed. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell sharply by 39.11% in August to 26.746 metric tons from 43.923 tons in July, signaling weakened demand amid discounts widening to $31–$71 per ounce. However, premiums in India held firm at up to $7 per ounce, the highest since November 2024, while steady demand was seen across other Asian hubs. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest rising by 1.52% to 14,384 contracts. Gold is now finding support at 115,465, below which it may test 114,585, while resistance is seen at 116,860, with potential to move towards 117,375 on sustained strength.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 114585-117375.

* Gold climbed above $3,800 and 1,16,000 on MCX, driven by a weaker dollar and growing expectations of further US rate cuts.

* Markets are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in October and about a 65% probability of an additional move in December.

* US PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve could continue easing policy later this year.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled higher by 0.85% at 1,43,099 as the dollar weakened amid heightened risks of a potential US government shutdown. Caution prevailed among investors ahead of key US economic releases this week, while Friday’s PCE data showed inflation pressures remained steady, reinforcing expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Markets are currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and around 65% odds of another in December, which continues to support bullion. On the fundamental front, silver demand remains well supported by robust industrial consumption, particularly from solar, electric vehicles, and electronics. Industrial use has exceeded 700 Moz and continues to rise. Supply, however, remains constrained, as silver is largely produced as a byproduct of other metals, with global mine output in 2025 estimated at 844 Moz, insufficient to offset the persistent structural deficit. The Silver Institute projects a fifth consecutive annual shortfall this year, with demand expected to exceed supply by more than 100 Moz. Investment activity also paints a bullish outlook. Silver ETP inflows hit 95 Moz in the first half of 2025, pushing global holdings to 1.13 Boz, close to record highs. Retail demand remains mixed, with Europe recovering from a low base and Indian demand rising 7% YoY, reflecting firm price expectations. Technically, silver is under fresh buying with open interest surging 13.53% to 19,373 contracts. Immediate support lies at 1,41,840, below which prices may test 1,40,590, while resistance is seen at 1,44,260, with a breakout opening the path towards 1,45,430.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 140590-145430.

* Silver rose to cross 1,44,000 on MCX to record high while Silver$ above $46.5, reaching a new 14-year peak.

* Dollar weakness fuels investor interest amid US shutdown risks

* Strong demand and supply deficits support higher silver prices

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices fell sharply by -3.82% to settle at 5610, pressured by rising supply expectations after OPEC+ signaled another production hike in November and Iraq resumed exports from its Kurdistan region through Turkey for the first time in over two years. OPEC+ is expected to approve at least a 137,000 bpd production increase, though the group continues to underproduce by nearly 500,000 bpd compared to its targets, muting fears of oversupply. Meanwhile, speculative activity turned bearish as money managers shifted to net short positions in U.S. crude futures and options, highlighting weaker sentiment. On the inventory front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported mixed trends. Crude stocks dropped by 607,000 barrels against expectations of a build, while Cushing hub inventories rose modestly by 177,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.1 million barrels, and distillates fell by 1.7 million barrels, both exceeding expectations of smaller draws, indicating stronger-than-expected demand. Refinery runs increased slightly, though utilization rates eased to 93%. Net U.S. crude imports surged by 1.6 million bpd, providing additional supply-side pressure. Despite these developments, OPEC maintained its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025, projecting robust economic growth and a steady consumption trend.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling -1.6% to 10,579 while prices declined by 223 rupees. Immediate support is seen at 5538, with further downside possible to 5466, while resistance is pegged at 5749, and a break above could push prices toward 5888.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5466-5888.

* Crude oil prices fell as OPEC+ plans another increase to output in November

* OPEC+ expected to confirm an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November

* Kurdistan crude oil flows to Turkey resume after 2-1/2 year halt

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices gained 2.51% to settle at 290.2, supported by forecasts of higher demand over the next two weeks. However, the upside remained capped due to rising daily output and ample storage levels. In Canada, producers have started cutting output aggressively after a supply glut pushed Alberta’s AECO hub prices into record negative territory, trading as low as minus 18 cents this week before averaging minus 5 cents. Meanwhile, U.S. drilling activity showed a slight decline, with the natural gas rig count falling by one to 117. Production trends remained mixed, with average U.S. output in the Lower 48 states easing to 107.5 bcfd so far in September from a record 108.3 bcfd in August, though daily production rebounded to a three-week high of 108.4 bcfd. Record output earlier this year allowed storage injections to remain robust, with inventories now 6% above the five-year average. The latest EIA data showed a 75 bcf storage build for the week ending September 19. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected both U.S. natural gas output and demand to reach record highs in 2025 at 106.6 bcfd and 91.5 bcfd, respectively, before slightly easing in 2026. LNG exports are also forecast to rise steadily, reaching 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest dropping -10.8% to 23,830 as prices gained 7.1 rupees. Support is now placed at 281.7 and below at 273.2, while resistance lies at 296, and a break higher could take prices toward 301.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 273.2-301.8.

* Natural gas gained amid forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* However upside seen limited on an increase in daily output, ample amounts of fuel in storage.

* Canadian natgas producers cut output amid record low prices

Copper

Copper prices climbed 2.04% to settle at 958.7, supported by ongoing supply disruptions across major producing regions. Freeport-McMoRan’s force majeure at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, which accounts for 3% of global supply, has tightened the market outlook, with the company warning that full output recovery is unlikely before 2027. Hudbay Minerals’ suspension of Peru’s Constancia mine operations amid protests added further supply stress. Reflecting demand trends, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.6%, while the Yangshan premium stabilized at $53 per ton, a one-month low. On the outlook side, Goldman Sachs trimmed its global copper mine supply forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing disruptions at Grasberg, estimating losses of 250,000–260,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026. Citi responded by raising its near-term copper price forecasts to $10,500 per ton, projecting further gains to $12,000 in 2026 and possibly $14,000 amid expectations of a market deficit of 400 kilotons. Meanwhile, LME stocks surged 56% over three months, while China’s copper production fell 5% in early September, partly offsetting Chile’s production gains from Codelco and Escondida. According to ICSG, the global refined copper market recorded a 57,000-ton surplus in July versus a 14,000-ton deficit in June, while the year-to-date surplus narrowed to 101,000 tons compared with 401,000 tons a year earlier.  Technically, copper is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.61% to 7,401 as prices gained 19.15 rupees. Support lies at 947.3, with further weakness toward 935.8, while resistance is seen at 966.1 and above that at 973.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 935.8-973.4.

* Copper rallied as Freeport-McMoRan declares force majeure at Grasberg mine

* Hudbay Minerals suspends Constancia mine operations amid local protests

* Supply disruptions tighten market, supporting higher prices for smelters

Zinc

Zinc prices rose 1.6% to settle at 286.35, supported by tightening supply conditions in China and broader global market dynamics. The European Commission’s plan to impose steep tariffs of 25%–50% on Chinese steel and related products boosted sentiment, as the move is expected to ease competitive pressure on European producers. Meanwhile, LME zinc stocks fell to 48,825 tons, the lowest since May 23, reflecting an 80% slump this year. This decline, combined with cash LME zinc’s premium to the three-month contract climbing to $51 per ton—its highest since October last year—highlighted tightening spot availability. On the production side, China’s August zinc output reached its highest monthly level since early 2024, though September production is projected to dip slightly by 16,400 mt to 609,800 mt. Smelter restarts in South China earlier this year supported capacity expansion, but risks of cuts remain amid oversupply and weather-related disruptions. Heavy rains have already affected operations at some smelters, while global supply has also been pressured by Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine’s 20% Q1 output drop and Nyrstar’s 25% annual cut.  The global zinc market swung to a 30,200-ton surplus in July from a 21,100-ton deficit in June, with cumulative surpluses of 72,000 tons in the first seven months of 2025, down from 185,000 tons a year earlier, ILZSG data showed. Technically, zinc is under short covering, with open interest easing 0.28% to 3,261 as prices gained 4.5 rupees. Support is at 283.1, with a break lower exposing 279.8, while resistance is at 288.4, above which levels of 290.4 could be tested.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 279.8-290.4.

* Zinc prices gained amid tightening supply conditions in China.

* LME zinc stocks fell their lowest since May 23 at 48,825 tons, data showed, having slumped 80% this year.

* The European Commission plans to impose steep tariffs—ranging from 25% to 50%—on Chinese steel imports and related products in the coming weeks.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 1.02% to settle at 257.8, supported by persistent supply-side risks despite uneven demand trends. In North America, consumption fell 4.4% year-on-year in H1 2025 due to weaker exports and tariff pressures, while China’s production growth faces limits from its annual cap of 45 million tons. Output reached 44 million tons in April, with capacity estimated at 45.69 million tons in June, suggesting limited room for further expansion. Supply concerns were heightened as Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses, with ore supply risks threatening major producer Emirates Global Aluminium. On the stock front, primary aluminium inventories in the LME plunged nearly 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 in early September, reflecting strong speculative and physical demand. According to IAI data, global primary aluminium output in August rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.277 million tonnes, while WBMS figures showed a global deficit of 119,900 tonnes in July. Between January–July 2025, cumulative deficit widened to 985,300 tonnes as consumption outpaced production. China’s aluminium trade flows remained firm, with exports of unwrought aluminium and products rising to 542,000 tonnes in July, while August imports grew 12.9% year-on-year to 320,000 tonnes. For January–August, total imports rose 2.7% year-on-year to 2.65 million tonnes, underlining sustained demand. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying, with open interest climbing 3.82% to 4,186 as prices gained 2.6 rupees. Support is at 256.1, with further downside at 254.2, while resistance is seen at 259.3, above which 260.6 could be tested.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.2-260.6.

* Aluminium gained due to persistent threats to supply.

* Chinese output is expected to slow due to the country’s annual limit of 45 million tons, capping supply growth.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 2.4% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled higher by 0.84% at 12,418, supported by reports of crop damage in major growing regions following heavy rainfall. In Nanded, nearly 15% of the turmeric crop area was adversely impacted, adding firmness to market sentiment. However, upside remained capped amid expectations of increased acreage this season due to favorable sowing conditions and higher profitability compared to other crops. The IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal September rainfall in parts of South India has also raised concerns among growers. Market supplies remain tight as turmeric stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals in recent days. On the production front, dry weather is aiding timely planting, with preliminary estimates suggesting acreage could rise by 15–20%. At Duggirala, new crop arrivals continue to attract strong buyer interest, consistently fetching higher prices over older stock due to superior quality. Trading activity remains robust, with daily volumes ranging from 1,000 to 1,200 bags, and nearly 50–55% of the total new crop already traded. On the export front, shipments during Apr–July 2025 rose by 2.29% to 63,020.23 tonnes compared to the same period last year. July exports stood at 15,070.67 tonnes, nearly flat year-on-year but up 9.31% from June. In Nizamabad, spot prices firmed by 1.06% to 12,949.4. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 4.07% to 14,245 contracts. Support is placed at 12,246, with a break below exposing 12,072 levels, while resistance is seen at 12,692, above which prices may test 12,964.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12072-12964.

* Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* While upside capped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12949.4 Rupees gained by 1.06 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled lower by -0.52% at 19,010, pressured by weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Market participants attributed the decline to sluggish foreign buying interest and comfortable supplies, with existing stocks sufficient to meet current demand. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production prospects remain steady, with estimates suggesting 90–92 lakh bags of cumin this year compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, aided by favorable sowing and crop conditions. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is likely to produce 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, geopolitical disruptions have tightened supplies from key producers such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, but India’s export demand remains muted. In China, adverse weather has cut output estimates to 70–80 thousand tons, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected to produce 9–12 thousand tons each. On the export front, shipments during Apr–July 2025 dropped sharply by 19.81% to 73,026.35 tonnes compared to 91,070.02 tonnes last year. July exports fell 20.83% year-on-year to 13,778.60 tonnes and declined 15.58% month-on-month from June levels, reflecting weak overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest easing 0.17% to 3,531 contracts. Immediate support lies at 18,940, below which prices may test 18,850, while resistance is seen at 19,110, with potential to retest 19,190 on strength.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18850-19190.

* Jeera settled down due to weak domestic and export demand.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19162.25 Rupees gained by 1.5 percent.

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