Higher Cotton Imports Boost India`s Carry-Forward Stocks by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India’s cotton carry-forward stocks for the 2026-27 season are projected to rise by around 42% to over 85 lakh bales, driven by a sharp increase in imports following the government's duty exemption on cotton imports. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) expects total imports in the current 2025-26 season to reach 60-65 lakh bales, significantly above earlier estimates. Textile mills continue to prefer imported cotton due to better yarn realization and premium pricing despite similar costs compared to domestic cotton. The higher imports are expected to improve cotton availability and strengthen opening stocks for the next season.
Key Highlights
- India’s 2026-27 cotton carry-forward stocks are projected to rise 42% to over 85 lakh bales.
- Cotton imports may increase to 60-65 lakh bales after the government removed import duty.
- Imports reached 43.5 lakh bales by end-May, up 32% from a year earlier.
- Textile mills prefer imported cotton due to higher yarn realization and market premiums.
- Closing stocks for 2025-26 are estimated at 85.59 lakh bales, up about 25 lakh bales year-on-year.
India's cotton market is expected to enter the 2026-27 season with significantly higher carry-forward stocks, supported by a surge in imports after the government exempted import duty on cotton. The move was aimed at ensuring adequate availability of quality cotton for the textile industry and has encouraged traders and mills to increase overseas purchases.
According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), cotton imports during the 2025-26 marketing season are now expected to reach 60-65 lakh bales of 170 kg each, substantially higher than the earlier estimate of 47 lakh bales. Imports totaling 43.5 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports by the end of May, representing a nearly 32% increase compared to the same period last year. Market participants anticipate an additional 15 lakh bales of imports following the recent duty exemption.
The increase in imports is expected to lift India's carry-forward stocks at the beginning of the 2026-27 season in October to 85.59 lakh bales, around 42% higher than the previous season's estimated closing stock of 60 lakh bales. CAI has maintained its cotton production estimate for 2025-26 at 334 lakh bales, while cotton pressing reached 322.35 lakh bales by the end of May. Exports for the season are estimated at 10 lakh bales.
Textile mills continue to show a strong preference for imported cotton despite near parity in domestic and international prices. Imported cotton provides approximately 4% higher yarn realization and yarn produced from imported fiber commands a premium of nearly ?7 per kilogram in the market. These advantages have made imported cotton more attractive for spinning mills.
As of the end of May, total cotton stocks in the country were estimated at 191.44 lakh bales, with mills holding around 82 lakh bales and the remainder held by the Cotton Corporation of India, traders, ginners, and multinational companies.
Higher cotton imports are expected to significantly strengthen India's cotton availability, boost carry-forward stocks, and support the textile sector's demand for quality raw material in the upcoming season.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
