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Gold

Gold prices climbed 0.69% to settle at 99,119, as investors turned their attention to key macroeconomic and geopolitical events this week. The market is bracing for outcomes from the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady, markets are pricing in a possible rate cut in September, providing underlying support to bullion. The broader trade environment also remains volatile, with a Friday deadline looming for other U.S. trading partners to reach agreements following the recently finalized U.S.-EU deal imposing 15% tariffs on most European goods. From the supply side, Swiss gold exports surged 44% in June, mainly to the UK, reaching the highest monthly level since March. London vault holdings rose 177.8 tons to 8,776 tons, marking the highest inventory since August 2023. In contrast, China’s gold imports fell for a second consecutive month in June to just 63 metric tons, down 36.3% from May, amid subdued demand. Retail buying across key Asian markets also weakened due to high prices, with Indian dealers offering discounts of up to $15/oz and similar trends observed in China, Hong Kong, and Japan. Technically, gold is under fresh buying pressure with open interest rising 12.38% to 12,029. Support lies at 98,615 and 98,105, while resistance is seen at 99,460 and 99,795 on further gains.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 98105-99795.

* Gold prices gained ahead of key U.S.-China trade talks and Fed decision.

* U.S.-EU trade deal imposes 15% tariffs; more trade deadlines loom Friday.

* China’s gold imports dropped 36.3% in June, hitting lowest since January.

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 0.62% at 1,13,753 amid short covering, driven by renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade negotiations. Market sentiment is being shaped by expectations of a 90-day extension to the August 12 tariff pause, alongside ongoing trade discussions with other major partners like Canada and South Korea. Additionally, a weaker-than-expected U.S. job openings report and a narrower trade deficit have added support to the precious metal. Retail investment demand for silver remains strong globally. In India, investment grew 7% YoY in the first half of 2025, buoyed by firm price expectations. Europe also witnessed a recovery, albeit from a lower base, and benefited from reduced secondary market liquidations. Silver-backed Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) have seen impressive net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, surpassing the total for all of 2024. Global ETP holdings now stand at 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below the all-time peak of February 2021, reflecting strong investor sentiment. The supply-demand backdrop continues to favor silver, with a fifth consecutive annual deficit expected in 2025. Industrial fabrication is projected to grow 3% and surpass 700 million ounces for the first time, supported by structural demand from green economy sectors. Technically, silver is undergoing short covering, as open interest dropped 3.02% to 15,641 while prices rose 700. Immediate support is seen at 1,12,940 and 1,12,130, with resistance at 1,14,320 and 1,14,890 if momentum continues.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 112130-114890.

* Silver rises on short covering ahead of possible U.S.-China tariff pause extension.

* Markets expect 90-day delay to August 12 tariff deadline amid ongoing trade talks.

* U.S. job openings fell to 7.437 million in June, missing expectations.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices surged 3.34% to settle at 5,974, supported by easing trade tensions and geopolitical factors. Optimism grew as top U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm to defuse longstanding trade disputes, offering hope for improved global economic conditions. Additional price support came from President Trump’s renewed pressure on Russia over the Ukraine conflict, signaling potential supply risks. On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories declined sharply by 3.169 million barrels for the week ended July 18, surpassing expectations of a 1.6 million-barrel drop, according to EIA data. However, Cushing, Oklahoma stockpiles rose by 455,000 barrels. Among refined fuels, gasoline inventories fell by 1.738 million barrels while distillate stocks increased by 2.931 million barrels, reflecting a mixed downstream picture. The EIA lowered its U.S. oil production forecast for 2025 to 13.37 million bpd from 13.42 million, citing lower oil prices and reduced drilling activity. Despite this, the output still marks a record high and remains steady for 2026. Market participants are also watching OPEC+, which is expected to maintain current output plans in the upcoming meeting. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying momentum, confirmed by a 7.57% rise in open interest to 11,197, alongside a 193 price increase. Immediate support lies at 5,828, with a break below leading to 5,682. On the upside, resistance is seen at 6,072, and a move above could push prices toward 6,170, reinforcing bullish momentum in the short term.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5682-6170.

* Crude oil prices edged up amid concerns about tighter global oil supplies

* OPEC+ panel unlikely to change existing output hike plans in upcoming meeting.

* U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels, exceeding expectations.

Natural gas 

Natural gas prices rose by 2.09% to settle at 273.3, driven by bullish weather forecasts and geopolitical developments. Meteorologists anticipate persistent August heat across key U.S. regions like the Southeast and Midwest, fueling higher air conditioning use and lifting power sector gas consumption. Heightened geopolitical tensions also supported sentiment, with President Trump accelerating his Ukraine ceasefire deadline for Russia, raising the threat of tighter sanctions on Russian energy. Despite rising prices, supply remains robust. Average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states reached 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July—surpassing the previous record set in June. According to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, dry gas production is expected to rise to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026, both record highs. Domestic gas demand is also forecasted to increase to 91.3 bcfd in 2025, following 2024’s record of 90.5 bcfd. LNG exports are set to grow, reaching 14.6 bcfd in 2025 and 16.0 bcfd in 2026, further tightening the supply-demand balance. U.S. utilities injected 23 bcf into storage in the week ending July 18, slightly below expectations, bringing total inventories to 3.075 trillion cubic feet—4.7% lower than a year ago but 5.9% above the 5-year average.Technically, the market saw short   as open interest fell by 10.56% to 32,008. Support lies at 269.6, with further downside at 265.8. Resistance is seen at 277.6, with a break above opening the path to 281.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 265.8-281.8.

* Natural gas prices rose on hotter August forecasts driving cooling demand.

* U.S. Lower 48 gas output averaged 107.2 bcfd in July, a new high.

* Gas inventories remain 6% above seasonal norms, signaling ongoing oversupply.

Copper 

Copper prices rose by 0.36% to settle at 899.6, supported by short covering ahead of the U.S. plan to impose a 50% import tariff on copper starting August 1. Traders remain cautious as the final product list is yet to be detailed. Simultaneous U.S. trade talks with Chile and China are also closely monitored for further cues. Broader global trade concerns persist following the US-EU agreement that retained steep tariffs on steel and aluminium. On the inventory front, the London Metal Exchange reported copper stockpiles reaching a one-and-a-half-month high at 128,475 mt, indicating a supply build-up. Conversely, SHFE copper inventories fell by 13.17% to a seven-month low of 73,423 mt, while COMEX inventories surged to a seven-year high at 248,635 mt. Global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 97,000 mt in May, shifting from an 80,000 mt deficit in April, according to ICSG data. Meanwhile, Glencore’s announcement to shut its last two Mount Isa copper mines and suspend operations at Katanga and Mopani for 18 months will pull out nearly 400,000 mt of copper cathode from the market—around 12% of global supply. Despite this, Chile’s Codelco and Antofagasta reported a 9% and 11% production increase respectively in H1 2025. Technically, copper saw fresh buying as open interest rose 2.33% to 7,414. Support lies at 895.9, with further downside to 892.1, while resistance is expected at 902.3; a breakout above could take prices to 904.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 892.1-904.9.

* Copper gains on short covering ahead of potential 50% U.S. import tariff

* SHFE copper inventories dropped 13.17% to 73,423 mt, a 7-month low

* Glencore halts Katanga and Mopani mines, removing 400,000 tonnes from market.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 0.54% to settle at 268.3, supported by optimism around China’s plans to stabilise key industrial sectors such as machinery, autos, and electrical equipment. These initiatives are expected to stimulate demand, even as Chinese buyers remain cautious, limiting purchases to immediate requirements due to still-sluggish consumption. Additionally, investor sentiment was buoyed by hopes for a trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China, with top-level meetings scheduled in Stockholm. On the supply side, tightness persists as Chinese smelters face mounting pressure to curb production, driven by capacity oversupply and environmental constraints. Heavy rainfall disrupted operations at some smelters in South China, adding to supply-side worries. SHFE-monitored zinc inventories, however, increased by 8.8% from the previous week, reflecting a mixed supply-demand dynamic. Meanwhile, refined zinc production in China rose 6% MoM and 7% YoY in June, with year-to-date output up 1.5%—though slightly under expectations. Alloy production declined slightly, suggesting softness in downstream sectors. Global supply disruptions are also contributing to a tighter market. Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine reported a 20% YoY drop in Q1 output, and Australia’s Nyrstar plans to reduce its 2025 zinc output by 25% due to uncompetitive treatment charges and ore shortages. Technically, the zinc market saw fresh buying interest with a 4.4% rise in open interest to 3,821. Support is now at 266.5, below which prices may test 264.7, while resistance lies at 269.3; a breakout could push prices to 270.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 264.7-270.3.

* Zinc prices rose on China’s plans to boost machinery and auto sector growth.

* Chinese smelters face pressure to cut output as capacity outpaces demand.

* Heavy rains disrupt production at some South China zinc smelters.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower by 0.31% to close at 253.4 as market participants remained cautious ahead of anticipated developments in U.S.-China trade talks. Despite the mild decline, downside was limited due to optimism surrounding China's efforts to stabilize industrial growth and a broadly supportive demand outlook, particularly following Beijing’s approval of a CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project aimed at spurring infrastructure investment. Supply-side fundamentals remained tight. SHFE-monitored aluminium inventories increased by 6.4% over the week, yet China’s June aluminium production dipped 3.23% month-on-month. However, output remained elevated on a year-on-year basis, with June production up 3.4% at 3.81 million metric tons, and cumulative H1 2025 output rising 3.3% to 22.38 million tons. Export data reflected subdued overseas appetite—China’s June aluminium exports fell to 489,000 tons from May’s 547,000 tons, indicating a 5.1% year-to-date decline. In Japan, premiums for Q3 aluminium shipments dropped sharply by 41% to $108/ton, underscoring weak regional demand and plentiful supply. On the technical front, aluminium saw long liquidation with open interest falling 2.32% to 4,595 contracts. The price drop of 0.8 indicates some bearish sentiment, but strong underlying fundamentals limit further downside. Immediate support is at 252.7, below which prices could test 251.9. Resistance is seen at 254.3, and a breakout above may push prices toward 255.1 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.9-255.1.

* Aluminium dropped as participants in Chinese metals markets closely monitored progress in U.S.-China trade discussions.

* However downside seen limited amid the outlook of lower supply and improved demand from China.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.4% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.53% to settle at 12,972, supported by short covering after recent declines driven by expectations of increased acreage amid favorable monsoon conditions. Market arrivals rose modestly to 13,660 quintals from 11,940 in the previous session, indicating improved availability. However, the downside remains limited due to ongoing concerns about lower yields and crop quality, despite an estimated 10% rise in sown area to 3.30 lakh hectares for the 2024-25 season. Experts suggest that untimely rains and unfavorable climatic events could lead to a 10–15% drop in yields, especially in key growing areas like Nanded, where small rhizomes and crop rot have impacted overall productivity. Market activity remains strong, particularly at the Duggirala mandi, where new crop arrivals are fetching higher premiums due to better quality. Nearly 50–55% of the new crop has been traded so far, and arrivals are expected to continue through June, defying typical end-of-season slowdowns. On the export front, turmeric shipments surged by 8.37% during April–May 2025 to 34,162 tonnes, compared to 31,525 tonnes in the same period last year. In May alone, exports rose 10.28% YoY and 28.41% MoM, underscoring strong international demand. Technically, the market is in short covering mode, as open interest fell by 4.06% to 16,905 while prices increased by 68. Immediate support is at 12,826, with further downside seen at 12,682. Resistance is seen at 13,122 and 13,274.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12682-13274.

* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13908.75 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices rose by 0.75% to settle at 18,810, supported by short covering after recent declines triggered by subdued domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Traders attributed the earlier weakness to muted buying interest from both domestic processors and overseas buyers, as well as comfortable supply levels and adequate stock availability. Currently, around 20 lakh bags of jeera are still with farmers, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. Despite improved crop conditions and similar production levels to last year, estimated at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags previously, export demand remains sluggish. Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to produce 42–45 lakh and 48–50 lakh bags respectively. Global production in competing nations like China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan has also taken a hit due to adverse weather, with China’s expected output revised down to 70,000–80,000 tons. Jeera exports during April–May 2025 dropped by 27.07% year-on-year to 42,926 tonnes from 58,861 tonnes. However, on a monthly basis, May exports rose 11.26% YoY and 17.68% MoM, indicating some recovery in overseas interest. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by 3.7% to 5,538 as prices gained 140. Immediate support is seen at 18,670 and 18,530, while resistance is expected at 18,920 and 19,030 on further strength.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18530-19030.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19543.85 Rupees gained by 0.22 percent.

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