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Gold

Yesterday, gold prices slightly declined by 0.05%, settling at 72,367 rupees per 10 grams. This movement came as fresh US economic data reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. is back on a "disinflationary path," but emphasized the need for more data before cutting rates to ensure that recent weaker inflation readings accurately reflect the economy. In May, the Fed's preferred inflation measure remained flat, with the annual rate easing to 2.6%, still above the target but trending downward. Additionally, U.S. job openings increased in May after two months of declines, suggesting softening labor market conditions that could prompt rate cuts. Gold imports to China via Hong Kong fell by 38% in April compared to the previous month, totaling 34.6 metric tons, down from 55.8 tons in March. This decline marks a shift from the high consumption in the first quarter, which saw a 5.94% year-on-year increase, with 308.91 metric tons consumed. Indian gold demand also remained weak due to high prices and expectations of a potential import duty cut in the upcoming budget. Indian dealers offered discounts up to $9 an ounce over official domestic prices, while Japan, bullion was sold at par to $0.5 premiums, and in Singapore, gold was sold at par to $2.10 premiums, with similar pricing in Hong Kong. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, witnessing a 1.71% drop in open interest, settling at 13,980 contracts. Prices fell by 36 rupees, with gold now finding support at 72,245 rupees and potentially testing 72,115 rupees if it falls below this level. Resistance is expected at 72,495 rupees, with a move above potentially testing 72,615 rupees.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 72115-72615.
* Gold settled flat after fresh US economic data reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by Fed
* Fed's Powell says US on 'disinflationary path,' but more data needed before rate cuts
* Data showed U.S. job openings rose in May after two months of declines


Silver
Yesterday, silver settled down by -0.07% at 91961 as market focus shifted to the upcoming non-farm payrolls data. Recent data suggested a weakening labor market, fueling speculation about potential Fed interest rate cuts. The ADP report showed fewer private-sector jobs added in June than anticipated, while the Department of Labor reported a continuous rise in unemployment claims for the ninth consecutive week, reaching a two-year high. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted progress in managing inflation but emphasized the need for further data before cutting rates. Investors are keenly awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes and the nonfarm payrolls report for more insight into the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, first-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits increased, with the number of people on jobless rolls rising to a 2.5-year high, indicating a gradual cooling in the labor market. This easing labor market momentum, coupled with abating inflation pressures, keeps the Federal Reserve on track to potentially start cutting interest rates this year, with hopes of the easing cycle beginning in September. India's silver imports in the first four months of the year have already surpassed the total for all of 2023, driven by rising demand from the solar panel industry and investor interest in silver outperforming gold. Almost half of this year’s imports came from the UAE, benefiting from lower import duties. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.61% to settle at 22,834 while prices fell by 60 rupees. Silver is finding support at 91550, and a decline below this level could see a test of 91135. Resistance is likely at 92290, and a move above this level could push prices to test 92615.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 91135-92615.
* Silver settled flat as the market spotlight is now on non-farm payrolls data.
* The ADP report indicated fewer private-sector jobs added in June than forecasted
* Fed’s Williams said that the level of interest rates that’s neutral in its impact on the economy likely hasn’t risen much.


Crudeoil
Yesterday, crude oil prices increased by 1.05%, settling at 7,024 rupees per barrel, driven by a substantial drop in US inventories and an optimistic US fuel demand forecast. Weaker US economic data has fueled expectations for a September interest rate cut, boosting confidence in economic growth and energy consumption. OPEC's oil output rose for the second consecutive month in June due to increased production from Nigeria and Iran, countering voluntary supply cuts by other members and the broader OPEC+ alliance. OPEC pumped 26.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up 70,000 bpd from May, despite OPEC+ extending most output cuts until the end of 2025 to support the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates, and rising US production. Additionally, Hurricane Beryl, a category 5 storm, became the strongest early-season storm in the Atlantic, making landfall on Carriacou Island and heading toward Jamaica, which also supported oil prices. OPEC+ supply constraints and increased travel ahead of the US Independence Day holiday further bolstered prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude stocks fell by 12.2 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels in the week ending June 28, far exceeding expectations for a 680,000-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 345,000 barrels. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with a 31.85% increase in open interest, settling at 7,592 contracts. Prices rose by 73 rupees, with crude oil now finding support at 6,963 rupees and potentially testing 6,901 rupees if it falls below this level. Resistance is likely at 7,057 rupees, with a move above potentially testing 7,089 rupees.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6901-7089.
* Crude oil gains supported by a significant drop in US inventories reported last week and an optimistic US fuel demand forecast.
* US crude oil inventories fell by 12.157 million barrels in the week ending June 28, 2024.
* Gasoline stocks decreased by 2.214 million, exceeding the forecast of a 1 million draw.


Naturalgas
Yesterday, natural gas settled down by -2.75% at 197.9 due to rising output in July and an oversupply of gas in storage. Currently, gas stockpiles are about 19% above the normal level for this time of year. This price decline occurred despite expectations of a smaller-than-usual weekly storage build and forecasts of a continuing heat wave through mid-July. The intense heat is increasing the demand for power to keep air conditioners running, which in turn forces power generators to burn more gas than usual. According to financial data firm LSEG, gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to an average of 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. The U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to rise from 98.4 bcfd this week to 104.4 bcfd next week. However, gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen to 12.4 bcfd so far in July, primarily due to a decline in feedgas at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 2.71% to settle at 33,931 while prices fell by 5.6 rupees. Natural gas is finding support at 194.3, and a decline below this level could see a test of 190.6. Resistance is likely at 203.1, and a move above this level could push prices to test 208.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 190.6-208.2.
* Natural gas eased on a rise in output so far in July and the oversupply of gas still in storage.
* Gas stockpiles were now about 19% above normal for this time of year.
* Despite this, prices remained near a seven-week low due to increased production and oversupply



Copper
Yesterday, copper prices rose by 0.56%, closing at 868.15 rupees per kilogram, driven by renewed hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's moderately dovish remarks suggested that the U.S. central bank might commence its easing cycle later this year, boosting investor sentiment and demand prospects for metals. However, gains were limited by a bleak physical demand outlook from China, the top consumer of copper. China's prolonged property crisis and high prices have dampened demand, and the country's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months in June, with confidence hitting a four-year low. China's apparent copper demand grew by 2% in the first half of the year, but full-year demand is expected to contract by 0.5% due to a high second-half base effect. Furthermore, miner Freeport McMoran reported lower-than-expected sales for the second quarter due to delays in obtaining an export license for its Indonesian subsidiary. The global refined copper market showed a surplus of 13,000 metric tons in April, down from a 123,000 metric tons surplus in March, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). China's unwrought copper imports in May rose by 15.8% year-on-year to 514,000 metric tons, despite weak physical consumption, with imports up 17.4% from the previous month. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with a 1.04% increase in open interest, settling at 7,174 contracts. Prices rose by 4.85 rupees, with copper now finding support at 862.7 rupees per kilogram and potentially testing 857.2 rupees if it falls below this level. Resistance is expected at 871.7 rupees, with a move above potentially testing 875.2 rupees.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 857.2-875.2.
* Copper prices climbed with renewed hopes of U.S. rate
* Fed’s Powell struck a moderately dovish tone, suggesting that the U.S. central bank is more than likely to start its easing cycle later this year.
* China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months and confidence hit a four-year low in June.


Zinc
Yesterday, zinc settled up by 0.68% at 274.65 amid hopes of improved demand in China following recent price drops and concerns about supply. Sentiment was lifted by China's central bank reinforcing its easing monetary stance. However, gains were limited as China's industrial output slowed more than expected in May, adding to signs of poor industrial demand following the contractionary official manufacturing PMI in the world's top zinc consumer. The People's Bank of China remains committed to a supportive monetary stance and preventing exchange rate overshooting. Zinc concentrate imports in China decreased by 24% in the first four months of this year compared to the previous year, driven by a tightening raw materials market. The spot treatment charges for imported zinc concentrates have plummeted to $30-50 per ton, insufficient to cover processing costs for many Chinese smelters, who are increasingly turning to domestic sources. Globally, zinc mine production fell by 2% in 2022 and another 1% in 2023, with no recovery so far this year, as output slid another 3% year-on-year in the first quarter according to the ILZSG. LME stocks rebuilt from a depleted 30,475 tons to 223,225 tons over the course of 2023, and at a current 255,900, they are up another 15% since the start of January. The global zinc market surplus fell to 22,100 metric tons in April from 70,100 tons in March, according to the ILZSG. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest dropping by 6.09% to settle at 2886 while prices rose by 1.85 rupees. Zinc is getting support at 273.2, and a decline below this level could see a test of 271.5. Resistance is likely at 276.1, and a move above this level could push prices to test 277.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 271.5-277.3.
* Zinc gains amid hopes of improved demand in China following recent price drops and supply concerns.
* The global zinc market surplus fell to 22,100 metric tons in April from 70,100 tons in March.
* In China, zinc concentrate imports decreased by 24% in the first four months of this year compared to the previous year.


Aluminium
Yesterday, aluminium prices declined by 0.21%, closing at 232.9 rupees per kilogram, as signs of ample supply overshadowed muted demand. However, the downside was limited due to a positive sentiment from China's central bank reiterating its commitment to a supportive monetary policy stance to bolster economic stability. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2.0% compared to the previous week. The US Manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 51.7 in June 2024 from 51.3 in May, beating forecasts of 51, indicating some strength in the manufacturing sector. In contrast, China left its key benchmark lending rates unchanged, as Beijing's monetary easing efforts remain constrained by narrowing interest rate margins and a weakening currency. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose by 3.4% year on year to 6.1 million tons in May. China's aluminium production increased by 7.2% to 3.65 million tonnes in May from a year earlier, with a cumulative production of 17.89 million tonnes in the first five months of the year, up 7.1% from the same period last year. China's aluminium imports surged by 61.1% in May from a year earlier, driven by rising shipments from Russia, which has increased its exports to China following sanctions from Western countries. China imported 310,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminium and products last month. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with a 0.98% increase in open interest, settling at 4,226 contracts. Prices declined by 0.5 rupees, with aluminium now finding support at 232.1 rupees per kilogram and potentially testing 231.4 rupees if it falls below this level. Resistance is expected at 233.8 rupees, with a move above potentially testing 234.8 rupees.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 231.4-234.8.
* Aluminium dropped amid signs of ample supply magnified the pressure from muted demand.
* Global primary aluminium output rose 3.4% year on year to 6.1 million tons in May
* China aluminium production up 7.2 % to 3.65 mln tonnes in May


Cottoncandy
Cotton prices settled down by 0.49% at 58,430 rupees per candy, primarily due to profit booking after previous gains. These earlier gains were driven by delays in cotton shipments from the US and Brazil, which boosted demand for Indian cotton from mills in neighboring countries. Additionally, a firm trend in cottonseed prices has supported natural fiber prices even as the kharif 2024 sowing season has commenced in southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, following the onset of monsoon rains. There is an expectation that cotton acreage will increase in Telangana, where some chilli farmers may switch to cotton due to weak spice crop prices. Conversely, in North India, cotton acreage might drop by about 25% due to factors such as increased pest infestation in recent years and rising labor costs. The 2024/25 US cotton projections indicate higher beginning and ending stocks compared to the previous month, with projected production, domestic use, and exports remaining unchanged. The season average upland farm price has dropped by 4 cents from the May forecast to 70 cents per pound, following a decline in new-crop cotton futures. Globally, the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet shows increases in beginning stocks, production, and consumption, while world trade remains unchanged. Consequently, world ending stocks are projected to be 480,000 bales higher than in May, totaling 83.5 million. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by 0.54% to settle at 371, while prices decreased by 290 rupees. Currently, cotton candy has support at 58,380 rupees, with potential testing at 58,330 rupees if this support is breached. Resistance is likely at 58,490 rupees, with a move above this level potentially pushing prices to 58,550 rupees.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 58330-58550.
* Cotton dropped  on profit booking after prices gained amid delay in arrival of shipments from US, Brazil
* China's agriculture ministry raised its forecast for cotton imports in the 2023/24 crop year by 200,000 metric tons
* The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric
Yesterday, turmeric prices settled slightly lower by -0.06% at 16158, amid news of increased sowing activities. Despite this, the downside was limited as farmers held back stocks in anticipation of a further price rise. Turmeric sowing has reportedly doubled in the Erode region compared to last year, with Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh also seeing a 30-35% increase in sowing. Last year, turmeric was sown in about 3-3.25 lakh hectares across the country, and this year it is estimated to rise to 3.75-4 lakh hectares. The previous year saw low sowing and unfavorable weather conditions, resulting in an estimated production of 45-50 lakh bags of turmeric in 2024, with an outstanding stock of 35-38 lakh bags. Despite increased sowing this season, the upcoming turmeric crop is projected to be around 70-75 lakh bags, with no remaining stock from previous years. This could lead to a turmeric availability that is less than the consumption in 2025.Turmeric exports in April 2024 were around 14,109.09 tonnes, a decrease of 19.07% from March 2024 and a 27.98% drop from April 2023. However, turmeric imports saw a significant rise, with 3,588.11 tonnes imported in April 2024, up 192.36% from March 2024 and a 570.31% increase from April 2023. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 17243.65 Rupees, a drop of -0.96%. Technically, the turmeric market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by -0.1% to settle at 20235 while prices fell by 10 rupees. Currently, turmeric is finding support at 15966, and a decline below this level could see a test of 15772. Resistance is expected at 16336, and a move above this level could see prices testing 16512.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15772-16512.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid news of increased sowing.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year.
* Turmeric was sown in about 3/3.25 lakh hectares in the country last year, which is estimated to increase to 3.75/4 lakh hectares this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 17243.65 Rupees dropped by -0.96 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices settled up by 0.81% at 29,165 rupees per quintal, driven by robust domestic and export demand alongside tight global supplies. Farmers holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices also supported the market. However, expectations of higher production may weigh on prices moving forward. This season, jeera production is projected to be 30% higher at 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, thanks to a substantial increase in cultivation areas. In Gujarat, the sowing area surged by 104%, while in Rajasthan, it increased by 16%. Globally, jeera production has seen significant increases, particularly in China, where output soared to over 55-60 thousand tonnes from the previous 28-30 thousand tonnes. High prices last season have incentivized increased production in countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Turkey expects to produce 12-15 thousand tonnes, while Afghanistan's output could double, weather permitting. As these new supplies enter the market, cumin prices are likely to decline. Additionally, reduced export trade in cumin contributes to the price drop, indicating a shift in global market dynamics. In India, due to favorable prices last year, the sowing area in Mehsana, Banaskantha, and Patan of Gujarat increased by 30-35%, while in Rajasthan, areas like Jaisalmer, Barmer, Jodhpur, and Ajmer saw a 35% increase. Overall, production has doubled this year compared to last year due to increased sowing areas and favorable weather conditions. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 0.91% to settle at 2295 while prices rose by 235 rupees. Jeera is getting support at 28,800 rupees, with a potential test of 28,430 rupees below this level. Resistance is now likely at 29,490 rupees, with prices possibly testing 29,810 rupees above this level.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 28430-29810.
* Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* China's cumin output soared to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 28635.4 Rupees dropped by -0.36 percent.

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