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Gold

Gold yesterday settled higher by 0.38% at 121067 as softer U.S. labor market data strengthened expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Challenger job cuts tripled in October, marking the largest monthly jump in over two decades as companies cited weakening consumer demand. The data offset optimism from stronger ADP payrolls and heightened uncertainty over labor conditions, prompting markets to price in a 69% probability of a December quarter-point rate cut, up from 60% a day earlier. A weaker U.S. dollar further supported gold by enhancing its appeal for foreign investors, while ongoing uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown boosted safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak for a 12th consecutive month, with reserves inching up to 74.09 million fine troy ounces in October. Global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tonnes in Q3 — the highest quarterly level on record — driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin investment and a 134% jump in ETF inflows, according to the World Gold Council. However, jewellery demand fell 23% amid elevated prices. Central banks added 219.9 tonnes in Q3, up 10% year-on-year, while mine production rose 2% and recycling grew 6%, lifting total supply to a record high. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by -4.32% to 12,906 while prices rose by 454 rupees. Gold is finding support at 120530, with a break below likely testing 119995, whereas resistance is seen at 121620, and a move above could lead to 122175.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 119995-122175.

* Gold prices rose after soft labor data reinforced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.

* Challenger job cuts tripled in October, the largest increase in over two decades, with companies citing weaker consumer demand.

* China's gold holdings increased to 74.09 million fine troy ounces at the end of October from 74.06 million in the previous month.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled higher by 0.45% at 147728 as signs of a cooling U.S. labor market reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Private data revealed U.S. job losses of 153,000 in October, the largest for that month in 22 years, mainly due to cost-cutting measures and AI-driven restructuring. This fueled market bets for a 25 bps rate cut in December, with probability rising to 70% from 62% earlier. Additionally, the prolonged U.S. government shutdown delaying key economic data and risk aversion in global equities, particularly U.S. tech stocks, boosted silver’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, easing of liquidity constraints in London’s silver market supported sentiment, as large inflows from the U.S. and China replenished supplies and reduced the recent premium over Comex futures. London vaults held 24,581 tons of silver, valued at $36.5 billion, by the end of September, according to the LBMA. Investment demand remained robust, with global silver ETP holdings reaching 1.13 billion ounces by mid-2025, close to their 2021 peak, while retail demand in India rose 7% year-on-year. However, the Silver Institute projected the global supply deficit to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces this year, driven by a 1% drop in demand and a 2% increase in supply. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -3.83% to 18,927 while prices rose 659 rupees. Silver has support at 146765, below which it could test 145800, while resistance is seen at 149045, and a move above may push prices toward 150360.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 145800-150360.

* Silver rose as signs of a cooling US labor market strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

* The prolonged US government shutdown, which delayed official jobs and inflation data, also supported safe-haven demand.

* Data showed the US economy shed 153,000 jobs in October, the highest for that month in 22 years.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.63% at 5295, supported by short covering after recent sharp declines triggered by persistent oversupply concerns. Market sentiment remained weighed down as OPEC+ output increased in October, with key members resuming previously halted production while non-OPEC producers also boosted supply. Reflecting ample global availability, Saudi Arabia cut its December crude prices for Asian buyers, signaling weak regional demand. However, lingering supply risks due to U.S. restrictions on Russian oil and ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure provided partial support. China’s October crude imports rose 8.2% year-on-year to 48.36 million metric tons (11.4 million barrels per day), marking the highest refinery utilization rates of 2025. For the first ten months, cumulative imports increased 3.1% to 471 million metric tons. Meanwhile, India continued diversifying oil sources as sanctions complicated Russian crude flows, with refiners like Reliance reportedly offloading Middle Eastern cargoes. In the U.S., crude inventories surged by 5.202 million barrels in the week ending October 31, far above expectations of a 0.6-million-barrel build, though gasoline and distillate stocks declined, providing limited relief to prices. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by -9.41% to 11,387 while prices gained 33 rupees. Crude oil is finding support at 5255, below which it may test 5216, while resistance is seen at 5349, and a move above could open the way to 5404.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5216-5404.

* Crude oil gains on short covering after prices dropped as fears of a potential glut continued to weigh on the market.

* U.S. crude stocks rose more than expected on higher imports and reduced refining activity while gasoline and distillate inventories declined.

* OPEC+ output increased last month as key members resumed halted production.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled higher by 1.29% at 385.8, supported by firm demand from LNG export facilities and a smaller-than-expected U.S. storage build. Prices found strength after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ending October 31, slightly below forecasts of 34 bcf, reflecting tighter balances. With total inventories at 3,915 bcf, stocks were 0.2% below last year’s levels but 4.3% above the five-year average, highlighting comfortable yet stable supply conditions. Production levels remained strong, with LSEG data showing U.S. output averaging 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November — up from 107.0 bcfd in October and close to August’s record of 108.0 bcfd. Meanwhile, near-record LNG export demand continued to boost consumption. The EIA projected dry gas production to climb to 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, alongside record domestic demand rising to 91.6 bcfd. Average LNG exports are also forecast to reach 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, compared to a record 11.9 bcfd this year. Meteorologists expect mostly warmer-than-normal weather through mid-November, which may temporarily limit heating demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 5.91% to 19,380 while prices gained 4.9 rupees. Natural gas finds support at 379.2, below which it may test 372.5, while resistance is seen at 392.4, and a move above could open the path to 398.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 372.5-398.9.

* Natural gas climbed as near-record flows to LNG export plants boosted demand.

* Near-record LNG export flows boost demand for US gas

* EIA reports smaller-than-usual storage build for last week

Copper

Copper yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.02% at 1000.3, supported by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China and lingering supply concerns from major global producers. Market sentiment remained cautious ahead of key Chinese economic data and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy outlook for December, as uncertainty over potential rate cuts persisted amid the government data blackout. On the supply front, disruptions at mines in Indonesia and Chile, alongside lower output from Glencore and Anglo American in the first nine months of the year, continued to underpin prices. The suspension of operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian mine, which accounts for over 3% of global supply, further tightened near-term availability. Meanwhile, the Yangshan copper premium eased to $35 a ton, signaling softer Chinese demand, while copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1% from last week. China’s October copper imports dropped 9.7% to 438,000 tonnes, reflecting consumer caution amid elevated prices. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projected a global refined copper surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, followed by a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026, with refined usage expected to rise 3% in 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 0.65% to 9,738 while prices gained 0.25 rupees. Copper finds support at 998.2, and a break below could test 995.9 levels, while resistance is seen at 1003.5, with a move above potentially pushing prices toward 1006.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 995.9-1006.5.

* Copper prices rose supported by signs of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

* China’s copper imports dropped in October to 438,000 metric tons in October from 485,000 tons a month earlier, a 9.7% drop.

* Chile exported $4.99 billion worth of the metal in October, up 13.5% from the same month a year earlier.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled higher by 0.47% at 302.05, supported by extremely tight inventories in the global market outside China, though gains were capped amid weak manufacturing data from major economies. LME zinc stocks dropped sharply to just 35,200 tonnes — near their lowest since March 2023 — marking an 85% drawdown from the start of the year and intensifying supply concerns. The premium of the LME cash contract over the three-month forward widened to $170, reflecting strong near-term demand. In contrast, Chinese zinc inventories have been rising, with social stocks climbing to around 162,000 tonnes by late October from about 100,000 tonnes earlier this year, creating a stark divergence between domestic surplus and global shortage. On the production front, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global market surplus of 47,900 tonnes in August, up from 38,700 tonnes in July, with a cumulative surplus of 154,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2025. China’s refined zinc output fell about 4% month-on-month in September but surged over 20% year-on-year, while October output is expected to rise 4% MoM and 22% YoY, despite maintenance curbs in key smelting regions. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 3.95% to 2,685 while prices gained 1.4 rupees. Zinc finds support at 301.2, and a break below could test 300.1 levels, whereas resistance is seen at 302.9, with a move above likely to push prices toward 303.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 300.1-303.5.

* Zinc gains as Inventories have plunged to extremely low levels in the global zinc market outside China.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.10% from last Friday.

* However downside seen limited amid soft manufacturing PMIs in China and the US pressed against industrial sentiment.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled higher by 0.28% at 272.5, supported by optimism over improving demand prospects and constrained output growth in China. Investor interest has surged in the LME aluminium contract as the market anticipates the end of chronic oversupply, with China’s production nearing its government-imposed 45 million tonne capacity cap. The European aluminium premium climbed to $328 per tonne from $183 in June, hitting its highest level since February, reflecting tightening physical supply. Meanwhile, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped 0.2% from last Friday, signaling steady demand in the domestic market. Supply disruptions further underpinned prices, as Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline following equipment failure, and Century Aluminium curtailed production by two-thirds at its Iceland plant for similar reasons. Additionally, Alcoa announced the permanent closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite quality, tightening alumina supply globally. On the trade front, China’s unwrought aluminium and product imports jumped 35.4% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes in September, while cumulative imports for the first three quarters of 2025 rose 5.7% to 3.01 million tonnes, signaling robust consumption trends. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 2.31% to 3,085 while prices rose by 0.75 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 271.7, and a break below could test 270.7 levels, whereas resistance is seen at 273.3, with a move above likely to push prices towards 273.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 270.7-273.9.

* Aluminium gains helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

* China reiterated its priority of preventing overcapacity in metal production to curb deflationary pressures.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.20% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled higher by 2.83% at 15,056, supported by weather-related supply concerns and shrinking stocks in key producing regions. Heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have damaged standing crops, while persistent rainfall in Erode has led to disease outbreaks and storage difficulties due to high humidity. Crop losses are particularly notable in Nanded, where nearly 15% of the turmeric area has been affected. Meanwhile, turmeric stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and fresh arrivals have been minimal in recent days, keeping market sentiment firm. Despite these supportive factors, upside potential remains limited as favorable early-season rains have boosted acreage by an estimated 15–20% this year. For the 2024–25 season, the total area under turmeric is estimated at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. Market activity remains strong, especially in Duggirala, where new crop arrivals are attracting strong buyer interest and commanding a premium over older stock due to superior quality. On the export front, shipments rose by 3.31% to 80,156.56 tonnes during April–August 2025 compared to the same period last year, with August exports up 7.27% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 2.79% to 11,955 while prices rose 414. Turmeric now finds support at 14,670 and below that at 14,282, while resistance is seen at 15,336, with a move above likely pushing prices towards 15,614.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14282-15614.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14770.4 Rupees gained by 0.59 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled lower by 1.14% at 19,905 amid weak export demand following the end of the retail season and subdued buying from overseas markets. Traders attributed the decline to comfortable supplies, adequate carryover stocks, and limited export interest. Many markets remained closed or partially active due to Diwali holidays, leading to lower arrivals and muted trading volumes. However, the downside remained capped as selective buying emerged at lower levels, supported by reduced arrivals and the GST council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG exports and domestic consumption. On the supply front, farmers are estimated to hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, out of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. National production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat and Rajasthan contributing nearly 42–50 lakh bags each. Globally, lower output in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan could support prices in the medium term, despite sluggish current export activity. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 15.37% to 1,965 while prices fell 230. Jeera now finds support at 19,830 and below that at 19,750, whereas resistance is seen at 20,060, with a move above likely testing 20,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19750-20210.

* Jeera dropped due to weak export demand post retail season.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Traders attributed the fall mainly to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity on the part of foreign buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20083.5 Rupees gained by 0.3 percent.

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