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The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026-27 has turned slightly tighter as lower production reduced overall supplies and ending stocks. U.S. wheat output is projected at 1.543 billion bushels, while ending stocks are expected to decline 20% from the previous year. However, the global wheat balance sheet has improved due to larger crops in Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, which more than offset production declines in Australia and Pakistan. Global wheat production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks have all been revised higher. Improved weather conditions in major Black Sea producers continue to support global supply availability despite tighter U.S. fundamentals.

Key Highlights

• U.S. wheat production is projected to decline by 18 million bushels.
• U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 744 million bushels, down 20% year-on-year.
• Global wheat production has been revised higher due to larger Black Sea crops.
• Russia's wheat output is expected to reach 88 million tonnes.
• Global wheat ending stocks are forecast to increase to 275.4 million tonnes.

Wheat market fundamentals present a mixed picture for the 2026-27 season, with tighter supplies in the United States contrasting with improving global production prospects. The latest outlook shows U.S. wheat supplies declining as lower production reduces available stocks, although global inventories are expected to increase due to stronger harvests in several major exporting countries.

U.S. all-wheat production is projected at 1.543 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from previous estimates. The decline is primarily attributed to reduced Hard Red Winter wheat production and a lower national yield forecast of 47.0 bushels per acre. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are expected to fall to 744 million bushels, nearly 20% below the previous year's level. Despite the tighter domestic balance sheet, U.S. wheat exports remain unchanged at 775 million bushels.

The tighter U.S. outlook has been partly offset by improved global supply prospects. World wheat production is forecast to increase due to larger crops in Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Russia's wheat output has been revised higher to 88 million tonnes, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved winter wheat yields. Turkey is expected to harvest a record 22.5 million tonnes, while Ukraine's production outlook has also improved following beneficial spring weather. 

Although Australia and Pakistan are expected to produce smaller crops, the gains in major Black Sea exporters have more than compensated for these reductions. Consequently, global wheat production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks have all been revised upward.

Global wheat consumption is projected at 824.6 million tonnes, while world trade is expected to reach 212 million tonnes. Ending stocks are forecast to rise slightly to 275.4 million tonnes, reflecting comfortable global supply conditions despite tighter inventories in several exporting nations.

While lower U.S. production has tightened domestic wheat supplies, expanding harvests in key Black Sea producers are expected to keep global wheat availability comfortable and limit significant upside pressure on prices.

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