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2025-10-15 05:14:54 pm | Source: PR Agency
Diwali Gold Outlook by Chirag Mehta, CIO, Quantum AMC
Diwali Gold Outlook by Chirag Mehta, CIO, Quantum AMC

India’s Golden Tradition: How Dhanteras Sparked a 20-Year SIP Success Story

As Diwali lights up the nation, gold shines brighter than ever — not just as a symbol of prosperity, but as a testament to India’s timeless investing wisdom.

The Season of Light — and Gold

As 2025 draws to a close, the skies are once again set to sparkle. Lamps will glow brighter than the stars, homes will hum with joy, and hearts will be filled with warmth. It’s that magical time of year — Diwali, the festival that celebrates light, renewal, and prosperity.

And this year, gold seems to have stolen the show. Throughout 2025, it has dazzled the markets, recording 39 new all-time highs — an extraordinary run that has reaffirmed its reputation as the metal that never loses its shine.

But for Indians, the gleam of gold runs far deeper than market charts or financial metrics. It’s a symbol of continuity, hope, and abundance, a cultural anchor that connects generations — and an asset that has quietly built wealth for millions.

Gold: Where Culture Meets Financial Wisdom

Globally, gold is seen as a cushion against inflation and volatility. In India, it plays a dual role — an heirloom of culture and a pillar of financial security. This bond comes alive each year on Dhanteras, the most auspicious day to buy gold.

For countless Indian households, buying gold on Dhanteras is more than a festive ritual — it’s a renewed investment commitment, a small but steady step toward long-term prosperity.

In fact, India has practiced its own version of a “Gold SIP” long before the term “SIP” (Systematic Investment Plan) ever existed. Every festival — from Dhanteras and Diwali to Akshaya Tritiya and harvest celebrations — has been an opportunity to add a little more gold.

This steady, ritual-based investing is one of India’s most underrated financial traditions — a cultural SIP that blends faith, discipline, and financial foresight.

The Power of Consistency: India’s Gold SIP Story

Imagine this:
If an investor had purchased ?1,00,000 worth of gold every Dhanteras since 2005, they would have invested a total of ?20 lakh over two decades.

Today, that same disciplined approach would have created a corpus worth over ?1.08 crore, or roughly 950 grams of gold — which started as just 145 grams in the first year.

A 20-year journey of patience, faith, and discipline — and an  example of how consistent investing in gold can quietly compound into real wealth.

Gold at Record Highs — What’s Driving It?

With gold trading at historic highs, investors are asking: should I still buy now?

To answer that, we must look at the global forces shaping gold’s ascent. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains at the center of the story. With a weakening labor market and persistent inflation, the Fed faces one of its most complex challenges in years.

After a 25-basis point rate cut in September, Chair Jerome Powell signaled the possibility of two more cuts in the coming months. Rising federal debt and ballooning fiscal deficits have further strengthened gold’s role as a safe-haven asset amid weakening U.S. fundamentals.

Adding to this, the delayed release of official employment data — caused by a government shutdown — fueled investor uncertainty. Should the labor market worsen, or financial stress deepen, the Fed may resort to aggressive easing measures, adding more fuel to gold’s momentum.

The impact of Trump-era tariffs, pushing inflation to 2.9%, has led the Fed to revise its inflation outlook upward. This combination of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and fiscal imbalance has created a perfect storm — and gold continues to be the preferred shelter.

Central Banks Join the Gold Rush

It’s not just retail investors — central banks across the world are also turning to gold as they seek to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar.

As the dollar’s share of global reserves falls to around 42%, gold’s share has been steadily climbing. Nations like China, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan have been leading this quiet shift, adding hundreds of tonnes of gold to their reserves.

Every 1% re-allocation of global reserves from the dollar to gold adds roughly 530 tonnes of demand — a significant structural boost that keeps gold’s long-term outlook robust.

These moves reflect growing concerns over debt, deficits, and the reliability of fiat currencies — reinforcing gold’s unique position as a universal store of value.

Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term Strength

Even as gold scales new highs, markets never move in straight lines. A short phase of correction or consolidation is always possible.

Past sell-offs — like in 2008 — were triggered only by extreme liquidity shocks. Similarly, if geopolitical tensions ease, such as through a peace accord between Israel and Hamas, some of gold’s “geopolitical premium” could fade in the short run.

But such dips should be seen as temporary pauses, not trend reversals. The underlying forces — persistent inflation, widening fiscal deficits, global economic uncertainty, and diversification by central banks — all remain strongly in gold’s favor.

The Enduring Shine of Discipline

Gold has survived wars, recessions, policy shifts, and political upheavals — and still it shines.

For modern investors, the lesson is timeless: while short-term timing is impossible, discipline and consistency always win.

Just as Indian families have done for generations, gradually building gold holdings — one Dhanteras at a time — remains one of the most sensible, stable, and symbolic investment strategies.

So as the lamps of Diwali fill our homes with light, let’s also celebrate the golden glow of financial wisdom — a reminder that sometimes, the best investments are those rooted in tradition.

This Diwali, may your homes be bright, your hearts be full — and your investments, golden.

 

 

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