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Summary

Dhaniya prices on the NCDEX experienced a 6.63% increase in January due to factors such as low production areas, weather concerns, and festival demand. However, profit booking occurred after reaching 8150 levels, influenced by substantial market stocks. Planting scenarios showed a significant shift from last year, with Gujarat witnessing a 50% decrease and MP-Rajasthan experiencing a 30-35% reduction. Despite current slack demand, projections suggest an imminent upswing. Export dynamics played a crucial role, with robust demand mitigating excessive price losses. The coriander market landscape is further complicated by weather alerts in North Rajasthan and a waiting game for exporters amid price declines. The outlook hints at a potential price surge post-March 15, leading to market fluctuations and cautious optimism among exporters.

Conclusion

In January, Dhaniya prices rose by 6.63%, despite profit booking at the 8150 level. The market was supported by heavy stocks and a shift in planting scenarios, particularly in Gujarat. Despite a weaker production outlook, robust export demand and festive expectations kept prices from excessive losses. All-India Dhaniya arrivals decreased by -35.76% compared to the previous month. Sluggish buying in anticipation of new supplies kept prices subdued. The forecast for February suggests a range-bound trading pattern with potential fluctuations within a specified price band. Factors such as low production areas, weather concerns, festival demand, and anticipation of a surge in prices post-March 15 contribute to the overall market sentiment. Despite sluggish demand, robust export demand and expectations of a weaker production outlook are expected to support prices. Traders and investors should closely monitor market developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate potential fluctuations in coriander prices. A buy near the 7500/7550 zone with a stop-loss near to 7150 is recommended, with an objective till 8100-8200 levels on the higher side.