Debt and Forex Market Update by CareEdge Ratings

Contents
* Key Global Developments
* IMF raises global growth forecast
* JGB yields rise
* ECB pauses rate cuts
* Fed likely to hold rates in July
India Debt & FX Market Trends
* Inflation continues on a downward trajectory
* Cumulative rainfall 7% above the LPA
* Liquidity conditions comfortable
* VRRR auctions push the call rate temporarily above the repo rate
* 10Y GSec yield inches up; Yield curve steepens
* Bank credit & deposit growth eases vs last year
* Key banking sector rates yet to fully reflect repo rate cuts
* Slight dip in CD issuances; Sharp rise in CP issuances
* Corporate bond issuances surge
* Goods deficit widens in Q1; Services surplus rises
* FPI outflows continue for second straight month in July
* Rupee weakens over the past month, volatility stays low
IMF Raises Global Growth Forecast
* The IMF has raised its global growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, driven by stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs and lower effective US tariff rates (the US effective tariff rate underlying the IMF’s July projections is 17.3%, down from 24.4% in April). A weaker dollar is also cushioning the tariff impact on US trading partners.
* However, growth projections for 2025 and 2026 remain below the 2024 outcome of 3.3% and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%.
* Inflation is expected to stay above target in the US but remain more subdued in other major economies.
* Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.
JGB Yields Rise
* 10Y, 20Y and 30Y JGB yields rose by 21, 24 and 16 bps, respectively, over the past month.
* Long-end yields up on fiscal concerns and reduced demand from Japanese life insurance companies.
* Elevated inflation (3.3% in June vs 2% target) supports further monetary policy normalisation.
* BoJ likely to hold rates in July. However, the odds of an October hike have risen.
ECB Pauses Rate Cuts
* EU inflation hit the ECB’s 2% target in June.
* ECB kept policy rates on hold in July’s meeting, marking its first pause since July 2024.
* ECB is likely to stay on hold this year, though downside growth risks from tariffs and a stronger euro could prompt a final rate cut later this year.
Fed Likely to Hold Rates in July
* Tariff impact on US consumer prices is starting to show. US inflation rose to 2.7% in June (vs 2.4% in May), the highest since February.
* The labor market has loosened but the unemployment rate remains well below the historical average.
* We expect the Fed to stay on hold in its July meeting. Markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year (in September and December).
Inflation Continues on a Downward Trajectory
* Sustained easing in CPI inflation was primarily driven by moderation in food inflation and a favourable base effect.
* The rise in core CPI is not broad-based and is mainly attributed to double-digit inflation in precious metals.
* We expect average CPI inflation to marginally ease from 2.7% in Q1 FY26 to 2.6% in Q2 FY26, before rising to above 4% in Q4 FY26.
Cumulative Rainfall 7% Above the LPA
* Southwest monsoon has been 7% above the Long Period Average (LPA) as of 28 July 2025.
* With rainfall projected to be above normal in July, the prospects for agricultural output remain favourable.
* Total sown area has increased by 4% YoY as of 25 July 2025. Despite some slowdown in sowing, the overall sowing progress remains upbeat.
Liquidity Conditions Comfortable
* Average banking system liquidity surplus rose to Rs 3.2 lakh crore in July (up to 24 July) from Rs 2.7 lakh crore in June.
* Core liquidity surplus surged to Rs 5.8 lakh crore as of 27 June.
* The RBI conducted VRRR auctions of varying maturities to manage the evolving liquidity conditions.
* The banking system liquidity surplus currently stands around 1.1% of NDTL. We expect the RBI to maintain the surplus in the range of 1-1.5%
VRRR Auctions Push Call Rate Temporarily Above the Repo Rate
* On average, the WACR was 18 bps below the policy rate in July (up to 24 July), compared to 21 bps in June.
* On 22 and 23 July, the WACR exceeded the repo rate before aligning with it thereafter.
10Y GSec Yield Inches Up; Yield Curve Steepens
* India 10Y GSec yield rose by around 7 bps over the past month.
* Higher UST yields added some upward pressure.
* Domestic yields also rose as RBI Governor signaled future rate moves will hinge on the 6–12 month inflation outlook, not current dynamics. He also stressed that the shift to a ‘neutral’ stance raises the bar for any rate cut.
* The yield curve has steepened, with short-end yields falling and long-end yields rising.
* RBI front-loaded easing with a 50 bps repo rate cut in June and shifted its stance to neutral. We do not expect further rate cuts unless downside risks to growth materialise.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer










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