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Nifty

On the daily timeframe, the index continues to drift lower, maintaining its bearish price structure with a clear lack of conviction during pullback phases. Although the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory and ADX is gradually easing from elevated levels coupled with an OI PCR near the 0.80 zone; there is scope for a short-term relief rally within the broader downtrend. However, the overall market structure remains weak. Immediate resistance is placed at the 23000 strike based on OI concentration for the truncated week. Beyond this, the 20 DEMA positioned around 23730, along with the recent gap near 23620, is likely to act as a stiff supply zone in the near term. A meaningful and durable reversal would require confirmation on the weekly timeframe. On the downside, any breach below 22800 during the week could trigger an accelerated decline towards the 22260–22000 zone. If the bearish momentum persists, the index may further gravitate towards a key demand zone between 21930 (200 WEMA support) and 21620 (200 MEMA support). From a macro standpoint, elevated USD/INR levels, firm crude prices above $90 per barrel, sustained FII outflows, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to act as structural headwinds, capping upside potential. The preferred approach remains to sell on rise as long as the index sustains below the critical resistance band of 23620–23730. The broader trading range for the upcoming series is likely to remain between 23500 and 22500 as of now. Traders are advised to avoid aggressive long positions and instead focus on disciplined risk management along with appropriate hedging strategies.

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