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Gold

Gold settled down 0.28% at Rs 150,809, pressured by rising crude oil prices that heightened inflation concerns, lifted Treasury yields, and reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening at this week’s policy meeting. Recent US inflation data showed consumer prices accelerating in August, while underlying inflation recorded its largest monthly increase in four months. Markets are pricing a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates on Friday as persistent inflation and resilient economic growth increase expectations of further tightening by major central banks. Rising energy prices and limited progress in Middle East diplomacy continue to support inflation concerns, with a meeting involving Iran and other Gulf states postponed. For the week ended September 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced net long positions by 1,263 contracts to 139,548 contracts, indicating some moderation in bullish positioning. Physical demand in India remained subdued as volatile prices discouraged purchases, with dealers offering discounts of up to $75 per ounce over official domestic prices, wider than the previous week’s $54 discount. In contrast, Chinese bullion demand remained firm, with gold trading at an $8 per ounce premium to global prices. Singapore gold traded between a $1 discount and $1.70 premium, while Hong Kong prices ranged from a $0.50 discount to a $1.70 premium and Japan from a $0.25 discount to a $0.50 premium. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion, equivalent to around 762,723 gold bars. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.38% to 9,200 while prices fell Rs 421. Gold is currently finding support at Rs 150,045, and a break below this level could expose Rs 149,280. Resistance is placed at Rs 151,565, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs 152,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149280-152320.

* Gold prices eased as a rally in crude oil underscored inflation risks, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike.

* 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at near two-decade high

* Oil rises 2% after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure

Silver

Silver settled down 0.25% at Rs 232,118 as investors weighed Middle East tensions and positioned ahead of key monetary policy meetings by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points this week amid persistent inflation concerns. U.S. consumer inflation remained at 3.4% in August, unchanged from July and in line with forecasts, while monthly CPI increased 0.4%, marking its strongest rise in three months. U.S. producer prices also accelerated in August as higher wholesale energy costs added to inflationary pressure, while labour market data continued to indicate resilient employment conditions. For the week ended September 8, COMEX silver speculators increased net long positions by 2,006 contracts to 14,176, indicating stronger bullish positioning despite recent price weakness. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at approximately $52.7 billion, equivalent to around 940,423 silver bars. The global silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity constraints. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand expected to decline 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%, supported by stronger U.S. investment demand. Total global supply is expected to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Technically, the silver market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.44% to 13,499 while prices fell Rs 572. Silver is currently finding support at Rs 230,100, and a break below this level could expose Rs 228,085. Resistance is placed at Rs 233,885, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs 235,655.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228085-235655.

* Silver drifts lower on firmer dollar, rising oil and bond yields

* The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered around 5 percent, marking the highest level since October 2023.

* The dollar held near a two-week high on hawkish Fed bets and amid renewed West Asia tensions.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled sharply higher by 5.06% at Rs 10,209, driven by mounting concerns over tightening global supplies after Saudi Arabia closed a critical pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz following a drone attack. Supply risks intensified after a highly anticipated meeting between Iran and Gulf States in Oman was postponed, while Iran reported that a supertanker caught fire after striking naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz and rejected renewed peace talks with the United States until its demands are addressed. Saudi Arabia also warned of a firm response following missile and drone attacks by Yemen's Houthis on several Saudi cities, keeping geopolitical risk elevated across the Middle East. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production increased by around 85,000 barrels per day to a record 13.95 million barrels per day in the week ended September 4, surpassing the previous record of 13.86 million barrels per day. U.S. crude inventories declined by only 0.391 million barrels, below expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel draw, while stocks at Cushing fell 0.684 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 90,000 barrels per day, whereas gasoline inventories rose 1.269 million barrels and distillate stocks increased 2.087 million barrels, both indicating weaker-than-expected inventory draws. Net U.S. crude imports increased by 1.12 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth forecast. The International Energy Agency expects further reductions in global oil supply and demand, with delayed restoration of Middle East flows potentially extending into 2027. The IEA also warned that shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity could increase market tightness. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 9.52% to 17,484 while prices gained Rs 492. Support is placed at Rs 9,852, and a break below could expose Rs 9,496. Resistance is seen at Rs 10,401, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs 10,594.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9496-10594.

* Crude oil rose amid fears of a tightening oil market after Saudi Arabia closed a critical pipeline.

* Adding to concerns over global supplies, a highly anticipated meeting in Oman between Iran and Gulf States was postponed.

* Iran claimed that a supertanker caught fire after striking naval mines while attempting to pass through a restricted area.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 0.65% at Rs 280.2, supported by a decline in daily U.S. production and forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather through the end of September, which could sustain cooling demand. LSEG reported average Lower 48 gas output at 113.2 billion cubic feet per day in September, rising from the August monthly record of 112.2 bcfd, although daily production was expected to fall to a two-month low of 108.4 bcfd on Tuesday. Record production and mild spring weather have kept U.S. natural gas inventories above the five-year average since March. LSEG expects average Lower 48 demand, including exports, to decline from 108.4 bcfd this week to 106.1 bcfd next week, with forecasts revised lower from the previous outlook. Average gas flows to nine major U.S. LNG export plants increased to 18.3 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although they remained below the monthly record of 18.8 bcfd recorded in April. Weekly storage data showed U.S. energy firms injected 40 bcf of natural gas during the week ended September 4, above market expectations of 31 bcf but below the 69-bcf injection recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average increase of 52 bcf. Total inventories rose to 3.254 tcf, 2.4% below last year’s level but 4.8% above the five-year average. The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to increase from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027. Domestic gas consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 17.89% to 32,086 while prices gained Rs 1.8. Natural gas is finding support at Rs 276.6, and a break below this level could expose Rs 272.9. Resistance is placed at Rs 283.7, while a sustained move above could lead prices toward Rs 287.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.9-287.1.

* Natural gas edged up on a drop in daily output and forecasts for the weather to remain warmer than normal.

* Daily US Lower 48 gas output heads for two-month low of 108.4 bcfd

* Storage surplus likely narrowed to 3.6% above five-year norm before Thursday's EIA report

Copper

Copper settled 0.37% higher at Rs 1,365.55, supported by low-level buying after prices declined as fresh deliveries into London warehouses eased immediate concerns over supply tightness. LME-registered warehouse stocks increased 3.59% to 242,900 tonnes, while the LME cash contract traded at a discount of up to $85.75 per tonne to the three-month contract, indicating improved nearby availability. U.S. COMEX copper stocks remained largely unchanged at 767,599 short tons, equivalent to around 696,400 tonnes. However, the Yangshan copper premium rose to $100 per tonne, its highest level since mid-August, reflecting firm physical demand in China. Chinese imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-August imports fell 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports declined to 19.49 million tonnes during the first eight months from 20.06 million tonnes a year earlier. Chilean copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes, with severe weather conditions disrupting mining operations in the northern region. Codelco production declined 5% to 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida output slumped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes; Collahuasi production increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. The International Copper Study Group reported a 60,000-tonne refined copper deficit in June, compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the market remained in a 131,000-tonne surplus during the first six months of the year. Refined production stood at 2.37 million tonnes against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes in June. Technically, the copper market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.97% to 9,383 while prices gained Rs 5.1. Copper is finding support at Rs 1,354.8, and a break below this level could expose Rs 1,344. Resistance is placed at Rs 1,371.9, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 1,378.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1344-1378.2.

* Copper recovered from losses on low level buying after prices dropped as fresh deliveries to London warehouses eased supply concerns.

* Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses jumped 3.59% to 242,900 tons

* LME cash contract traded at a discount of as much as $85.75 a ton to the three-month contract.

Zinc settled 0.79% higher at Rs 417.2 as the market faced significant supply pressures from production disruptions and tightening concentrate availability. Several mines, including operations in China, have experienced disruptions, while heightened Middle East tensions have restricted Iranian ore shipments. Major mines such as Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska have also recorded lower output as producers work through lower-grade sections of their ore bodies. LME warehouse inventories remain low relative to historical levels, while physical zinc availability outside China remains particularly tight. Sharply lower smelter treatment charges further signal constrained availability of zinc concentrate for processing. However, gains remained limited as a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on metals. Expectations of increased Chinese zinc exports to LME warehouses also capped upside, while a sharp pullback in LME copper amid changing tariff expectations added pressure across the base metals complex. Nexa reported Q2 2026 zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes, up 8% year-on-year, supported mainly by higher ore grades. Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in H1 2026, down 21% year-on-year, while maintaining its annual guidance at 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes during H1 2026, representing 48% of its full-year guidance. The global refined zinc market recorded a 31,400-tonne deficit in June compared with a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first six months still showed a 120,000-tonne surplus. Technically, zinc is under short covering, with open interest declining 5.88% to 2,257 while prices gained Rs 3.25. Support is placed at Rs 411, and a break below could expose Rs 404.7. Resistance is seen at Rs 420.8, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs 424.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 404.7-424.3.

* Zinc gains as the market faced significant supply pressures.

* Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability.

* Major zinc mines, including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska, have seen output decline.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.24% higher at Rs 348.9 as tight physical availability supported prices, with LME inventories remaining near a 36-year low and SHFE stockpiles continuing to decline. However, the upside remained limited as several smelters restart curtailed capacity and pursue expansion projects, while higher Chinese exports could improve availability. Rising oil prices amid renewed Middle East supply concerns added to inflationary pressure, while a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike also capped gains. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict has disrupted aluminium supply from the Middle East, with GCC production falling 44% year-on-year in July; the region accounted for around 10% of global output before the conflict. Emirates Global Aluminium said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% capacity and expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027. Meanwhile, Alunorte in Brazil temporarily reduced production to 50% capacity in August before restoring full output. China exported 626,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in August, down from 643,000 tonnes in July, while January-August exports rose 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. Japanese aluminium stocks fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at the end of July. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes after operational disruptions in Western Australia. Global primary aluminium output fell 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July. China’s August aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August output rose 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. Technically, aluminium is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.02% to 3,247 while prices gained Rs 0.85. Support is placed at Rs 347.1, and a break below could expose Rs 345.4. Resistance is seen at Rs 350.1, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs 351.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345.4-351.4.

* Aluminium gains as LME inventories remained close to a 36-year low, while SHFE stockpiles continued to fall, pointing to limited availability.

* However upside was capped as oil prices rose on renewed Middle East supply concerns, adding to inflation worries.

* Rising aluminum exports from top producer China could also help ease supply constraints and limit price gains.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.08% lower at Rs 20,892 as renewed monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over dry weather and improved the outlook for the upcoming crop. Reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have also improved, ensuring better water availability during the vegetative phase, while re-sowing in North Karnataka was completed following rainfall. However, downside remained limited by structurally tight supplies, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns that lower sowing expansion in key growing regions could restrict upcoming production. Industry estimates place carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the supply buffer. Continued adverse weather during early crop development could still affect yields, while El Nino concerns remain a factor for the newly sown crop. At the same time, increased farmer selling during the peak harvest period has added near-term pressure. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric continues to support compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports increased 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports rose 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China’s cumulative imports reached 2,108 tonnes, up 2,710%, while Oman imports rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes. Strong export growth was also recorded in Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, supporting overall demand. In Nizamabad, spot prices ended at Rs 20,157.95, down 1.25%. Technically, turmeric is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.1% to 36,115 while prices declined Rs 228. Support is placed at Rs 20,618, and a break below could expose Rs 20,344. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,252, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs 21,612.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20344-21612.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity eased dry-weather fears.

* Filling up of key reservoirs ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20157.95 Rupees dropped by -1.25 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.19% higher at Rs 21,605 as supply of premium-quality bold seeds tightened rapidly, with export-grade, high-purity varieties becoming increasingly scarce despite stable overall physical availability. Daily arrivals across major markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started tapering, supporting prices, while outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable quantities. However, gains remained limited as farmers continued to liquidate stocks for immediate cash flow ahead of the upcoming season. Favourable weather across North-West India allowed harvesting and drying to progress quickly, accelerating deliveries, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced urgency among spot buyers. Large industrial spice grinders have adopted a cautious approach, limiting bulk purchases and relying on hand-to-mouth buying. Middle East geopolitical instability has also affected logistics and demand from traditional buyers, although European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. Current estimates indicate Indian jeera production at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Outside India, China production is estimated at 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Singapore, Oman and Argentina recorded strong growth, but this was insufficient to offset the broader decline. Unjha spot prices ended at Rs 20,994.55, down 0.53%. Technically, jeera is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 11.41% to 7,179 while prices gained Rs 40. Support is placed at Rs 21,420, and a break below could expose Rs 21,230. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,790, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs 21,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21230-21970.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20994.55 Rupees dropped by -0.53 percent.

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