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Gold

Gold prices settled 1.02% lower at Rs151,230 as a surge in oil prices intensified inflation concerns and increased expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike at this week’s policy meeting. Markets are now pricing an 87% probability of a rate hike, up sharply from 67% before last week’s inflation data, while expectations of a Bank of Japan rate increase on Friday further strengthened the outlook for tighter global monetary policy. Rising energy prices and persistent Middle East tensions continued to weigh on sentiment, with Iran-Gulf diplomacy facing setbacks after a scheduled meeting was postponed. For the week ended September 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced net long positions by 1,263 contracts to 139,548, indicating some moderation in bullish positioning. Physical demand in India remained subdued as volatile domestic prices discouraged purchases, with dealers offering discounts of up to $75 an ounce versus $54 previously. In contrast, Chinese bullion demand remained firm, with gold trading at an $8 premium to the global benchmark, compared with premiums of $3.50-$9 last week. Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan markets traded within narrow discount-to-premium ranges. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July 2026, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at approximately $1.2 trillion, equivalent to around 762,723 gold bars. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1% to 9,522 while prices fell Rs1,554, indicating a reduction in existing long positions. Gold is currently finding support near Rs150,180, and a sustained break below this level could trigger further weakness toward Rs149,135. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near Rs151,860, and a decisive move above this level could strengthen the recovery toward Rs152,495.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149135-152495.

* Gold eased as a surge in oil prices stoked inflation concerns, boosting expectations that Fed may raise interest rates

* Fed interest rate decision due on Wednesday

* Traders price in 87% chance of Fed rate hike this week

Silver

Silver prices settled 0.97% lower at Rs232,690, pressured by surging oil prices and growing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. Oil prices climbed toward four-month highs after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following drone attacks, adding to inflationary pressures from the prolonged Middle East crisis. Markets are pricing in around an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike on Wednesday. U.S. consumer inflation remained at 3.4% in August, while monthly CPI increased 0.4%, its strongest rise in three months. Producer prices also accelerated as higher wholesale energy costs added to inflation pressures, while employment data continued to indicate resilience in the labor market. For the week ended September 8, COMEX silver speculators increased net long positions by 2,006 contracts to 14,176, indicating relatively stronger bullish positioning despite the recent price weakness. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July 2026, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion, equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, maintaining the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025, despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%, supported by stronger U.S. buying. Global supply is forecast to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Technically, the silver market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.13% to 13,559 while prices declined Rs2,284, indicating fresh short positions entering the market. Silver is currently finding support near Rs230,475, and a sustained break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs228,255. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs234,190, while a decisive move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs235,685.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228255-235685.

* Silver dropped weighed down by surging oil prices and bets on tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy.

* Markets are currently pricing in around an 87% chance that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

* Data showed US consumer inflation steadied at 3.4% in August, the same as in July and in line with forecasts.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 1.99% higher at Rs9,717, supported by concerns that energy supplies from the Persian Gulf could face further disruptions following a drone attack on a critical Saudi Arabian pipeline. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said the pipeline was being closed as a precaution, while reports of Houthi forces seizing a strategic Red Sea island and port city added to concerns over regional shipping. Most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has already been halted, while a planned meeting between Iran and several Gulf Arab countries was indefinitely postponed, further increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Russia’s oil production declined by 160,000 barrels per day in August from July to 8.718 million bpd, with Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure contributing to lower output. Saudi Arabia’s crude production also fell sharply by 1.9 million barrels per day to 6.238 million bpd in August, its lowest level since 1990. U.S. crude inventories declined by 0.391 million barrels in the week ended September 4, below expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks fell 0.684 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 90,000 barrels per day, but gasoline inventories rose 1.269 million barrels and distillate stocks increased 2.087 million barrels. Net U.S. crude imports climbed by 1.12 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand growth forecast. The IEA warned that prolonged conflict could delay the return of normal Middle East supply flows into 2027, with shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity increasing the risk of tighter markets. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest declining 9.05% to 15,964 while prices gained Rs190, indicating closure of short positions. Crude oil is currently finding support near Rs9,561, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs9,404. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs9,959, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen the recovery toward Rs10,200.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9404-10200.

* Crude oil jumped on concerns that energy supplies from the Persian Gulf would be further diminished by a drone attack.

* East-West pipeline shutdown threatens up to 4% of global oil supply

* Gulf-Iran meeting on Strait of Hormuz postponed, Oman says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 3.26% higher at Rs278.4, supported by a decline in daily U.S. output, stronger liquefied natural gas exports and gains in oil futures. LSEG data showed average Lower 48 gas production at 113.4 bcfd so far in September, above August’s monthly record of 112.2 bcfd, although daily output was expected to decline to a two-week low of 112.8 bcfd. Warmer-than-normal weather is forecast through September 29, supporting gas consumption by power generators as cooling demand remains elevated, with gas-fired plants accounting for about 40% of U.S. power generation. LSEG expects Lower 48 gas demand, including exports, to decline from 109.5 bcfd this week to 107.3 bcfd next week. Average gas flows to nine major U.S. LNG export facilities increased to 18.3 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although still below the record 18.8 bcfd reached in April. U.S. energy firms added 40 bcf to natural gas storage during the week ended September 4, exceeding expectations for a 31-bcf build and taking inventories to 3.254 tcf. Stocks were 2.4% below last year’s level but 4.8% above the five-year average, indicating comfortable supply conditions despite improving demand. The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are projected to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, natural gas is under short covering, with open interest falling sharply by 29.72% to 39,077 while prices gained Rs8.8, indicating closure of short positions. Support is placed near Rs273.2, and a break below this level could drag prices toward Rs268.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs281.7, while a sustained move above it could open the way toward Rs285.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 268.1-285.1.

* Natural gas climbed on a drop in daily output, an increase in daily liquefied natural gas exports and a jump in oil futures.

* Cove Point maintenance from around Sept. 19 could curb exports by 0.8 bcfd

* Lower 48 output hit a monthly record in August before slipping to a two-week low

Copper

Copper prices settled 1.3% lower at Rs1,360.45, pressured by uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports and the resulting impact on inventory flows. The White House has yet to decide on tariffs, with officials weighing higher manufacturing costs against efforts to encourage domestic supply. Broader sentiment also weakened as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns ahead of Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy meetings. COMEX warehouse stocks declined 0.02% to 767,504 short tons, or 696,268 metric tons, marking the first reduction since mid-June after tariff-driven inflows had lifted U.S. inventories. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products fell to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tons. Copper concentrate imports also fell to 19.49 million tons in the first eight months from 20.06 million tons a year earlier. Chilean copper production dropped 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tons, with severe storms disrupting mining operations. Codelco output declined 5% to 112,800 tons, while Escondida production fell 22.1% to 89,400 tons; Collahuasi output rose 12.3% to 38,400 tons. The International Copper Study Group reported a 60,000-ton refined copper deficit in June, compared with a 15,000-ton surplus in May, although the first-half market remained in a 131,000-ton surplus. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.07% to 9,771 while prices fell Rs17.9, indicating some reduction in existing long positions. Copper is currently finding support near Rs1,352.8, and a sustained break below this level could extend the decline toward Rs1,345.1. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs1,369.1, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen the recovery toward Rs1,377.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1345.1-1377.7.

* Copper fell as uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper continued to weigh on sentiment.

* Stocks in COMEX warehouses declined for the first time since mid-June, slipping 0.02% from a day earlier to 696,268 metric tons.

* For the week to Sept. 8, COMEX copper speculators added 9,016 net-long contracts to 82,017.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.15% lower at Rs413.95, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while increasing expectations of Chinese zinc exports into the LME added further pressure. The decline was also compounded by a sharp pullback in LME copper amid uncertainty over potential U.S. tariff measures. However, downside remained limited as the zinc market continued to face significant supply constraints. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability, while heightened Middle East tensions have restricted Iranian ore shipments. Major mines such as Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska are experiencing lower output as operations move through lower-grade ore sections. LME inventories remain low by historical standards, while physical zinc availability outside China remains particularly tight. Lower smelter treatment charges further indicate constrained concentrate supply, although rising Chinese exports could improve availability in other markets. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories declined 3.3% from the previous Friday. Nexa reported second-quarter zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported first-half own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, but maintained its 2026 guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market remained in a 120,000-tonne surplus. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.35% to 2,398 while prices fell Rs4.8, indicating a reduction in existing long positions. Zinc is currently finding support near Rs410.9, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs407.7. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs416.9, while a decisive move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs419.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 407.7-419.7.

* Zinc dropped as a stronger US dollar and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on the metal.

* Pressure also seen amid driven by mounting expectations of Chinese export deliveries onto the LME.

* However downside seen limited as the market faced significant supply pressures.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled marginally lower by 0.03% at Rs348.05 as rising oil prices on renewed Middle East supply concerns increased inflation worries, while a firmer U.S. dollar and stronger expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike also weighed on sentiment. However, downside remained limited as the aluminium market continued to face tight supply conditions. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted Middle East aluminium production, with Gulf Cooperation Council output plunging 44% year-on-year to 293,000 tonnes in July from 523,000 tonnes, while the region’s daily production fell more than 10% month-on-month to 9,800 tonnes. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, although stronger Chinese production partly offset Gulf losses, with China producing an estimated 3.866 million tonnes, up 2.7% year-on-year. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE stocks continued to decline, highlighting limited physical availability. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports declined to 626,000 tonnes in August from 643,000 tonnes in July, although January-August exports increased 16.7% year-on-year to 4.67 million tonnes. EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% capacity and expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027, while Alunorte restored production to full capacity after a temporary reduction. Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes due to operational disruptions in Western Australia. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.88% to 3,348 while prices fell Rs0.1, indicating a reduction in existing long positions. Aluminium is currently finding support near Rs346.4, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs344.7. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs349.6, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen the recovery toward Rs351.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 344.7-351.1.

* Aluminium dropped as oil prices rose on renewed Middle East supply concerns, adding to inflation worries.

* LME inventories remained close to a 36-year low, while SHFE stockpiles continued to fall, pointing to limited availability.

* Rising aluminum exports from top producer China could also help ease supply constraints and limit price gains.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 2.73% higher at Rs21,120 amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, concerns over deficient rainfall and fears of El Nino affecting the crop currently being sown, while lower-than-expected expansion in acreage across key growing regions raised concerns over upcoming production. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could adversely affect yields, while carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years, tightening overall availability. However, upside remained limited as monsoon activity revived across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, easing concerns over moisture availability. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are also supporting water availability during the vegetative phase, while re-sowing in North Karnataka was completed following rainfall and crop conditions improved. European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, creating discounts for commercial-grade turmeric, while demand for IPM-certified turmeric continued to support compliant stocks. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks of around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window also created pressure, while traders monitored whether improved rainfall would translate into sustained production. India’s turmeric exports increased 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports rose 8% to 51,987 tonnes from 47,950 tonnes. China imports reached 2,108 tonnes cumulatively, up 2,710%, while Oman shipments rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes. Strong export growth was also recorded in Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric prices ended at Rs20,413.35, gaining 0.98%. Technically, turmeric is under fresh buying, with open interest increasing 0.39% to 36,080 while prices gained Rs562, indicating fresh long positions. Turmeric is currently finding support near Rs20,510, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs19,900. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs21,540, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen prices toward Rs21,960.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19900-21960.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20413.35 Rupees gained by 0.98 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 0.33% higher at Rs21,565, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as supplies of export-grade high-purity varieties declined faster than overall physical availability. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to taper, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities. However, upside remained limited as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks for cash flow ahead of the next season, while favorable weather allowed faster harvesting and drying. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced urgency for spot procurement, and large industrial spice grinders continue to follow hand-to-mouth buying rather than bulk purchases. Middle East geopolitical tensions are also affecting logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Production estimates suggest India’s current-season jeera output at 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China’s production estimate has been reduced to 70,000-80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Despite the overall decline, exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina recorded strong growth. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs20,994.55, down 0.53%. Technically, jeera is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 15.8% to 6,444 while prices gained Rs70, indicating fresh long formation. Jeera is currently finding support near Rs21,280, and a sustained break below this level could lead to a test of Rs20,990. On the upside, resistance is placed near Rs21,790, while a decisive move above this level could strengthen prices toward Rs22,010.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20990-22010.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20994.55 Rupees dropped by -0.53 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views