IGI Logo

The 2026/27 U.S. soybean outlook turned more supportive, with higher production and exports but lower ending stocks. Production increased 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion, supported by higher harvested area and a 52.8-bushel-per-acre yield. Exports were raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion, while ending stocks declined 10 million to 310 million bushels. The season-average soybean price forecast rose $0.60 to $12.00 per bushel, while soybean meal increased $30 to $340 per short ton. Globally, oilseed production rose on higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed output. Global soybean production increased to 442.3 million tonnes, while ending stocks fell to 124.0 million tonnes.

Key Highlights

•             U.S. soybean production increased 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels.

•             Soybean exports were raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion.

•             U.S. soybean ending stocks declined 10 million bushels to 310 million.

•             U.S. soybean price forecast increased $0.60 to $12.00 per bushel.

•             Global soybean stocks fell 0.2 million tonnes to 124.0 million tonnes.

U.S. soybean fundamentals strengthened for 2026/27, with production and exports both revised higher while ending stocks declined. Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million from the previous forecast. The increase reflects a 0.1-million-acre rise in harvested area and a slightly higher yield of 52.8 bushels per acre. The crush forecast remained unchanged.

Export prospects provided additional support to the U.S. balance sheet, with soybean exports raised 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion. As a result, projected ending stocks declined 10 million bushels to 310 million. The tighter stock outlook, combined with expectations for firmer market conditions, lifted the U.S. season-average soybean price forecast by $0.60 to $12.00 per bushel. The soybean meal price was also increased $30 to $340 per short ton, while soybean oil remained unchanged at 70 cents per pound.

Global oilseed fundamentals were also revised higher, primarily due to stronger rapeseed and sunflowerseed production. Rapeseed output increased 1.9 million tonnes on higher production in Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uruguay. Sunflowerseed production rose 1.0 million tonnes, supported by increased output from Kazakhstan, Russia and the European Union.

The global soybean outlook showed higher production, crush and exports but lower ending stocks. Global soybean production increased 0.1 million tonnes to 442.3 million, with stronger U.S. and Canadian output partly offset by lower production in India and the EU. Higher exports from the U.S., Canada, Benin and Ukraine supported global trade, while imports increased mainly in the EU, India and Japan. Global soybean ending stocks declined 0.2 million tonnes to 124.0 million, largely due to lower U.S. stocks.

Higher U.S. exports, tighter ending stocks and stronger price forecasts provide a supportive backdrop, despite increased production and ample global oilseed availability.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer